TE · LV · 136 lines since 2023
Michael Mayer Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Michael Mayer, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 22% — we make it 17%
- Line 13.5 yds longest rec — we project 14 (P(over) 52%)
- Line 28.5 rec yds — we project 26 (P(over) 46%)
- Line 3.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 43%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 15, under 22 (37 graded)
- Receptions over 15, under 20 (35 graded)
- Anytime TD over 4, under 38 (42 graded)
- Longest reception over 6, under 7 (13 graded)
Our calls on him: model 46–26 · Starters out on defense 5–0 · Freezing 1–0 · Dome team outdoors 7–4 · Wind 15+ mph 2–0 · Pre-snap motion 2–1 · Short week 1–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 22% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 13.5 | 14 | 52% / 48% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 26 | 46% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 19 | 40% / 51% | 82 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 56% | 8 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 21% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 25 | 55% / 50% | 32 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 61% / 46% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 26 | 25% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 5.5 | 3 | 21% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 34 | 41% / 50% | 32 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 35% / 51% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 14.5 | 11 | 36% / 51% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 18 | 20% / 51% | 47 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 15.5 | 8.9 | 27% / 51% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 12 | 14% / 51% | 89 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 14% / 57% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 10.5 | 6.7 | 33% / 49% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 9.5 | 44% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 10.5 | 7.6 | 35% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 11 | 38% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 36% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | – | – / 13% | – | void |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 11.5 | 11 | 47% / 51% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 16 | 41% / 51% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 13.5 | 13 | 48% / 51% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 20 | 40% / 52% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 24% / 40% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 12.5 | 12 | 45% / 49% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 18 | 40% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 51% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 8.5 | 12 | 63% / 48% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 18 | 68% / 51% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 65% / 44% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 16.5 | 11 | 29% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 20 | 17% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 5.5 | 3 | 14% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 14.5 | 9.7 | 33% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 13 | 21% / 50% | 50 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 15% / 49% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | – | – / 20% | – | void |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 10.5 | 8.0 | 41% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 10 | 41% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 12.5 | 10 | 42% / 48% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 14 | 40% / 51% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 41% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 10.5 | 11 | 53% / 50% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 16 | 56% / 50% | 38 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 61% / 54% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 11 | 45% / 50% | 14 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 14 | 39% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 31% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 15 | 36% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 34% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 9.4 | 42% / 50% | 68 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 51% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 7.0 | 34% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 9.2 | 42% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 54% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 6.1 | 42% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 39% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | – | – / 13% | – | void |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | – | – / 11% | – | void |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | – | – / 13% | – | void |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 8.2 | 46% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 10 | 53% / 50% | 11 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 14 | 45% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 55% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 17 | 44% / 50% | 39 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 36% / 46% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 15 | 34% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 34% / 55% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 13 | 31% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 31% / 52% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 10 | 29% / 50% | 46 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 28% / 46% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 10 | 28% / 49% | 19 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 24% / 43% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 12 | 33% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 26% / 52% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 11 | 24% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 25% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 10 | 28% / 51% | 13 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 22% / 42% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 0 | 19% / 49% | 75 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 0 | 17% / 51% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 0 | 18% / 51% | 39 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 18% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 44.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Under 41.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 35.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 15.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 15.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 15.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 20.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 25.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 23.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 23.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 23.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 9.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 43.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 43.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 14.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Under 13.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Under 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Over 13.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Under 13.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology