QB · SEA · 203 lines since 2023
Sam Darnold Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Sam Darnold, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 11% — we make it 12%
- Line 30.5 pass attempts — we project 31 (P(over) 52%)
- Line 20.5 completions — we project 20 (P(over) 47%)
- Line 1.5 pass TDs — we project 2 (P(over) 50%)
- Line 231.5 pass yds — we project 227 (P(over) 48%)
- Line 4.5 rush yds — we project 8.3 (P(over) 64%)
Over/under record by market
- Passing yards over 19, under 18 (37 graded)
- Passing TDs over 22, under 15 (37 graded)
- Rushing yards over 15, under 22 (37 graded)
- Anytime TD over 2, under 36 (38 graded)
- Pass attempts over 7, under 10 (17 graded)
- Completions over 7, under 10 (17 graded)
- Rush attempts over 7, under 7 (14 graded)
Our calls on him: model 24–31 · Starters out on defense 5–1 · Low total (40.5 or less) 0–5 · Pressure 0–4 · Big favourite (6.5+) 5–2 · Short week 1–2 · Wind 15+ mph 0–2 · Man coverage 1–1 · High total (48.5+) 3–2 · Dome team outdoors 3–3 · Play action 0–2
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 11% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass att | 30.5 | 31 | 52% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Cmp | 20.5 | 20 | 47% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass yds | 231.5 | 227 | 48% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 4.5 | 8.3 | 64% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 53% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Pass yds | 233.5 | 225 | 46% / 50% | 168 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 4.5 | 8.7 | 65% / 50% | 6 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | – | – / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | – | – / 47% | 4 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Pass yds | 219.5 | – | – / 50% | 379 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 6.5 | – | – / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Pass yds | 228.5 | 218 | 45% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 5.5 | 7.8 | 60% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Pass att | 30.5 | 31 | 55% / 47% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Cmp | 20.5 | 21 | 50% / 49% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 54% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Pass yds | 244.5 | 239 | 48% / 50% | 198 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rush att | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 43% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rush yds | 4.5 | 5.4 | 54% / 51% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Pass att | 28.5 | 29 | 54% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Cmp | 18.5 | 19 | 54% / 51% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Pass yds | 229.5 | 218 | 45% / 53% | 147 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush att | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 44% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 3.5 | 5.9 | 61% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Pass att | 30.5 | 31 | 51% / 49% | 34 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Cmp | 19.5 | 20 | 54% / 54% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 43% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Pass yds | 225.5 | 220 | 47% / 48% | 270 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush att | 1.5 | 2 | 63% / 61% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 4.5 | 5.1 | 52% / 50% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Pass att | 28.5 | 30 | 56% / 49% | 36 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Cmp | 18.5 | 19 | 57% / 52% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 55% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Pass yds | 229.5 | 234 | 51% / 51% | 271 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 2.5 | 2 | 36% / 43% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 3.5 | 5.6 | 59% / 49% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Pass att | 28.5 | 29 | 50% / 47% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Cmp | 18.5 | 19 | 52% / 52% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 50% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Pass yds | 233.5 | 224 | 46% / 49% | 249 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 60% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 4.7 | 64% / 52% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Pass att | 28.5 | 28 | 46% / 47% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Cmp | 19.5 | 18 | 42% / 47% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 55% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Pass yds | 227.5 | 225 | 49% / 50% | 128 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 2.5 | 2 | 39% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 2.5 | 6.2 | 64% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Pass att | 27.5 | 29 | 57% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Cmp | 18.5 | 19 | 55% / 53% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 52% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Pass yds | 240.5 | 230 | 46% / 49% | 244 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rush att | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 5.9 | 70% / 52% | -1 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Pass att | 30.5 | 30 | 47% / 50% | 44 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Cmp | 20.5 | 20 | 46% / 52% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Pass yds | 251.5 | 221 | 37% / 51% | 279 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rush yds | 3.5 | 3.9 | 52% / 51% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Pass att | 29.5 | 31 | 56% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Cmp | 20.5 | 20 | 50% / 52% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 58% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Pass yds | 255.5 | 245 | 46% / 50% | 178 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rush att | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 42% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rush yds | 5.5 | 5.4 | 49% / 49% | -2 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Pass att | 29.5 | 30 | 54% / 48% | 24 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Cmp | 19.5 | 20 | 54% / 51% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 56% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Pass yds | 240.5 | 232 | 46% / 50% | 330 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 5.5 | 6.3 | 53% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Pass att | 29.5 | 29 | 49% / 49% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Cmp | 19.5 | 20 | 53% / 47% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Pass yds | 225.5 | 210 | 43% / 50% | 213 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rush yds | 5.5 | 5.2 | 49% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Pass att | 31.5 | 32 | 53% / 52% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Cmp | 21.5 | 21 | 50% / 51% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 46% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Pass yds | 242.5 | 243 | 51% / 50% | 295 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rush att | 2.5 | 2 | 26% / 43% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 6.5 | 4.6 | 43% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Pass att | 30.5 | 30 | 47% / 46% | 34 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Cmp | 20.5 | 20 | 45% / 48% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 44% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Pass yds | 226.5 | 225 | 49% / 50% | 341 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rush att | 2.5 | 2 | 33% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rush yds | 6.5 | 5.4 | 46% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Pass att | 30.5 | 32 | 57% / 49% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Cmp | 20.5 | 21 | 53% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Pass yds | 226.5 | 229 | 51% / 50% | 242 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 4.5 | 35% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Pass att | 30.5 | 31 | 52% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Cmp | 19.5 | 20 | 54% / 53% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 45% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Pass yds | 216.5 | 229 | 56% / 50% | 218 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rush att | 3.5 | 3 | 34% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 8.2 | 46% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Pass att | 28.5 | 31 | 63% / 51% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Cmp | 18.5 | 20 | 62% / 52% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 28% / 34% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Pass yds | 197.5 | 191 | 47% / 51% | 295 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rush att | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 9.3 | 49% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Pass att | 29.5 | 32 | 65% / 51% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Cmp | 19.5 | 21 | 58% / 53% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Pass yds | 206.5 | 214 | 53% / 50% | 150 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush att | 3.5 | 3 | 50% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 9.7 | 54% / 51% | 14 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Pass TDs | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Pass yds | 295.5 | 293 | 49% / 53% | 166 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 9.4 | 38% / 49% | 10 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 55% / 55% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Pass yds | 267.5 | 254 | 45% / 50% | 377 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 10 | 47% / 50% | -3 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 50% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Pass yds | 247.5 | 243 | 48% / 50% | 246 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rush yds | 12.5 | 10 | 43% / 49% | 11 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 60% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Pass yds | 254.5 | 245 | 46% / 51% | 231 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 14 | 52% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 59% / 56% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Pass yds | 254.5 | 263 | 54% / 50% | 347 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 14 | 52% / 49% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 51% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Pass yds | 254.5 | 254 | 50% / 50% | 235 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 13 | 55% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 45% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Pass yds | 228.5 | 204 | 39% / 49% | 330 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rush yds | 12.5 | 13 | 53% / 50% | -1 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 15% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 46% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Pass yds | 237.5 | 213 | 39% / 50% | 246 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 14 | 58% / 51% | 18 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Pass yds | 242.5 | 248 | 52% / 49% | 241 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 12.5 | 14 | 55% / 49% | 28 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 55% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Pass yds | 252.5 | 247 | 48% / 50% | 290 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 16 | 51% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 54% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Pass yds | 247.5 | 239 | 46% / 51% | 240 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 14.5 | 15 | 50% / 49% | 6 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Pass yds | 263.5 | 271 | 53% / 50% | 259 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 10 | 42% / 49% | 39 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Pass yds | 218.5 | 215 | 48% / 50% | 179 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 11 | 50% / 50% | 11 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 45% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Pass yds | 227.5 | 212 | 43% / 50% | 275 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 8.0 | 45% / 50% | 15 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 40% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Pass yds | 236.5 | 217 | 41% / 51% | 181 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 12.5 | 12 | 48% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 39% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Pass yds | 234.5 | 211 | 39% / 50% | 268 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 2.9 | 21% / 49% | 32 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | – | – / 39% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Pass yds | 227.5 | – | – / 49% | 208 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rush yds | 12.5 | – | – / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | – | – / 15% | 1 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 4.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 219.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 219.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 5.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 30.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 20.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 244.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 28.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 18.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 229.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 229.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 3.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 225.5 pass yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 225.5 pass yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 28.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 28.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 18.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 3.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 28.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 1.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 28.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 227.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 2.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 27.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 27.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 1.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 30.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 20.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 251.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 251.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 29.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 29.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 255.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 29.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 19.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 225.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 6.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 226.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 226.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 6.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 30.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 226.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 226.5 pass yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 8.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 30.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 216.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 28.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Over 28.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 18.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology