TE · DET · 150 lines since 2023
Sam LaPorta Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Sam LaPorta, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 37% — we make it 37%
- Line 19.5 yds longest rec — we project 23 (P(over) 61%)
- Line 51.5 rec yds — we project 52 (P(over) 51%)
- Line 4.5 receptions — we project 4 (P(over) 48%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 27, under 18 (45 graded)
- Receptions over 23, under 22 (45 graded)
- Anytime TD over 18, under 28 (46 graded)
- Longest reception over 5, under 4 (9 graded)
Our calls on him: Dome team outdoors 5–10 · model 30–30 · Middle of the field 2–3 · Short week 1–3 · Missed tackles 4–5 · Pre-snap motion 2–3 · Play action 1–2 · Freezing 1–0 · Starters out on defense 7–4 · Wind 15+ mph 1–1 · Explosive plays 0–2
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 37% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 19.5 | 23 | 61% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 52 | 51% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 48% / 56% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 43 | 45% / 50% | 84 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 40% / 45% | 8 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 43 | 45% / 50% | 44 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 40 | 42% / 50% | 52 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 40% / 47% | 6 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 47 | 53% / 50% | 48 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 44% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | – | – / 56% | – | void |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 18.5 | 22 | 60% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 46 | 50% / 50% | 53 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 39% / 43% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 17.5 | 20 | 58% / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 40 | 48% / 50% | 97 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 36% / 45% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 18.5 | 23 | 63% / 51% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 49 | 50% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 42% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 17.5 | 20 | 59% / 51% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 42 | 48% / 50% | 55 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 41% / 45% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 17.5 | 22 | 62% / 49% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 46 | 55% / 51% | 92 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 57% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 16.5 | 19 | 58% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 38 | 50% / 50% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 50% / 56% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 17.5 | 20 | 58% / 51% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 43 | 46% / 51% | 33 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 17.5 | 21 | 62% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 45 | 50% / 52% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 40% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 17.5 | 21 | 63% / 48% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 51 | 61% / 50% | 79 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 69% / 57% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 49 | 49% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 41% / 53% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 39 | 45% / 50% | 64 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 33% / 43% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 40 | 45% / 50% | 43 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 34% / 43% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 37 | 48% / 50% | 111 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 57% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 37 | 44% / 49% | 54 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 51% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 35 | 46% / 54% | 6 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 36 | 49% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 40% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 36 | 54% / 49% | 66 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 29 | 37% / 50% | 28 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 29 | 43% / 51% | 48 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 32% / 42% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 35 | 41% / 50% | 25 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 30% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 32 | 40% / 50% | 52 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 26% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 30 | 36% / 49% | 53 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 60% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 34 | 38% / 50% | 36 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 28% / 46% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 45 | 46% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 40% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 51 | 47% / 50% | 45 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 35% / 42% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 39 | 37% / 50% | 84 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 40% / 56% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 48 | 49% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 50% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 50 | 51% / 49% | 56 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 48% / 56% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 45 | 48% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 50% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 40 | 50% / 51% | 140 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 40% / 42% | 9 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 38 | 42% / 50% | 47 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 37% / 48% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 42 | 47% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 41% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 43 | 41% / 52% | 40 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 57% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 43 | 42% / 53% | 57 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 50% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 39 | 46% / 51% | 52 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 45% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 40 | 45% / 50% | 36 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 48% / 46% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 62 | 56% / 50% | 47 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 58% / 43% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 45 | 51% / 50% | 56 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 59% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 37 | 49% / 50% | 84 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 61% / 52% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 27 | 40% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 45% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 30.5 | – | – / 49% | 39 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 59% | 5 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 47.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 47.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 48.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 46.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Over 46.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 46.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 46.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 45.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 45.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 45.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 42.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 44.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 40.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 47.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Under 40.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 50.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 50.5 rec yds (Play action, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 43.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 45.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 45.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 45.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Under 38.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Over 41.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Under 41.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Over 38.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 38.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Over 32.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Over 39.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 39.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Over 39.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 39.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 34.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology