WR · CIN · 150 lines since 2023
Tee Higgins Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Tee Higgins, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 43% — we make it 39%
- Line 21.5 yds longest rec — we project 30 (P(over) 73%)
- Line 50.5 rec yds — we project 78 (P(over) 71%)
- Line 3.5 receptions — we project 6 (P(over) 78%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 23, under 20 (43 graded)
- Receptions over 19, under 24 (43 graded)
- Anytime TD over 20, under 23 (43 graded)
- Longest reception over 9, under 6 (15 graded)
Our calls on him: model 27–19 · Explosive plays 2–0 · Pre-snap motion 4–3 · Freezing 2–1 · Starters out on defense 1–3 · Middle of the field 6–5 · Wind 15+ mph 1–1 · Short week 0–1 · Missed tackles 2–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 43% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 21.5 | 30 | 73% / 48% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 78 | 71% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 6 | 78% / 56% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 71 | 57% / 50% | 157 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 54% / 49% | 11 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 62 | 57% / 50% | 90 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 50% / 42% | 6 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 50 | 47% / 50% | 95 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 57% / 57% | 5 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 44% TD chance | 44% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 70 | 55% / 50% | 59 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 58% / 54% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 21.5 | 26 | 62% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 55 | 52% / 50% | 67 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 38% / 42% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 22.5 | 28 | 64% / 50% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 59 | 51% / 50% | 59 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 41% / 45% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 46% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 22.5 | 25 | 55% / 51% | 35 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 49 | 42% / 50% | 53 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 35% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 21.5 | 23 | 55% / 51% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 47 | 42% / 49% | 92 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 35% / 44% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 23.5 | 24 | 53% / 51% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 70.5 | 52 | 36% / 50% | 31 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 31% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 21.5 | 26 | 60% / 50% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 57 | 51% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 50% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 47% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 20.5 | 25 | 61% / 50% | 44 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 50 | 48% / 50% | 121 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 37% / 45% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 44% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 19.5 | 24 | 64% / 52% | 44 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 51 | 47% / 50% | 44 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 44% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 19.5 | 22 | 58% / 50% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 50 | 53% / 50% | 96 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 48% / 43% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 16.5 | 19 | 59% / 51% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 43 | 52% / 50% | 62 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 4.5 | 64% / 57% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 19.5 | 21 | 55% / 51% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 45 | 47% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 57% / 57% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 20.5 | 21 | 51% / 49% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 45 | 48% / 50% | 32 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 60% / 57% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 20.5 | 21 | 52% / 52% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 46 | 42% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 21.5 | 25 | 59% / 50% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 56 | 40% / 50% | 56 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 33% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 22.5 | 28 | 65% / 49% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 70 | 54% / 50% | 33 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 47% / 46% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 72.5 | 75 | 52% / 50% | 53 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 53% / 57% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 44% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 69.5 | 70 | 50% / 51% | 131 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 45% / 50% | 11 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 45% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 70.5 | 68 | 48% / 50% | 58 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 38% / 46% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 66 | 49% / 51% | 88 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 39% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 76.5 | 77 | 50% / 52% | 23 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 33% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 70.5 | 71 | 50% / 50% | 69 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 47% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 58 | 52% / 50% | 148 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 54% / 56% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 51 | 41% / 50% | 82 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 33% / 43% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 62 | 55% / 51% | 77 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 54% / 53% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 54 | 51% / 52% | 83 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 41% / 45% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 45 | 42% / 51% | 60 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 28% / 41% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 47 | 47% / 49% | 39 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 54% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 32% | – | void |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 36% | – | void |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 56 | 61% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 63% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 59 | 49% / 50% | 140 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 49% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 41 | 51% / 50% | 61 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 47% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 44 | 58% / 52% | 72 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 34 | 43% / 50% | 36 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 45% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 45 | 42% / 51% | 110 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 31% / 48% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 37 | 40% / 51% | 69 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 25% / 43% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 36 | 32% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 2 | 18% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 52 | 46% / 51% | 19 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 38% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 73 | 57% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 44% / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 53 | 47% / 50% | 89 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 26% / 54% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 60.5 | – | – / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | – | – / 54% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 62.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 54.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Over 53.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 63.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 53.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 58.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 58.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 55.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 55.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 70.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 56.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 56.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 56.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 52.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 54.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 46.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 46.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 54.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 54.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 66.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 66.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 72.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Over 72.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 72.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 69.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 69.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Under 67.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 70.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Over 70.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 70.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Over 56.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 60.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Under 60.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Over 53.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Over 53.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Under 53.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W4 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W17 Under 44.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology