WR · NYJ · 76 lines since 2023
Tim Patrick Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Tim Patrick, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 10, under 9 (19 graded)
- Receptions over 11, under 8 (19 graded)
- Anytime TD over 5, under 27 (32 graded)
- Longest reception over 2, under 3 (5 graded)
Our calls on him: Pre-snap motion 0–1 · model 17–11 · Dome team outdoors 3–0 · Freezing 1–0 · Starters out on defense 1–1 · Short week 0–1 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | – | – / 6% | – | … |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 7.5 | 7.2 | 49% / 49% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 8.4 | 47% / 49% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 69% / 63% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 9.5 | 5.6 | 41% / 50% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 6.3 | 42% / 50% | 78 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 30% / 37% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 12.5 | 6.1 | 35% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 6.8 | 27% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 11% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 11% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 11.5 | 0 | 23% / 52% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 9.5 | 2.1 | 31% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 2.1 | 32% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 21% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 7% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 25 | 61% / 51% | 15 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 65% / 52% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 24 | 44% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 29 | 50% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 50% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 27 | 46% / 49% | 30 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 51% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 23 | 47% / 51% | 43 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 36% / 41% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 23 | 51% / 50% | 48 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 63% / 59% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 19 | 55% / 50% | 55 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 49% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 19 | 53% / 51% | 26 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 48% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 22 | 59% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 62% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 19 | 43% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 61% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 21 | 38% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 33% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 25 | 53% / 50% | 25 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 38% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 18 | 52% / 49% | 68 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 50% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 13 | 48% / 50% | 52 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 47% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 8.6 | 43% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 32% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | – | – / 14% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2025 W16 Under 9.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Over 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 28.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 28.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 29.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 29.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Over 29.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 22.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Over 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 23.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 23.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Over 29.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Under 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology