TE · KC · 175 lines since 2023
Travis Kelce Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Travis Kelce, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 4
- Anytime TD priced at 40% — we make it 26%
- Line 47.5 rec yds — we project 46 (P(over) 48%)
- Line 4.5 receptions — we project 4 (P(over) 40%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 0, under 2 (2 graded)
- Receiving yards over 25, under 27 (52 graded)
- Receptions over 19, under 33 (52 graded)
- Anytime TD over 15, under 37 (52 graded)
- Longest reception over 7, under 10 (17 graded)
Our calls on him: Middle of the field 6–7 · Pre-snap motion 10–12 · model 49–38 · Missed tackles 6–5 · Starters out on defense 3–2 · Short week 2–2 · Freezing 3–1 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0 · Explosive plays 1–2 · Red-zone defense 0–1 · Play action 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 46 | 48% / 51% | 15 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 40% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 46 | 45% / 50% | 59 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 38 | 47% / 50% | 101 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 56% | 9 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 55 | 64% / 50% | 71 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 6 | 75% / 58% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 15.5 | 19 | 62% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 44 | 52% / 49% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 54% / 52% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 16.5 | 13 | 35% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 30 | 36% / 50% | 36 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 40% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 19.5 | 20 | 51% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 48 | 48% / 49% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 56% / 55% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 18.5 | 19 | 52% / 49% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 40 | 49% / 51% | 70 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 39% / 47% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 18.5 | 18 | 50% / 51% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 41 | 42% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 44% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 19.5 | 24 | 61% / 51% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 57 | 49% / 50% | 45 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 42% / 45% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 20.5 | 23 | 57% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 54 | 46% / 50% | 43 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 52% / 56% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 18.5 | 19 | 52% / 50% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 39 | 44% / 50% | 91 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 37% / 41% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 18.5 | 20 | 56% / 49% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 42 | 47% / 50% | 66 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 37% / 46% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 52% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 18.5 | 20 | 54% / 49% | 38 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 40 | 49% / 50% | 99 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 51% / 56% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 16.5 | 21 | 65% / 51% | 44 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 46 | 57% / 50% | 54 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 59% / 56% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 17.5 | 19 | 57% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 42 | 48% / 49% | 78 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 48% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 16.5 | 18 | 57% / 52% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 37 | 43% / 49% | 61 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 36% / 43% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 16.5 | 19 | 60% / 49% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 42 | 52% / 50% | 48 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 44% / 46% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 18.5 | 20 | 54% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 43 | 43% / 49% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 31% / 45% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 17.5 | 18 | 51% / 51% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 39 | 41% / 50% | 61 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 29% / 43% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 47% TD chance | 47% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 18.5 | 23 | 66% / 49% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 66 | 65% / 50% | 47 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 5.5 | 7 | 61% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 42 | 44% / 50% | 84 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 61% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 47 | 45% / 49% | 30 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 46% / 46% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 45 | 41% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 42% / 52% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 49 | 41% / 51% | 45 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 46% / 55% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 53 | 46% / 51% | 68 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 34% / 43% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 49 | 41% / 50% | 62 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 34% / 44% | 6 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 48 | 35% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 39% / 54% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 48 | 38% / 50% | 64 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 44% / 56% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 49 | 39% / 52% | 100 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 41% / 56% | 14 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 48% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 36 | 28% / 50% | 90 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 27% / 48% | 10 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 43 | 31% / 51% | 17 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 26% / 43% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 6% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 39 | 29% / 52% | 70 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 27% / 54% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 8% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 32 | 33% / 52% | 89 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 30% / 58% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 31 | 28% / 49% | 30 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 28% / 55% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 36 | 32% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 32% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 47 | 38% / 52% | 34 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 5.5 | 4.5 | 36% / 57% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 63 | 45% / 51% | 16 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 51% / 58% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 67 | 50% / 50% | 44 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 56% / 55% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 63 | 47% / 50% | 28 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 43% / 47% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 63 | 46% / 50% | 83 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 42% / 48% | 6 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 69.5 | 59 | 41% / 49% | 81 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 42% / 48% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 58% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 70.5 | 62 | 43% / 51% | 91 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 49% / 52% | 6 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 56% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 75.5 | 66 | 41% / 51% | 44 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 7.5 | 6 | 39% / 44% | 7 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 58% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 79.5 | 68 | 41% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 7.5 | 6 | 38% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 76.5 | 68 | 44% / 50% | 58 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 6.5 | 7 | 50% / 56% | 6 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 57% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 75.5 | 55 | 31% / 51% | 179 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 39% / 52% | 12 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 58% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 44 | 31% / 49% | 124 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 6.5 | 4 | 25% / 45% | 9 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 58% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 77.5 | 47 | 24% / 50% | 67 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 7.5 | 5 | 17% / 44% | 10 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 59% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 71.5 | 37 | 18% / 50% | 60 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 6.5 | 4 | 18% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 59% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 70.5 | 33 | 17% / 50% | 69 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 6.5 | 3 | 9% / 45% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | – | – / 58% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 76.5 | – | – / 49% | 26 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 6.5 | – | – / 53% | 4 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 47.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 47.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 51.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 51.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 51.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 42.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 42.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 38.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 38.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 38.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 38.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 50.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 50.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 40.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 47.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 47.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 47.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 57.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 57.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 43.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 43.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 43.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 44.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 42.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 42.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 40.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 49.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 49.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 45.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 50.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Over 47.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 47.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 47.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 47.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology