Edgehalla

RB · BUF · 121 lines since 2023

Ty Johnson Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Ty Johnson, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

  • Anytime TD priced at 14% — we make it 27%
  • Line 8.5 yds longest rec — we project 7.5 (P(over) 47%)
  • Line 11.5 rec yds — we project 10 (P(over) 47%)
  • Line 1.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 51%)

Over/under record by market

  • Rushing yards over 9, under 9 (18 graded)
  • Receiving yards over 8, under 5 (13 graded)
  • Receptions over 7, under 4 (11 graded)
  • Anytime TD over 11, under 43 (54 graded)
  • Rush attempts over 4, under 2 (6 graded)
  • Longest reception over 5, under 4 (9 graded)

Our calls on him: model 17–46 · Missed tackles 3–4 · Starters out on defense 1–2 · Big favourite (6.5+) 1–1 · Pre-snap motion 0–2 · Short week 1–2 · Explosive plays 0–0

Line vs actual vs our projection

Ty Johnson prop line history
WeekMarketLineWe projectedP(over) us / marketActualResult
2026 W5Any TD–27% TD chance27% / 14%–…
2026 W5Long rec8.57.547% / 49%–…
2026 W5Rec yds11.51047% / 51%–…
2026 W5Rec1.5251% / 60%–…
2026 W4Any TD–27% TD chance27% / 17%0under
2026 W4Rec yds11.51148% / 50%9under
2026 W4Rec1.5148% / 53%2over
2026 W4Rush yds4.51272% / 51%3under
2026 W3Any TD–28% TD chance28% / 18%0under
2026 W2Any TD–26% TD chance26% / 20%–void
2025 W18Any TD–22% TD chance22% / 9%1over
2025 W18Any TD–22% TD chance22% / 22%1over
2025 W17Any TD–23% TD chance23% / 17%0under
2025 W17Long rec9.55.637% / 48%10over
2025 W17Rec yds12.56.735% / 51%33over
2025 W17Rec1.5137% / 53%3over
2025 W17Rush att2.5248% / 45%5over
2025 W17Rush yds8.59.152% / 49%15over
2025 W16Any TD–21% TD chance21% / 17%1over
2025 W16Long rec8.55.538% / 52%0under
2025 W16Rec yds11.56.337% / 50%0under
2025 W16Rec1.5135% / 54%0under
2025 W16Rush att2.5352% / 52%3over
2025 W16Rush yds9.51053% / 49%16over
2025 W15Any TD–21% TD chance21% / 14%0under
2025 W15Long rec9.55.939% / 48%12over
2025 W15Rec yds12.56.737% / 49%15over
2025 W15Rec1.5134% / 49%3over
2025 W15Rush att1.5263% / 58%4over
2025 W15Rush yds6.57.352% / 49%13over
2025 W14Any TD–23% TD chance23% / 15%0under
2025 W14Long rec9.56.240% / 48%7under
2025 W14Rec yds12.57.039% / 49%14over
2025 W14Rec1.5135% / 59%2over
2025 W14Rush att2.5245% / 43%2under
2025 W14Rush yds8.58.951% / 51%25over
2025 W13Any TD–19% TD chance19% / 14%0under
2025 W13Long rec8.54.938% / 51%9over
2025 W13Rec yds10.55.537% / 51%20over
2025 W13Rec1.5133% / 49%3over
2025 W13Rush att1.5268% / 58%2over
2025 W13Rush yds5.57.256% / 50%5under
2025 W12Any TD–21% TD chance21% / 13%0under
2025 W12Long rec6.52.938% / 49%23over
2025 W12Rec yds8.53.035% / 51%45over
2025 W12Rec1.5125% / 39%3over
2025 W12Rush yds6.57.754% / 50%7over
2025 W11Any TD–22% TD chance22% / 11%1over
2025 W10Any TD–25% TD chance25% / 17%0under
2025 W9Any TD–22% TD chance22% / 10%1over
2025 W8Any TD–23% TD chance23% / 13%0under
2025 W6Any TD–23% TD chance23% / 13%0under
2025 W6Long rec3.5040% / 52%0under
2025 W6Rec yds3.5040% / 51%11over
2025 W6Rush yds5.59.662% / 56%5under
2025 W5Any TD–25% TD chance25% / 12%0under
2025 W5Rush yds10.51253% / 52%10under
2025 W4Any TD–27% TD chance27% / 17%0under
2025 W4Long rec2.53.252% / 50%0under
2025 W4Rec yds2.53.553% / 49%0under
2025 W4Rec0.5158% / 58%0under
2025 W4Rush att3.5345% / 58%1under
2025 W4Rush yds14.51654% / 53%0under
2025 W3Any TD–32% TD chance32% / 15%0under
2025 W3Long rec5.52.942% / 50%8over
2025 W3Rec yds5.52.943% / 51%8over
2025 W3Rec1.5121% / 37%1under
2025 W3Rush yds10.51663% / 50%13over
2025 W2Any TD–26% TD chance26% / 12%0under
2025 W2Rush yds12.51657% / 50%6under
2025 W1Any TD–39% TD chance39% / 13%0under
2024 W18Any TD–17% TD chance17% / 33%0under
2024 W17Any TD–22% TD chance22% / 19%0under
2024 W17Rush yds11.51353% / 51%16over
2024 W16Any TD–27% TD chance27% / 25%0under
2024 W15Any TD–23% TD chance23% / 15%0under
2024 W14Any TD–20% TD chance20% / 12%1over
2024 W13Any TD–19% TD chance19% / 13%0under
2024 W11Any TD–20% TD chance20% / 9%0under
2024 W11Rec yds4.53.346% / 51%0under
2024 W10Any TD–21% TD chance21% / 8%0under
2024 W9Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 8%0under
2024 W8Any TD–17% TD chance17% / 8%0under
2024 W7Any TD–28% TD chance28% / 13%1over
2024 W6Any TD–24% TD chance24% / 31%0under
2024 W6Rec yds14.53.420% / 51%0under
2024 W6Rec2.519% / 39%0under
2024 W6Rush yds23.59.520% / 51%34over
2024 W5Any TD–22% TD chance22% / 13%0under
2024 W4Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 9%1over
2024 W3Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 11%1over
2024 W2Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 9%0under
2024 W2Rush yds8.56.143% / 49%-1under
2024 W1Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 12%0under
2024 W1Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 3%0under
2024 W1Rush yds10.59.046% / 51%7under
2023 W18Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 14%0under
2023 W18Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 3%0under
2023 W18Rec yds1.5041% / 49%9over
2023 W18Rec0.5045% / 56%1over
2023 W18Rush yds10.51151% / 49%5under
2023 W17Any TD–15% TD chance15% / 4%0under
2023 W17Any TD–15% TD chance15% / 17%0under
2023 W16Any TD–16% TD chance16% / 19%–void
2023 W16Rush yds20.51435% / 48%–void
2023 W15Any TD–15% TD chance15% / 3%0under
2023 W15Any TD–15% TD chance15% / 13%0under
2023 W15Rush yds11.57.236% / 49%54over
2023 W14Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 2%0under
2023 W14Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 8%0under
2023 W12Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 3%0under
2023 W12Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 11%0under
2023 W11Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 6%1over
2023 W11Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 4%1over
2023 W10Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 5%0under
2023 W10Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 3%0under
2023 W9Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 6%–void
2023 W9Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 3%–void
2023 W8Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 9%–void
2023 W7Any TD––– / 9%0under
2023 W7Any TD––– / 4%0under

Our calls

  • 2026 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W4 Under 4.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2026 W4 Over 4.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) void
  • 2025 W17 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W17 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W17 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W17 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W17 Over 8.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W16 Under 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W16 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W16 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W16 Over 2.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W16 Under 9.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W15 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W15 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W15 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W15 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W15 Under 6.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W14 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W14 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W14 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W14 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W14 Over 8.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W13 Under 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W13 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W13 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W13 Over 1.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W13 Over 5.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W12 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W12 Under 6.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W12 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W12 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W12 Under 6.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W12 Under 6.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W11 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W10 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W9 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W8 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W6 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W6 Under 3.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W6 Under 3.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W6 Over 5.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W5 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W5 Over 10.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W4 Over 3.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W4 Under 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W3 Under 5.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W3 Under 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W3 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W3 Over 10.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W3 Under 10.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W2 Over 12.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W2 Over 12.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W17 Over 11.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology