RB · PHI · 47 lines since 2023
Will Shipley Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Will Shipley, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 26% — we make it 41%
- Line 9.5 yds longest rec — we project 7.0 (P(over) 37%)
- Line 15.5 rec yds — we project 10 (P(over) 36%)
- Line 2.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 36%)
- Line 10.5 rush attempts — we project 15 (P(over) 78%)
- Line 50.5 rush + rec yds — we project 59 (P(over) 61%)
- Line 33.5 rush yds — we project 47 (P(over) 69%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 1, under 1 (2 graded)
- Receiving yards over 1, under 0 (1 graded)
- Anytime TD over 0, under 27 (27 graded)
- Rush attempts over 1, under 0 (1 graded)
Our calls on him: model 3–4 · Big favourite (6.5+) 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 26% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 9.5 | 7.0 | 37% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 10 | 36% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 36% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush att | 10.5 | 15 | 78% / 47% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush+rec yds | 50.5 | 59 | 61% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 33.5 | 47 | 69% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 2.5 | 2.5 | 50% / 48% | 11 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rush yds | 6.5 | 3.3 | 39% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush att | 2.5 | 5 | 86% / 58% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 21 | 72% / 53% | 26 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | – | – / 7% | – | void |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 4% | – | void |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 6% | – | void |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 10% | – | void |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 7% | – | void |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 5% | – | void |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 5% | – | void |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 5% | – | void |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 5% | – | void |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 7% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 6.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 2.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 11.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology