Shot Prop Lab
Shots on Goal Projections for Wednesday, October 21, 2026
Expected shots on goal for every skater on tonight's slate, and the chance he clears 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5. Each number starts from the shooter's own attempt rate and accuracy, times the ice time we expect him to get at 5-on-5 and on the power play, then adjusts for the defenders he is likely to face and how well the opponent kills penalties.
2 games, 70 skaters · updated Oct 21, 12:20 PM ET · model shotprops-1.1.0. Projections, not picks. Book lines from 5 US sportsbooks (via The Odds API) are in the table as context, not as picks. Live since Oct 12 (1,094 graded lines): about even on shots on goal. Even with the books is not an edge once the margin is paid.
Tonight's shots on goal chances beside every book's price and the no-vig line →
Most likely to get 3+ shots
- Tage ThompsonBUF vs PHI65% · 3.48
- Jack QuinnBUF vs PHI53% · 2.87
- Brady TkachukFLA @ OTT50% · 2.73
- Zach BensonBUF vs PHI43% · 2.42
- Sam ReinhartFLA @ OTT42% · 2.38
- Tim StützleOTT vs FLA40% · 2.29
- Matthew TkachukFLA @ OTT39% · 2.27
- Carter VerhaegheFLA @ OTT38% · 2.23
- Drake BathersonOTT vs FLA38% · 2.22
- Dylan CozensOTT vs FLA37% · 2.19
- Josh DoanBUF vs PHI34% · 2.07
- Olen ZellwegerBUF vs PHI33% · 2.03
- Sam BennettFLA @ OTT33% · 2.02
- Shane PintoOTT vs FLA32% · 1.99
Toughest 5v5 matchups
- Sam BennettFLA @ OTT−7% (−0.11) · 2.02
- Carter VerhaegheFLA @ OTT−7% (−0.11) · 2.23
- Drake BathersonOTT vs FLA−5% (−0.08) · 2.22
- Dylan CozensOTT vs FLA−5% (−0.08) · 2.19
- Christian DvorakPHI @ BUF−2% (−0.03) · 1.68
- Trevor ZegrasPHI @ BUF−2% (−0.03) · 1.90
Every skater, with filters and book lines: full slate below.
Every skater, Oct 21
Games: PHI @ BUF 7:30 PM ET · FLA @ OTT 7:30 PM ET. Matchup is the 5-on-5 adjustment for the defenders he is expected to face and home ice (+5% = 5% more shots than his usual rate).
70 skaters
- Tage ThompsonF · BUF vs PHI3.48Exp SOG
- Over 3.5
- 45%
- Best over
- +120
- Books
- 43%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 20:46
- PP TOI
- 4:10
- SOG/60 5v5
- 9.3
- Matchup
- +1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 84% / 65% / 45%
- Book line
- 3.5 · o +120 / u −145
- Jack QuinnF · BUF vs PHI2.87Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 53%
- Best over
- −112
- Books
- 51%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 20:05
- PP TOI
- 4:14
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.9
- Matchup
- +1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 76% / 53% / 33%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o −112 / u +100
- Brady TkachukF · FLA @ OTT2.73Exp SOG
- Over 3.5
- 30%
- Best over
- +124
- Books
- 46%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 16:05
- PP TOI
- 3:45
- SOG/60 5v5
- 9.7
- Matchup
- −5%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 74% / 50% / 30%
- Book line
- 3.5 · o +124 / u −130
- Zach BensonF · BUF vs PHI2.42Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 68%
- Best over
- −190
- Books
- 62%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 21:18
- PP TOI
- 4:14
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.3
- Matchup
- +1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 68% / 43% / 23%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −190 / u +146
- Sam ReinhartF · FLA @ OTT2.38Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 42%
- Best over
- +115
- Books
- 45%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 19:22
- PP TOI
- 4:12
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.6
- Matchup
- −6%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 67% / 42% / 23%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +115 / u −130
- Tim StützleF · OTT vs FLA2.29Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 40%
- Best over
- +128
- Books
- 44%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 22:21
- PP TOI
- 4:07
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.6
- Matchup
- −5%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 65% / 40% / 21%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +128 / u −150
- Matthew TkachukF · FLA @ OTT2.27Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 39%
- Best over
- −120
- Books
- 51%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 17:32
- PP TOI
- 4:03
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.9
- Matchup
- −6%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 65% / 39% / 20%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o −120 / u +102
- Carter VerhaegheF · FLA @ OTT2.23Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 38%
- Best over
- +125
- Books
- 46%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 17:59
- PP TOI
- 3:35
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.9
- Matchup
- −7%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 64% / 38% / 20%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +125 / u −135
- Drake BathersonF · OTT vs FLA2.22Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 38%
- Best over
- +134
- Books
- 41%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 18:21
- PP TOI
- 3:49
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.8
- Matchup
- −5%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 64% / 38% / 19%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +134 / u −165
- Dylan CozensF · OTT vs FLA2.19Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 37%
- Best over
- +128
- Books
- 43%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 17:08
- PP TOI
- 3:13
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.3
- Matchup
- −5%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 63% / 37% / 19%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +128 / u −145
| Book line | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage ThompsonF · BUF vs PHI | 3.48 | 84% | 65% | 45% | 20:46PP 4:10 | 9.3 | +1% | 3.5 · o +120 / u −145 |
| Jack QuinnF · BUF vs PHI | 2.87 | 76% | 53% | 33% | 20:05PP 4:14 | 7.9 | +1% | 2.5 · o −112 / u +100 |
| Brady TkachukF · FLA @ OTT | 2.73 | 74% | 50% | 30% | 16:05PP 3:45 | 9.7 | −5% | 3.5 · o +124 / u −130 |
| Zach BensonF · BUF vs PHI | 2.42 | 68% | 43% | 23% | 21:18PP 4:14 | 6.3 | +1% | 1.5 · o −190 / u +146 |
| Sam ReinhartF · FLA @ OTT | 2.38 | 67% | 42% | 23% | 19:22PP 4:12 | 5.6 | −6% | 2.5 · o +115 / u −130 |
| Tim StützleF · OTT vs FLA | 2.29 | 65% | 40% | 21% | 22:21PP 4:07 | 5.6 | −5% | 2.5 · o +128 / u −150 |
| Matthew TkachukF · FLA @ OTT | 2.27 | 65% | 39% | 20% | 17:32PP 4:03 | 6.9 | −6% | 2.5 · o −120 / u +102 |
| Carter VerhaegheF · FLA @ OTT | 2.23 | 64% | 38% | 20% | 17:59PP 3:35 | 6.9 | −7% | 2.5 · o +125 / u −135 |
| Drake BathersonF · OTT vs FLA | 2.22 | 64% | 38% | 19% | 18:21PP 3:49 | 6.8 | −5% | 2.5 · o +134 / u −165 |
| Dylan CozensF · OTT vs FLA | 2.19 | 63% | 37% | 19% | 17:08PP 3:13 | 7.3 | −5% | 2.5 · o +128 / u −145 |
| Josh DoanF · BUF vs PHI | 2.07 | 60% | 34% | 16% | 16:49PP 1:57 | 7.1 | +1% | 1.5 · o −154 / u +125 |
| Olen ZellwegerD · BUF vs PHI | 2.03 | 59% | 33% | 16% | 21:26 | 5.8 | +1% | 1.5 · o −145 / u +100 |
| Sam BennettF · FLA @ OTT | 2.02 | 59% | 33% | 15% | 16:04PP 1:40 | 7.6 | −7% | 2.5 · o +126 / u −140 |
| Shane PintoF · OTT vs FLA | 1.99 | 58% | 32% | 15% | 18:54PP 2:06 | 6.4 | −5% | 1.5 · o −148 / u +130 |
| Noah OstlundF · BUF vs PHI | 1.94 | 57% | 31% | 14% | 19:40PP 4:07 | 5.1 | +1% | 1.5 · o +100 / u −145 |
| Trevor ZegrasF · PHI @ BUF | 1.90 | 55% | 30% | 13% | 18:44PP 3:04 | 5.1 | −2% | 2.5 · o +132 / u −165 |
| Matvei MichkovF · PHI @ BUF | 1.84 | 54% | 28% | 12% | 14:51PP 3:01 | 6.8 | −1% | 2.5 · o +139 / u −155 |
| Claude GirouxF · OTT vs FLA | 1.84 | 54% | 28% | 12% | 17:51PP 3:08 | 5.9 | −6% | 1.5 · o +105 / u −110 |
| Seth JonesD · FLA @ OTT | 1.77 | 52% | 26% | 11% | 23:57PP 3:50 | 4.1 | −6% | 1.5 · o −110 / u −111 |
| Anton LundellF · FLA @ OTT | 1.77 | 52% | 26% | 11% | 16:23PP 1:33 | 6.9 | −5% | 1.5 · o −114 / u +105 |
| Owen PowerD · BUF vs PHI | 1.77 | 52% | 26% | 11% | 27:57PP 3:46 | 3.6 | +1% | 1.5 · o −105 / u −140 |
| Konsta HeleniusF · BUF vs PHI | 1.71 | 50% | 25% | 10% | 13:42PP 1:35 | 7.1 | +1% | 1.5 · o +130 / u −200 |
| Christian DvorakF · PHI @ BUF | 1.68 | 49% | 24% | 10% | 18:38PP 1:29 | 5.3 | −2% | 1.5 · o −120 / u +110 |
| Ridly GreigF · OTT vs FLA | 1.60 | 47% | 22% | 9% | 16:43 | 6.3 | −5% | 1.5 · o −105 / u −140 |
| Porter MartoneF · PHI @ BUF | 1.59 | 47% | 22% | 9% | 13:45PP 2:36 | 5.4 | −2% | 2.5 · o +149 / u −190 |
| Mattias SamuelssonD · BUF vs PHI | 1.52 | 44% | 20% | 8% | 25:36 | 3.9 | +1% | – |
| Sean CouturierF · PHI @ BUF | 1.52 | 44% | 20% | 7% | 17:26 | 5.4 | −2% | 1.5 · o +110 / u −125 |
| Josh NorrisF · BUF vs PHI | 1.49 | 43% | 19% | 7% | 14:47PP 1:48 | 5.5 | +1% | 1.5 · o +115 / u −106 |
| Fabian ZetterlundF · OTT vs FLA | 1.48 | 43% | 19% | 7% | 12:36PP 1:37 | 7.1 | −6% | 1.5 · o +120 / u −175 |
| Travis SanheimD · PHI @ BUF | 1.48 | 43% | 19% | 7% | 26:49 | 3.4 | −1% | – |
| Michael BuntingF · PHI @ BUF | 1.46 | 42% | 19% | 7% | 11:36PP 2:00 | 7.0 | −1% | 1.5 · o +115 / u −140 |
| Jamie DrysdaleD · PHI @ BUF | 1.41 | 41% | 17% | 6% | 23:07PP 2:42 | 3.2 | −2% | – |
| Carter YakemchukD · OTT vs FLA | 1.40 | 40% | 17% | 6% | 19:57PP 3:13 | 3.7 | −6% | 1.5 · o +105 / u −155 |
| Alex BumpF · PHI @ BUF | 1.40 | 40% | 17% | 6% | 12:24PP 1:01 | 6.5 | −1% | 1.5 · o −145 / u +100 |
| Jordan SpenceD · OTT vs FLA | 1.39 | 40% | 17% | 6% | 22:19 | 4.2 | −5% | – |
| Jiri KulichF · BUF vs PHI | 1.38 | 40% | 17% | 6% | 13:33 | 5.6 | +1% | 2.5 · o +139 / u −182 |
| Stephen HallidayF · OTT vs FLA | 1.38 | 40% | 17% | 6% | 12:36PP 2:41 | 6.1 | −6% | – |
| Denver BarkeyF · PHI @ BUF | 1.32 | 38% | 15% | 5% | 15:33PP 2:34 | 4.0 | −1% | – |
| Cole KnubleF · PHI @ BUFthin | 1.29 | 37% | 14% | 5% | 12:32 | 6.1 | −1% | 1.5 · o +120 / u −175 |
| Noel AcciariF · PHI @ BUF | 1.26 | 36% | 14% | 5% | 14:19 | 6.3 | −1% | 1.5 · o +125 / u −190 |
| Eetu LuostarinenF · FLA @ OTT | 1.26 | 36% | 14% | 4% | 15:05 | 5.3 | −6% | 1.5 · o +130 / u −200 |
| Oliver BonkD · PHI @ BUF | 1.24 | 35% | 13% | 4% | 19:57PP 1:21 | 3.5 | −2% | – |
| Gustav ForslingD · FLA @ OTT | 1.24 | 35% | 13% | 4% | 20:53 | 4.0 | −6% | 1.5 · o +100 / u −145 |
| Warren FoegeleF · OTT vs FLA | 1.24 | 35% | 13% | 4% | 12:13 | 6.5 | −6% | 1.5 · o +125 / u −190 |
| Aaron EkbladD · FLA @ OTT | 1.22 | 34% | 13% | 4% | 20:11PP 1:13 | 3.9 | −6% | 1.5 · o +125 / u −185 |
| Tyler KlevenD · OTT vs FLA | 1.21 | 34% | 13% | 4% | 21:34 | 3.8 | −5% | – |
| Sandis VilmanisF · FLA @ OTT | 1.21 | 34% | 13% | 4% | 13:17 | 5.8 | −6% | – |
| Ryan McLeodF · BUF vs PHI | 1.19 | 33% | 12% | 4% | 16:39PP 1:17 | 3.9 | +1% | – |
| Nick SeelerD · PHI @ BUF | 1.16 | 32% | 12% | 4% | 21:16 | 3.7 | −2% | – |
| Lars EllerF · FLA @ OTT | 1.16 | 32% | 12% | 4% | 14:49 | 5.3 | −5% | – |
| Louis CrevierD · BUF vs PHI | 1.15 | 32% | 12% | 3% | 15:13 | 5.0 | +1% | 1.5 · o +135 / u −200 |
| Artem ZubD · OTT vs FLA | 1.12 | 31% | 11% | 3% | 20:12 | 4.0 | −5% | – |
| Peyton KrebsF · BUF vs PHI | 1.10 | 30% | 10% | 3% | 13:41 | 4.8 | +1% | – |
| Michael AmadioF · OTT vs FLA | 1.09 | 30% | 10% | 3% | 14:56 | 4.7 | −5% | – |
| Noah CatesF · PHI @ BUF | 1.08 | 29% | 10% | 3% | 13:26 | 5.2 | −1% | 1.5 · o +120 / u −175 |
| Jacob GaucherF · PHI @ BUFthin | 1.02 | 27% | 9% | 2% | 11:05 | 5.6 | −1% | – |
| Niko MikkolaD · FLA @ OTT | 1.01 | 27% | 9% | 2% | 19:00 | 3.7 | −6% | – |
| Andre BurakovskyF · OTT vs FLA | 0.89 | 23% | 7% | 2% | 12:05PP 2:00 | 4.2 | −6% | 1.5 · o +135 / u −200 |
| David JiricekD · PHI @ BUF | 0.86 | 21% | 6% | 1% | 14:04PP 2:16 | 2.8 | −1% | – |
| Beck MalenstynF · BUF vs PHI | 0.78 | 19% | 5% | 1% | 10:37 | 4.9 | +1% | – |
- Over 1.5
- 60%
- Best over
- −154
- Books
- 58%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 16:49
- PP TOI
- 1:57
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.1
- Matchup
- +1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 60% / 34% / 16%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −154 / u +125
- Olen ZellwegerD · BUF vs PHI2.03Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 59%
- Best over
- −145
- Books
- 54%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 21:26
- PP TOI
- 0:59
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.8
- Matchup
- +1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 59% / 33% / 16%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −145 / u +100
- Sam BennettF · FLA @ OTT2.02Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Best over
- +126
- Books
- 45%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 16:04
- PP TOI
- 1:40
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.6
- Matchup
- −7%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 59% / 33% / 15%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +126 / u −140
- Shane PintoF · OTT vs FLA1.99Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 58%
- Best over
- −148
- Books
- 58%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 18:54
- PP TOI
- 2:06
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.4
- Matchup
- −5%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 58% / 32% / 15%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −148 / u +130
- Noah OstlundF · BUF vs PHI1.94Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 57%
- Best over
- +100
- Books
- 46%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 19:40
- PP TOI
- 4:07
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.1
- Matchup
- +1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 57% / 31% / 14%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +100 / u −145
- Trevor ZegrasF · PHI @ BUF1.90Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 30%
- Best over
- +132
- Books
- 42%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 18:44
- PP TOI
- 3:04
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.1
- Matchup
- −2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 55% / 30% / 13%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +132 / u −165
- Matvei MichkovF · PHI @ BUF1.84Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 28%
- Best over
- +139
- Books
- 43%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 14:51
- PP TOI
- 3:01
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.8
- Matchup
- −1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 54% / 28% / 12%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +139 / u −155
- Claude GirouxF · OTT vs FLA1.84Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 54%
- Best over
- +105
- Books
- 49%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 17:51
- PP TOI
- 3:08
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.9
- Matchup
- −6%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 54% / 28% / 12%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +105 / u −110
- Seth JonesD · FLA @ OTT1.77Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 52%
- Best over
- −110
- Books
- 50%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 23:57
- PP TOI
- 3:50
- SOG/60 5v5
- 4.1
- Matchup
- −6%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 52% / 26% / 11%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −110 / u −111
- Anton LundellF · FLA @ OTT1.77Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 52%
- Best over
- −114
- Books
- 51%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 16:23
- PP TOI
- 1:33
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.9
- Matchup
- −5%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 52% / 26% / 11%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −114 / u +105
- Owen PowerD · BUF vs PHI1.77Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 52%
- Best over
- −105
- Books
- 47%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 27:57
- PP TOI
- 3:46
- SOG/60 5v5
- 3.6
- Matchup
- +1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 52% / 26% / 11%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −105 / u −140
- Konsta HeleniusF · BUF vs PHI1.71Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 50%
- Best over
- +130
- Books
- 39%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 13:42
- PP TOI
- 1:35
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.1
- Matchup
- +1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 50% / 25% / 10%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +130 / u −200
- Christian DvorakF · PHI @ BUF1.68Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 49%
- Best over
- −120
- Books
- 55%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 18:38
- PP TOI
- 1:29
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.3
- Matchup
- −2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 49% / 24% / 10%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −120 / u +110
- Ridly GreigF · OTT vs FLA1.60Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 47%
- Best over
- −105
- Books
- 47%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 16:43
- PP TOI
- 0:52
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.3
- Matchup
- −5%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 47% / 22% / 9%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −105 / u −140
- Porter MartoneF · PHI @ BUF1.59Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 22%
- Best over
- +149
- Books
- 38%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 13:45
- PP TOI
- 2:36
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.4
- Matchup
- −2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 47% / 22% / 9%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +149 / u −190
- Mattias SamuelssonD · BUF vs PHI1.52Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 20%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 25:36
- PP TOI
- 0:08
- SOG/60 5v5
- 3.9
- Matchup
- +1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 44% / 20% / 8%
- Sean CouturierF · PHI @ BUF1.52Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 44%
- Best over
- +110
- Books
- 45%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 17:26
- PP TOI
- 0:11
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.4
- Matchup
- −2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 44% / 20% / 7%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +110 / u −125
- Josh NorrisF · BUF vs PHI1.49Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 43%
- Best over
- +115
- Books
- 51%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 14:47
- PP TOI
- 1:48
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.5
- Matchup
- +1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 43% / 19% / 7%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +115 / u −106
- Fabian ZetterlundF · OTT vs FLA1.48Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 43%
- Best over
- +120
- Books
- 42%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 12:36
- PP TOI
- 1:37
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.1
- Matchup
- −6%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 43% / 19% / 7%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +120 / u −175
- Travis SanheimD · PHI @ BUF1.48Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 19%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 26:49
- PP TOI
- 0:16
- SOG/60 5v5
- 3.4
- Matchup
- −1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 43% / 19% / 7%
- Michael BuntingF · PHI @ BUF1.46Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 42%
- Best over
- +115
- Books
- 44%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 11:36
- PP TOI
- 2:00
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.0
- Matchup
- −1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 42% / 19% / 7%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +115 / u −140
- Jamie DrysdaleD · PHI @ BUF1.41Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 17%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 23:07
- PP TOI
- 2:42
- SOG/60 5v5
- 3.2
- Matchup
- −2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 41% / 17% / 6%
- Carter YakemchukD · OTT vs FLA1.40Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 40%
- Best over
- +105
- Books
- 45%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 19:57
- PP TOI
- 3:13
- SOG/60 5v5
- 3.7
- Matchup
- −6%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 40% / 17% / 6%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +105 / u −155
- Over 1.5
- 40%
- Best over
- −145
- Books
- 54%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 12:24
- PP TOI
- 1:01
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.5
- Matchup
- −1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 40% / 17% / 6%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −145 / u +100
- Jordan SpenceD · OTT vs FLA1.39Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 17%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 22:19
- PP TOI
- 0:18
- SOG/60 5v5
- 4.2
- Matchup
- −5%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 40% / 17% / 6%
- Jiri KulichF · BUF vs PHI1.38Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 17%
- Best over
- +139
- Books
- 39%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 13:33
- PP TOI
- 0:54
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.6
- Matchup
- +1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 40% / 17% / 6%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +139 / u −182
- Stephen HallidayF · OTT vs FLA1.38Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 17%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 12:36
- PP TOI
- 2:41
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.1
- Matchup
- −6%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 40% / 17% / 6%
- Denver BarkeyF · PHI @ BUF1.32Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 15%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 15:33
- PP TOI
- 2:34
- SOG/60 5v5
- 4.0
- Matchup
- −1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 38% / 15% / 5%
- 1.29Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 37%
- Best over
- +120
- Books
- 42%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 12:32
- PP TOI
- 0:10
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.1
- Matchup
- −1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 37% / 14% / 5%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +120 / u −175
- Noel AcciariF · PHI @ BUF1.26Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 36%
- Best over
- +125
- Books
- 40%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 14:19
- PP TOI
- 0:00
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.3
- Matchup
- −1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 36% / 14% / 5%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +125 / u −190
- Eetu LuostarinenF · FLA @ OTT1.26Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 36%
- Best over
- +130
- Books
- 39%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 15:05
- PP TOI
- 0:54
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.3
- Matchup
- −6%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 36% / 14% / 4%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +130 / u −200
- Oliver BonkD · PHI @ BUF1.24Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 13%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 19:57
- PP TOI
- 1:21
- SOG/60 5v5
- 3.5
- Matchup
- −2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 35% / 13% / 4%
- Gustav ForslingD · FLA @ OTT1.24Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 35%
- Best over
- +100
- Books
- 46%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 20:53
- PP TOI
- 0:40
- SOG/60 5v5
- 4.0
- Matchup
- −6%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 35% / 13% / 4%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +100 / u −145
- Warren FoegeleF · OTT vs FLA1.24Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 35%
- Best over
- +125
- Books
- 40%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 12:13
- PP TOI
- 0:10
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.5
- Matchup
- −6%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 35% / 13% / 4%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +125 / u −190
- Aaron EkbladD · FLA @ OTT1.22Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 34%
- Best over
- +125
- Books
- 41%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 20:11
- PP TOI
- 1:13
- SOG/60 5v5
- 3.9
- Matchup
- −6%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 34% / 13% / 4%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +125 / u −185
- Tyler KlevenD · OTT vs FLA1.21Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 13%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 21:34
- PP TOI
- 0:04
- SOG/60 5v5
- 3.8
- Matchup
- −5%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 34% / 13% / 4%
- Sandis VilmanisF · FLA @ OTT1.21Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 13%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 13:17
- PP TOI
- 0:10
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.8
- Matchup
- −6%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 34% / 13% / 4%
- Ryan McLeodF · BUF vs PHI1.19Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 12%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 16:39
- PP TOI
- 1:17
- SOG/60 5v5
- 3.9
- Matchup
- +1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 33% / 12% / 4%
- Nick SeelerD · PHI @ BUF1.16Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 12%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 21:16
- PP TOI
- 0:01
- SOG/60 5v5
- 3.7
- Matchup
- −2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 32% / 12% / 4%
- Lars EllerF · FLA @ OTT1.16Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 12%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 14:49
- PP TOI
- 0:39
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.3
- Matchup
- −5%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 32% / 12% / 4%
- Louis CrevierD · BUF vs PHI1.15Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 32%
- Best over
- +135
- Books
- 39%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 15:13
- PP TOI
- 0:00
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.0
- Matchup
- +1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 32% / 12% / 3%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +135 / u −200
- Over 2.5
- 11%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 20:12
- PP TOI
- 0:08
- SOG/60 5v5
- 4.0
- Matchup
- −5%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 31% / 11% / 3%
- Peyton KrebsF · BUF vs PHI1.10Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 10%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 13:41
- PP TOI
- 0:07
- SOG/60 5v5
- 4.8
- Matchup
- +1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 30% / 10% / 3%
- Michael AmadioF · OTT vs FLA1.09Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 10%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 14:56
- PP TOI
- 0:02
- SOG/60 5v5
- 4.7
- Matchup
- −5%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 30% / 10% / 3%
- Noah CatesF · PHI @ BUF1.08Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 29%
- Best over
- +120
- Books
- 42%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 13:26
- PP TOI
- 0:06
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.2
- Matchup
- −1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 29% / 10% / 3%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +120 / u −175
- 1.02Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 9%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 11:05
- PP TOI
- 0:07
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.6
- Matchup
- −1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 27% / 9% / 2%
- Niko MikkolaD · FLA @ OTT1.01Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 9%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 19:00
- PP TOI
- 0:03
- SOG/60 5v5
- 3.7
- Matchup
- −6%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 27% / 9% / 2%
- Andre BurakovskyF · OTT vs FLA0.89Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 23%
- Best over
- +135
- Books
- 39%
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 12:05
- PP TOI
- 2:00
- SOG/60 5v5
- 4.2
- Matchup
- −6%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 23% / 7% / 2%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +135 / u −200
- David JiricekD · PHI @ BUF0.86Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 6%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 14:04
- PP TOI
- 2:16
- SOG/60 5v5
- 2.8
- Matchup
- −1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 21% / 6% / 1%
- Beck MalenstynF · BUF vs PHI0.78Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 5%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 10:37
- PP TOI
- 0:02
- SOG/60 5v5
- 4.9
- Matchup
- +1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 19% / 5% / 1%
How the projections work
- 1. How often he shoots
- For each strength state (5-on-5, power play, shorthanded, other), we take the shooter's unblocked attempts per 60 minutes and the share of them that hit the net, from every game in roughly the last 14 months. Recent games count more (the weight halves every 8 months), and both numbers are shrunk toward the forward or defenseman average, so a hot week or a short history barely moves them. Missed shots recorded in a rink whose scorers log more misses than the league are scaled down using our arena scorer factors.
- 2. How much he will play
- Projected 5-on-5 time is a weighted average of his last 10 games, with the latest counting most. Power-play time is his share of his team's recent PP minutes times the PP time we expect tonight: the average of his team's recent PP time and the opponent's recent shorthanded time. The lineup is whoever dressed in the team's last game, or the forecast lineup when our matchup forecast has one.
- 3. Who he will face
- Every skater gets a 5-on-5 shot-suppression rating from a ridge regression on line changes (RAPM-style): unblocked attempts against while he is on the ice, adjusted for his teammates, the opponents and home ice, with every rating pulled toward zero. A shooter's matchup factor averages the opposing skaters' ratings, weighted by the minutes he is expected to share with each. Those minutes come from the matchup forecast (which knows the home coach has last change) when it is available; otherwise from each opponent's projected 5-on-5 time.
- 4. Power play and venue
- Power-play shots are scaled by the opponent's shots allowed per 60 while shorthanded, shrunk toward the league rate. Home teams shoot a little more at 5-on-5; the home and road split comes from the same regression.
- 5. From an average to a probability
- Shots in one game spread out more than a simple Poisson count, because ice time and role move from night to night. We use a negative binomial distribution whose extra spread was fit on last season's out-of-sample projections, then read off P(2+), P(3+) and P(4+) shots.
Last fit Oct 21: 1,545 games, 999 skaters rated.
How accurate is it?
Held-out test: Oct 7, 2025 – Apr 16, 2026
Every game in the test season was projected using only data from before that day, the way the live model works. Lineups were the players who dressed; ice time was projected, not known. Shots on goal are the official count (shootout attempts excluded), arena scorer factors came from the previous season, and the spread of the distribution was fit on the previous season. Lower log-loss is better. The live model scored 1.5332 against 1.5441 for a shots-per-game baseline given the same distribution (mean squared error 1.723 vs 1.757). Defender matchup ratings improved on the team-level adjustment by +0.00026 nats per projection (95% interval +0.00001 to +0.00053, resampling whole games); mean squared error 1.724 → 1.723. The gain also showed up in the tuning season. It is a real but very small effect. Even with perfect knowledge of who played against whom, the gain would be 0.0000: ice time and the shooter's own volume dominate.
| Model | Projections | Log-loss | Mean sq. error | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots per game, last 12 months | 47,230 | 1.5441 | 1.757 | 0.441 |
| Shooter rate × projected ice time | 47,230 | 1.5352 | 1.730 | 0.455 |
| + opponent team 5v5 and penalty kill | 47,230 | 1.5335 | 1.724 | 0.458 |
| + defender ratings by expected matchup (live model) | 47,230 | 1.5332 | 1.723 | 0.458 |
| Hindsight: actual matchups (upper bound, not usable) | 47,230 | 1.5332 | 1.723 | 0.458 |
Show as a table
| Line | Bin | n | Projected | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ SOG | 0–10% | 169 | 7.7% | 9.5% |
| 2+ SOG | 10–20% | 3,633 | 16.6% | 16.2% |
| 2+ SOG | 20–30% | 8,907 | 25.3% | 22.9% |
| 2+ SOG | 30–40% | 9,632 | 34.9% | 32.8% |
| 2+ SOG | 40–50% | 8,016 | 44.8% | 43.5% |
| 2+ SOG | 50–60% | 6,692 | 55.0% | 54.5% |
| 2+ SOG | 60–70% | 5,722 | 64.6% | 64.7% |
| 2+ SOG | 70–80% | 3,375 | 74.5% | 74.8% |
| 2+ SOG | 80–90% | 1,067 | 83.0% | 84.7% |
| 2+ SOG | 90–100% | 17 | 90.9% | 100.0% |
| 3+ SOG | 0–10% | 11,961 | 6.5% | 5.9% |
| 3+ SOG | 10–20% | 13,994 | 14.6% | 13.7% |
| 3+ SOG | 20–30% | 8,264 | 24.6% | 23.8% |
| 3+ SOG | 30–40% | 6,282 | 34.8% | 35.5% |
| 3+ SOG | 40–50% | 3,719 | 44.6% | 44.1% |
| 3+ SOG | 50–60% | 2,071 | 54.7% | 56.7% |
| 3+ SOG | 60–70% | 826 | 63.6% | 66.7% |
| 3+ SOG | 70–80% | 112 | 73.1% | 72.3% |
| 3+ SOG | 80–90% | 1 | 80.2% | 0.0% |
| 4+ SOG | 0–10% | 30,086 | 4.1% | 3.8% |
| 4+ SOG | 10–20% | 9,863 | 14.5% | 14.8% |
| 4+ SOG | 20–30% | 4,442 | 24.3% | 24.4% |
| 4+ SOG | 30–40% | 2,020 | 34.6% | 34.6% |
| 4+ SOG | 40–50% | 695 | 43.7% | 44.7% |
| 4+ SOG | 50–60% | 116 | 53.6% | 57.8% |
| 4+ SOG | 60–70% | 8 | 61.8% | 75.0% |
This season so far
3,983 projections across 117 games through Oct 21: 1.54 expected SOG per skater against 1.55 actual.
Show as a table
| Line | Bin | n | Projected | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ SOG | 0–10% | 24 | 8.7% | 4.2% |
| 2+ SOG | 10–20% | 273 | 16.5% | 17.9% |
| 2+ SOG | 20–30% | 742 | 25.3% | 21.8% |
| 2+ SOG | 30–40% | 907 | 34.7% | 35.9% |
| 2+ SOG | 40–50% | 706 | 44.8% | 47.9% |
| 2+ SOG | 50–60% | 575 | 54.7% | 51.0% |
| 2+ SOG | 60–70% | 433 | 65.0% | 64.0% |
| 2+ SOG | 70–80% | 253 | 74.2% | 78.3% |
| 2+ SOG | 80–90% | 70 | 82.3% | 81.4% |
| 3+ SOG | 0–10% | 953 | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| 3+ SOG | 10–20% | 1,300 | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| 3+ SOG | 20–30% | 755 | 24.7% | 25.0% |
| 3+ SOG | 30–40% | 456 | 34.7% | 31.1% |
| 3+ SOG | 40–50% | 320 | 44.5% | 46.9% |
| 3+ SOG | 50–60% | 139 | 54.8% | 59.0% |
| 3+ SOG | 60–70% | 59 | 63.1% | 76.3% |
| 3+ SOG | 70–80% | 1 | 71.1% | 0.0% |
| 4+ SOG | 0–10% | 2,626 | 4.1% | 4.4% |
| 4+ SOG | 10–20% | 781 | 14.1% | 12.7% |
| 4+ SOG | 20–30% | 399 | 24.3% | 24.6% |
| 4+ SOG | 30–40% | 127 | 35.2% | 40.9% |
| 4+ SOG | 40–50% | 49 | 43.2% | 53.1% |
| 4+ SOG | 50–60% | 1 | 51.9% | 0.0% |
FAQ
How are NHL shots on goal projections calculated?
Expected SOG = projected ice time at each strength × the shooter's shrunk shots-per-60 at that strength × a matchup factor. The matchup factor comes from the shot-suppression ratings of the opposing skaters he is expected to face at 5-on-5, and from the opponent's penalty kill on the power play. The probabilities come from a negative binomial distribution fit on last season.
Are these betting picks?
No. These are model projections, not bets. The table shows the sportsbook shots line and best prices from up to five US books for context. Since we started logging our projections against those lines before each game (October 2026), the books have been about as accurate as the model on shots on goal, which is not an edge once the bookmaker margin is paid. A 60% projection still misses four times in ten, and the calibration section shows how the probabilities have held up.
How accurate are the projections?
We test the model the way it is used: for every game of a full held-out season, it only sees data from before that day. The methodology section on this page shows the log-loss against a simple shots-per-game baseline and a calibration chart. When we say 40%, it should happen about 40% of the time.
Is this the same SOG number as the daily projections table?
Yes. Tonight's shots on goal and time on ice in the daily fantasy projections table come from this model, so a skater shows the same expected SOG on both pages. On the first graded nights of the season it beat the provider projection it replaced on squared error, log-loss and correlation with actual shots.
Does the opposing defense pair really matter?
Somewhat, and less than ice time and the shooter's own volume. The page reports how much the matchup factor improves accuracy over a team-level adjustment, and how repeatable the defender ratings are from one half of the games to the other. Most matchup factors land between 0.9 and 1.1.
When do the projections update?
Overnight, after the previous night's games, and again during the day as lineups settle. Players who did not dress in their team's last game are left out until they do, so check confirmed lines before puck drop.
Why is a player I expected missing?
The lineup comes from the team's most recent game (or the matchup forecast when it has one). A player returning from injury or a healthy scratch is not projected until he dresses again.