Injury cascade
Who benefits when Justin Danforth is out?
Justin Danforth (R, Buffalo Sabres) plays 10:11 a night on L4, with 1% of the team's power-play time over his last 10 games. He has missed the team's last 1 game.
Only 2 games without Justin Danforth so far; history is blended with line-adjacency estimates. Through games of Oct 21, 2026.
Expected change per game without him
+0:29 TOI, +9 PP% · 76% rost
+1:26 TOI · 81% rost
+0:24 TOI, +3 PP% · 55% rost
+0:04 TOI, +4 PP% · 32% rost
−0:40 TOI · 16% rost
−1:25 TOI, −6 PP% · 31% rost
Ranked beneficiaries
Show
| Player | Games | Exp. Δ TOI | Rost % | Basis | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack QuinnRIn 2 games without Justin Danforth, Jack Quinn played 19:10 (+0:58) and took PP1 in 2 of them (70% of games with him). | 2 | 18:12 → 19:10 | +0:29 | 47% → 65% | 2/2 | 76%▲25 | Games without him |
| Mattias SamuelssonDIn 2 games without Justin Danforth, Mattias Samuelsson played 24:55 (+2:52). | 2 | 22:03 → 24:55 | +1:26 | 1% → 4% | 0/2 | 81%▲4.9 | Games without him |
| Zach BensonLIn 2 games without Justin Danforth, Zach Benson played 20:31 (+0:48) and PP share went 57% → 63%. | 2 | 19:42 → 20:31 | +0:24 | 57% → 63% | 2/2 | 55%▲1.5 | Games without him |
| Noah OstlundCIn 2 games without Justin Danforth, Noah Ostlund played 19:47 (+0:08) and PP share went 57% → 65%. | 2 | 19:39 → 19:47 | +0:04 | 57% → 65% | 2/2 | 32%▲2.6 | Games without him |
| Peyton KrebsCIn 2 games without Justin Danforth, Peyton Krebs played 11:59 (−1:20) and moved up to his L4 slot in 1. | 2 | 13:19 → 11:59 | −0:40 | 2% → 0% | 0/2 | 16%▼0.8 | Games without him |
| Josh NorrisCIn 2 games without Justin Danforth, Josh Norris played 12:34 (−2:49), PP share went 31% → 18% and moved up to his L4 slot in 1. | 2 | 15:23 → 12:34 | −1:25 | 31% → 18% | 0/2 | 31%▼2.6 | Games without him |
FAQ
Who benefits when Justin Danforth is out?
Jack Quinn projects to gain the most (+0:29 a game). In 2 games without Justin Danforth, Jack Quinn played 19:10 (+0:58) and took PP1 in 2 of them (70% of games with him).
How many games has BUF played without Justin Danforth?
2 games in the loaded seasons while he was on the roster, against 10 with him.
How it works
- We find every game the injured player missed while on the team's roster this season and last (including the current absence), and compare each teammate's ice time, power-play share and PP1 usage in those games with the games the injured player dressed.
- Changes are shrunk toward zero when the sample is small (a change over n games counts n / (n + 2) of its size), so one odd game does not crown a beneficiary.
- When there is little or no absence history, we fall back to line adjacency from our shift-based line detection: the next man up on his power-play unit (the top PP2 player at his position) and the best player one line or pair below his.
- Players are ranked by expected fantasy opportunity: TOI minutes, plus power-play share (10 points of PP share ≈ 1.2 minutes of even-strength TOI), plus PP1 gains.