Injury cascade
Who benefits when Sam Carrick is out?
Sam Carrick (C, Buffalo Sabres) plays 8:18 a night on L4, with 0% of the team's power-play time over his last 10 games. He has missed the team's last 2 games.
Based on 21 games without Sam Carrick and 18 with him. Through games of Oct 21, 2026.
Expected change per game without him
+0:24 TOI, +16 PP% · 32% rost
+1:29 TOI, +12 PP% · 55% rost
+1:42 TOI · 3.2% rost
+1:02 TOI, +4 PP% · 76% rost
−0:17 TOI, +7 PP% · 75% rost
+0:03 TOI · 33% rost
Ranked beneficiaries
Show
| Player | Games | Exp. Δ TOI | Rost % | Basis | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah OstlundCIn 9 games without Sam Carrick, Noah Ostlund played 16:48 (+0:30), took PP1 in 7 of them (21% of games with him) and moved up to his L4 slot in 1. | 9 | 16:19 → 16:48 | +0:24 | 29% → 49% | 7/9 | 32%▲2.6 | Games without him |
| Zach BensonLIn 21 games without Sam Carrick, Zach Benson played 17:19 (+1:37), PP share went 22% → 35% and moved up to his L4 slot in 1. | 21 | 15:41 → 17:19 | +1:29 | 22% → 35% | 7/21 | 55%▲1.5 | Games without him |
| Zach MetsaDIn 10 games without Sam Carrick, Zach Metsa played 14:36 (+2:03). | 10 | 12:33 → 14:36 | +1:42 | 0% → 2% | 0/10 | 3.2% | Games without him |
| Jack QuinnRIn 21 games without Sam Carrick, Jack Quinn played 17:22 (+1:07) and took PP1 in 16 of them (61% of games with him). | 21 | 16:15 → 17:22 | +1:02 | 46% → 50% | 16/21 | 76%▲25 | Games without him |
| Owen PowerDIn 21 games without Sam Carrick, Owen Power played 22:26 (−0:19) and PP share went 9% → 16%. | 21 | 22:45 → 22:26 | −0:17 | 9% → 16% | 3/21 | 75%▲5 | Games without him |
| Olen ZellwegerDIn 6 games without Sam Carrick, Olen Zellweger played 19:34 (+0:05). | 6 | 19:30 → 19:34 | +0:03 | 7% → 10% | 0/6 | 33%▲5.1 | Games without him |
FAQ
Who benefits when Sam Carrick is out?
Noah Ostlund projects to gain the most (+0:24 a game). In 9 games without Sam Carrick, Noah Ostlund played 16:48 (+0:30), took PP1 in 7 of them (21% of games with him) and moved up to his L4 slot in 1.
How many games has BUF played without Sam Carrick?
21 games in the loaded seasons while he was on the roster, against 18 with him.
How it works
- We find every game the injured player missed while on the team's roster this season and last (including the current absence), and compare each teammate's ice time, power-play share and PP1 usage in those games with the games the injured player dressed.
- Changes are shrunk toward zero when the sample is small (a change over n games counts n / (n + 2) of its size), so one odd game does not crown a beneficiary.
- When there is little or no absence history, we fall back to line adjacency from our shift-based line detection: the next man up on his power-play unit (the top PP2 player at his position) and the best player one line or pair below his.
- Players are ranked by expected fantasy opportunity: TOI minutes, plus power-play share (10 points of PP share ≈ 1.2 minutes of even-strength TOI), plus PP1 gains.