Passes Got Shorter, but the Deep Ball Never Left

The average pass lost three-quarters of a yard

The rest of the league moved the same way, only less far. Picture a throw from the 30-yard line that is caught at the 35. That pass counts as 5 air yards, however far the receiver runs after the catch. A flip caught two yards behind the line counts as minus 2.

In 2006, the first season with air yards in the NFL's play-by-play, the average pass traveled about 8.5 air yards. In 2025 it traveled about 7.8, roughly three-quarters of a yard less. Most of that came after 2019. The league sat at 8.2 that year, 7.9 in 2020 and 7.8 in 2021. The high point was 8.7 in 2011, and the low was 7.7 in 2024.

The solid line is every pass. It drifts down through the 2010s and drops hard after 2019. The upper, dashed line counts only throws that crossed the line of scrimmage, and it barely moves; the next section comes back to it.

The drop is too big and too steady to be luck. In a typical year the league average moves about a seventh of a yard from the year before, and luck alone could push any one season about that far. The biggest one-year fall came from 2019 to 2020, about three-tenths of a yard (0.30), just ahead of 2006 to 2007 (0.28). Every season since 2021 sits below every season from 2006 to 2019. Across all 20 seasons, the trend line falls about four-tenths of a yard a decade.

Caught passes got shorter too. Counting only completions, the average fell from about 6.6 air yards in 2006 to 5.8 in 2025. Half of all passes in 2025 traveled 5 air yards or less. In 2006 the halfway mark was 6, and 2018 was the first season it slipped to 5.

The deep ball never left

When passes shrink, fans blame the deep ball first. In 2006 about one pass in eight went 20 yards or more in the air (12.6%). In 2025 it was a bit fewer than one in eight (11.5%). Every one of our 20 seasons sat between 11 and 13 in every 100 (11.3% at the lowest, 12.6% at the highest), though the share has run a little lower since 2020, about 11.5 in 100 a season against about 12 in the 2010s.

The throws that did cross the line barely shortened. Counting only those, the average went from 10.86 yards in 2006–19 to 10.71 in 2021–25, a loss of about 0.15 of a yard. That is the dashed line in the first chart. Throws of 1 to 9 yards held as well, at a little under half of all passes in both eras (46.9% in 2006–10, 45.9% in 2021–25).

Some days the deep ball is still the whole plan. On September 26, 2021, at Detroit, Lamar Jackson's 30 throws averaged 17.63 air yards, the deepest game in our data among 8,636 quarterback games with 25 or more attempts. Of those, 11 went 20 yards or more, and none was at or behind the line. The Ravens won 19–17 on a day of long distances, with a 4th-and-19 conversion to Sammy Watkins for 36 yards and a 66-yard Justin Tucker field goal that, CBS Sports reported, “broke the previous NFL record” (Jacksonville's Cam Little topped it with a 68-yarder on November 2, 2025).

More throws end at or behind the line

So the yards came off the short end. Picture a bubble screen to a receiver standing two yards behind the line, or a running back catching a flip in the flat. Throws like that, at or behind the line of scrimmage, were about one pass in five in 2006–19 (18.9%) and a bit more than one in five in 2021–25 (21.9%). They peaked at 22.7% in 2023.

Compare the two stretches, 2006–19 and 2021–25, and the average pass went from about 8.4 air yards to 7.8, about two-thirds of a yard less. About three-fifths of that loss came from having more of those short-end throws. About a fifth came from short-end throws landing further back, partly because fewer were marked at exactly 0. The last fifth came from throws past the line traveling a little less far. Throws strictly behind the line landed about 3.3 yards back in the first stretch and 3.5 in the second.

The 20+ line runs flat from end to end. The at-or-behind line climbs to its highest levels in the 2020s and passes the 10–19 line. The dashed line for throws marked at exactly 0 is the subject of the next section.

Some of that growth may be in how scorers mark throws

Every one of those throws was marked by a person. Take a flip caught right at the line. One scorer might mark it 0, another minus 1. Throws marked strictly behind the line rose from about 11 in 100 in 2006 to about 18 in 2025, and that looks like a screen-pass boom. Over the same years, throws marked at exactly 0 fell from about 9 in 100 to about 3, and that drop eats up most of the boom. Count everything at or behind the line together, and it was 19.9% of throws in 2006 and 21.2% in 2025. Those are single seasons, so they differ a little from the 2006–19 and 2021–25 figures above.

The 0 marks did not fall smoothly either. They were 9.1% of throws in 2006, 3.5% in 2013, 6.4% in 2017 and 3.4% in 2025. It is hard to picture teams throwing at the line less than half as often by 2013, nearly twice as often by 2017, then about half as often again. A change in how scorers mark those throws would look like that. Some of the rise at the short end may be bookkeeping.

The marks have other gaps, too. They start in 2006; earlier seasons have none. 99.6–99.9% of attempts in 2006–09 have a mark, and from 2010 on nearly all of them do. They are made by hand, and the exactly-0 swings above show the marking can drift. Other feeds measure depth differently and give different numbers, so none are mixed in here. Throwaways cannot be separated from aimed passes, so a quarterback who throws the ball away a lot can look shorter or longer than he is. Sacks, spikes and scrambles are not attempts, so a quarterback who holds the ball and takes sacks gets no depth for those plays.

The shorter throws come on first and second down

Whatever the scorers did, the shorter throws piled up on early downs. On first and second down, the average pass fell from about 8.4 air yards in 2006 to 7.3 in 2025. On third down, where a 3rd-and-8 needs a throw past the sticks, it went from about 8.7 to 8.9.

The early-down line slides most of the way. The third-down line wanders and ends a little higher than it started. The slide isn't just late-game or blowout passing. Take only games still in doubt, and leave out the last two minutes of each half. There the average pass fell from about 8.6 air yards in 2006 to 7.4 in 2025. That is more than a yard, about 50% more than on all plays.

The play-by-play can say which downs got shorter, and when. It can’t show why, and some of the slide may just be the marking.

Fewer quarterbacks average nine yards a throw

Another way to see the drop is to count the passers. In 2011, 16 of the 33 quarterbacks with 250 or more attempts averaged 9 air yards or more. In 2020 only one did, Tom Brady, in his first season in Tampa Bay, at 9.13. Since then the count has not passed five. At the other end, passers averaging under 7 went from none in 2011 to nine in both 2022 and 2024.

Single-season counts jump around (five passers at 9 or more in 2022, two in 2023), so read the shape. Before 2020 there were five to 16 a season; since then, one to five.

When Goff and Stafford swapped teams, each kept his depth

Does a passer's depth follow him, or stay with the team he leaves? A trade is the cleanest look. On January 30, 2021, the Associated Press reported that the Lions were trading Matthew Stafford to the Rams for Jared Goff, “two future first-round picks and a third-round pick.” Goff's passes averaged about 6.5 air yards in his last season in Los Angeles and 6.4 in his first in Detroit. Stafford went the other way, from about 8.9 in Detroit to 8.5 in Los Angeles.

They met on October 24, 2021, Goff's first game back in Los Angeles. Stafford “passed for 334 yards and three touchdowns against his former team,” the AP wrote, in a 28–19 Rams win. His 41 throws averaged 9.34 air yards. Goff's 34 averaged 3.88.

Goff's line stays low after the trade. Stafford's dips for three seasons, then climbs to the top of the league in 2025. Mahomes' falls every year to 2024, then jumps back.

One trade is two players, so we checked all 50 times a quarterback with 250+ attempts changed teams between seasons. The new team's depth from the year before showed almost no link to how deep he would throw. His own depth from the year before was a better guide, if only a little. With only 50 moves, that gap could be luck.

Stafford himself shows the limits. After 8.5 in his first Rams season, he threw 6.7, 7.8 and 7.5, before throwing the longest passes in the league in 2025. Goff has been below the league average in every season since the trade.

Patrick Mahomes changed without changing teams. He averaged 9.08 air yards in 2018, then less every season, down to 6.36 in 2024. In an ESPN story in October 2024, he said, “Teams are going to make you drive the entire field.” In 2025 he was back up to 8.10.

Passing stopped getting better

All those shorter throws did not buy extra yards. Yards per pass attempt climbed from about 6.9 in 2006 to a peak of 7.4 in 2018. From 2021 to 2025 it averaged about 7.1, a little below the 7.2 of 2016–20, though still above the 7.0 of 2006–10.

The line climbs for a decade, tops out in 2018, and has stayed below that peak since. The play-by-play also scores each snap in points. A 4-yard catch on 3rd-and-3 keeps a drive alive and earns credit. The same catch on 3rd-and-10 brings on the punter and costs some. The stat is called expected points added, or EPA. Over every pass play, sacks and scrambles included, they averaged about 0.05 a play in 2016–20 and 0.03 in 2021–25, a couple of hundredths of a point less. That is small. It is still not a gain.

Some things did improve. Completion rates climbed from about 60 in 100 throws in 2006 to 65 in 2025. Interceptions fell from about 3.2 in 100 to 2.2. More of each completion's yards now come after the catch, 42% in 2006 and 47% in 2025. Even so, yards per throw has stayed below its 2018 peak.

Throws past the line gain more than they used to, and the shorter mix gave a little back

Inside that flat average, two things pulled against each other. The shorter mix cost a little, about a tenth of a yard a throw, because more throws ended at or behind the line, where a pass gains least. Better results at each depth past the line won back more, about a fifth of a yard. Running the test in either order gives the same answer, and a second way of grouping the depths points the same way (about a quarter of a yard won back and a seventh lost in one order).

Throws of 20 yards or more gained about 11.5 yards each in 2006–10 and 12.0 in 2021–25. Throws at or behind the line gained about 4.5 in both.

A short passer is not much worse, either. Across 629 quarterback seasons, how deep a passer threw, compared with the league that year, barely told you how well his passing went by expected points added.

Frequently asked questions

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• How Football Changed: every NFL data story →Long-run charts of how the NFL game, its players and its markets have changed.
• The pass revolution ended before you noticed →How often NFL teams drop back to pass, from 1963 to today.
• Is the NFL backing away from the shotgun? →Offenses went back under center, and play-action came with them.
• NFL quarterbacks are getting sacked like it’s 1999 →Sacks fell unevenly for decades, then climbed back after 2016.
• NFL Prop Lab →Betting ideas tested against real results and closing odds.

Sources and method

1. nflverse play-by-play (CC-BY 4.0)
2. AP via CBS Sports, "Aaron Rodgers throws 4 TD passes in his Steelers debut, leads 34-32 comeback win over Jets" (Sep 7, 2025)
3. ESPN, Stephen Holder, "Why passing yards are declining in the NFL" (Oct 1, 2024)
4. AP via Bangor Daily News, "Lions trade Matthew Stafford to Rams for Jared Goff, top draft picks" (Jan 30, 2021)
5. AP via FOX 2 Detroit, "Stafford throws 3 TD passes, Rams edge Goff's Lions 28-19" (Oct 24, 2021)
6. NBC4 Washington, "Jacksonville Jaguars kicker Cam Little sets NFL record for longest field goal" (Nov 2, 2025)
7. CBS Sports, "Ravens' Justin Tucker stuns Lions with NFL record-setting 66-yard field goal on final play of game" (Sep 26, 2021)
8. PFWA via Commanders.com, "Alex Smith Named PFWA Comeback Player Of The Year" (Jan 22, 2021)

Research and analysis, not betting advice. Past results do not guarantee future returns; bet only what you can afford to lose.