How Football ChangedThe long arc
Nickel Became Base, Then Base Came Back
Defenses kept adding a fifth defensive back, a cornerback or safety in place of a bigger player, until 2023. Two seasons later the league was back about where it stood in 2016. Offenses used bigger lineups, and defenses used bigger players too.
By Edgehalla ResearchPublished 7 min read
On April 4, 2016, Jared Dubin of CBS Sports looked at how often teams were putting a fifth defensive back on the field and wrote: "it's about time we start referring to sets with five defensive backs as the base NFL defense."
Picture third-and-7. The offense splits three wide receivers out. The defense pulls a linebacker and sends in a fifth defensive back, a cornerback or safety, to cover the extra man. That is the nickel. The old base defense kept four.
In 2016, defenses went to five or more defensive backs on about seven plays in ten. In 2025 it was about seven in ten again.
On this page
The fifth defensive back spread until 2023, then pulled back
Dubin was describing a league already leaning that way. On first-and-10 against a fullback and a tight end, the old base defense keeps seven bigger players, linemen and linebackers, near the line to stop the run. Against three wide receivers, one of them comes off. A cornerback goes in to follow the slot receiver, the man lined up inside, between the outside receiver and the line. On third-and-15, some teams send in a sixth defensive back. That is dime, and we count it as nickel too.
The nickel kept gaining, in fits. Of the seven year-to-year changes from 2016 to 2023, four were rises. The biggest jump came in 2018, about eight more plays in every 100. By 2023, defenses had five or more defensive backs out on nearly four plays in five. The old base defense was down to about one play in five.
Nickel rose to nearly four plays in five in 2023, then fell back to about seven in ten
Share of plays with five or more defensive backs on the field, with three or more wide receivers, and with six or more defensive backs (dime), 2016–2025.
Show data
| Year | Defense: nickel or dime | Offense: 3+ wide receivers | Defense: dime (6+ defensive backs) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 68.7% | 64.9% | 12.6% |
| 2017 | 65.8% | 61.8% | 13.6% |
| 2018 | 74.2% | 65.8% | 14.2% |
| 2019 | 71.8% | 62.5% | 16.1% |
| 2020 | 74.6% | 62.9% | 14.8% |
| 2021 | 75.2% | 62.7% | 13.8% |
| 2022 | 73.4% | 63.4% | 10.7% |
| 2023 | 78.2% | 65.6% | 11.7% |
| 2024 | 75.6% | 63.4% | 10.0% |
| 2025 | 69.0% | 58.3% | 9.4% |
- FTN data: 2023 to 2025
- 2023: Peak: 78.2%
- 2025: 2025: 69.0%
The top line is the nickel. It fell in 2024 and again in 2025, and the 2025 drop was the biggest one-year fall in our ten seasons of data. By the end of 2025, five defensive backs were out on about seven plays in ten, about where they stood in 2016.
The dashed line is dime. It had mostly been fading since 2019, from about one play in six to fewer than one in ten in 2025. The six-back defense started shrinking four seasons before the five-back one did.
The peak came in the same season a new company started charting the plays. Before trusting the retreat, we checked whether the data made it up.
The 2023 peak is partly in doubt. The fall holds up
Three things could have faked the retreat: a new charting company, the way positions are labeled, and a few odd games. None of them did.
Start with the company. The league's tracking data recorded who was on the field through 2022. A charting company took over in 2023, and nickel jumped about five plays in every 100 that year. Some of that jump may be the switch. That leaves two doubts. We can't be sure how big the 2023 step really was. And because any comparison of 2025 with 2016 crosses the switch, we can't say exactly how the two compare.
The retreat itself is safe. From 2018 through 2022, before the switch, defenses already had five defensive backs out on roughly three plays in four, sometimes a little less. After it, with one company charting both seasons, nickel went from about three plays in four in 2024 to about seven in ten in 2025, and 22 of 32 defenses dropped.
The old data has one more gap. About 7% of 2016's plays are missing, among them more than nine in ten of the Ravens' defensive plays. The 2018 and 2019 seasons lost 660 and 1,237 plays.
Next, the labels. Our count goes by the roster, and a team can list a safety at linebacker. A listed weight doesn't depend on the position label. Most cornerbacks and safeties are listed well under 215 pounds, and most linebackers are listed above it. So we also counted defenders by listed weight. On about two plays in three in 2023, five or more of them were listed under 215 pounds. By 2025 it was a little more than half.
Counted by weight, defenses got bigger from 2023 to 2025 too
Solid line: share of plays with five or more defenders listed under 215 lb. Dashed line: share with five or more defensive backs, for comparison.
Show data
| Year | 5+ defenders under 215 lb | 5+ defensive backs |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 48.5% | 68.7% |
| 2017 | 47.6% | 65.8% |
| 2018 | 57.5% | 74.2% |
| 2019 | 56.2% | 71.8% |
| 2020 | 59.0% | 74.6% |
| 2021 | 61.0% | 75.2% |
| 2022 | 61.2% | 73.4% |
| 2023 | 65.6% | 78.2% |
| 2024 | 64.0% | 75.6% |
| 2025 | 55.3% | 69.0% |
The solid line is the weight count. It turned down after 2023 right along with the nickel, and it shares the nickel's jump in 2023, about four plays in every 100, the year the charting company changed. Unlike the nickel, it never fell back to its 2016 level of a little under half. The 215-pound line is rough, and some 2025 weights were re-listed. Keep returning players at their 2024 weights and 2025 comes out at about three plays in five, still below 2023.
Jamal Adams spent his career as a safety. The 2025 Raiders listed him at linebacker, so our count calls him one, and he was on the field for 412 of their 1,049 plays. Count him as a defensive back and the Raiders' nickel jumps from about two plays in five to nearly two in three. That is one team. Do the same for every former safety listed at linebacker and the league barely moves. Its 2025 figure stays about seven in ten, and the drop since 2023 shrinks from about nine plays in every 100 to about eight. We also rebuilt every play player by player from the season rosters. That count matches the charted lineups on more than 99% of plays in every season. The labels pass.
Last, the odd games. Blowouts and one strange half-season did not do it. Nickel was down in both halves of 2025, near seven plays in ten each time. In close games, on first and second down before the fourth quarter, it slipped from about seven in ten in 2023 to about six in ten. Pass plays and run plays both lost nickel. On passes it fell about six plays in every 100. On runs it fell about twelve.
The retreat is real. It just didn’t happen against every offense.
Three wide receivers still draw the nickel. Two tight ends draw it less
Against three wide receivers, defenses barely changed their answer. When an offense spread three of them out, defenses answered with a fifth defensive back more than nine times in ten, in every season from 2016 to 2025.
Against three wide receivers, nickel barely moved. Against bigger lineups, it climbed
Share of plays with five or more defensive backs, by the offense’s lineup.
Show data
| Year | Three wide receivers | Two tight ends | Two running backs | Three tight ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 96.1% | 28.2% | 12.0% | 10.3% |
| 2017 | 95.4% | 23.0% | 24.2% | 4.2% |
| 2018 | 97.2% | 37.0% | 33.7% | 12.4% |
| 2019 | 96.6% | 41.0% | 32.0% | 10.4% |
| 2020 | 97.6% | 46.1% | 35.9% | 13.2% |
| 2021 | 97.2% | 49.0% | 33.1% | 22.0% |
| 2022 | 94.7% | 45.5% | 43.2% | 19.9% |
| 2023 | 96.9% | 52.0% | 40.2% | 18.0% |
| 2024 | 96.6% | 48.8% | 42.4% | 14.8% |
| 2025 | 95.2% | 41.8% | 40.7% | 14.0% |
The top line is three wide receivers, flat all decade. The lines below it are bigger lineups, and the one that moved is two tight ends. A tight end can block a defensive end on one snap and run a pass route down the middle on the next. Line up two of them and the defense has to guess. In 2016, defenses answered two tight ends with nickel fewer than three times in ten. That climbed to about half by 2023, then slid back to about four in ten in 2025, roughly its 2019 level.
Against two running backs, usually a fullback and a halfback, defenses went to nickel about one time in eight in 2016, a season with plays missing. By 2017 it was about one in four, and by 2025 about two in five. Defenses never pulled back against two backs the way they did against two tight ends. Against three tight ends, nickel peaked at about one time in five in 2021 and was about one in seven in 2025.
The two-tight-end line matters most for the retreat, because it is the second most common lineup, and offenses used it more often in 2025 than in 2023.
Offenses used bigger lineups
Three wide receivers were still the most common lineup in 2025. They were also rarer than in any of our ten seasons, down from about five plays in eight in 2023 to a little more than half.
Offenses lined up three wide receivers less in 2025 than in any of the ten seasons
Share of plays by the offense’s lineup.
Show data
| Year | Three wide receivers | Two tight ends | Two running backs | Three tight ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 58.6% | 17.5% | 7.1% | 2.9% |
| 2017 | 58.5% | 19.0% | 7.8% | 4.0% |
| 2018 | 62.6% | 16.8% | 7.5% | 3.4% |
| 2019 | 57.9% | 19.3% | 7.4% | 2.9% |
| 2020 | 58.2% | 19.0% | 7.8% | 3.5% |
| 2021 | 58.9% | 20.3% | 6.8% | 3.5% |
| 2022 | 61.7% | 18.6% | 7.9% | 3.9% |
| 2023 | 62.9% | 19.4% | 7.2% | 3.3% |
| 2024 | 61.7% | 22.1% | 6.2% | 3.5% |
| 2025 | 56.6% | 22.0% | 6.3% | 4.9% |
Three wide receivers is the top line, dipping at the right. Below it, the tight ends climbed. Two-tight-end sets went from a little over one play in six in 2016 to about one in five in 2025. Three tight ends, a rarity in 2016 at about one play in 35, got up to about one in 20. Two running backs held steady at about one play in 15.
Count every lineup with three or more wide receivers and the share fell from nearly two plays in three in 2016 to under three in five in 2025, also the lowest of the ten seasons. Most of that slide came in the last year: about five plays in eight in 2024, then under three in five. Of 32 offenses, 19 used three or more wide receivers less often than a year earlier. Rarer lineups grew too, more of them with a sixth offensive lineman in as an extra blocker. No offense spread out less than the Ravens, who lined up three or more wide receivers on fewer than one play in three.
| Offense | 3+ wide receivers | Plays |
|---|---|---|
| Ravens | 30.5% | 954 |
| Steelers | 39.2% | 971 |
| Dolphins | 43.1% | 938 |
| 49ers | 43.1% | 1059 |
| Seahawks | 44.8% | 994 |
| Texans | 71.2% | 1072 |
| Buccaneers | 70.6% | 1056 |
| Titans | 70.2% | 993 |
The Steelers, Dolphins, 49ers and Seahawks joined the Ravens near the bottom. Houston, Tampa Bay and Tennessee stayed spread out, with three or more wide receivers on about seven plays in ten.
The Ravens are the odd case. The team whose offense used the fewest three-receiver lineups had a defense in nickel on nearly nine plays in ten, the second-most in the league.
Fewer three-receiver lineups would take some nickel off the field even if no defense changed a thing.
Defenses used bigger players against the same offenses
But defenses changed too. About half the drop came with offenses using bigger lineups. About half came with defenses using bigger players against the same lineups.
Imagine every defense kept its 2023 habits, the same nickel rate against each lineup, and only the offenses changed. Nickel would still fall about four or five plays in every 100 by 2025. Now run it the other way. Hold the offenses where they were in 2023 and let the defenses change. That costs about four or five as well. Add the two and you have most of the drop of about nine. The sliver left over is both at once. Offenses added bigger lineups, two tight ends and extra linemen, in the same seasons defenses were using less nickel against exactly those lineups.
About half the drop came with offenses’ new lineups, about half with defenses’ bigger players
Plays in every 100 that nickel lost from 2023 to 2025, split by what changed.
Nickel fell 9.1 points. Counting the main lineups, offenses changing alone would have cut 3.6, defenses changing alone 4.7, and both at once 0.9.
The two middle bars, offense and defense, are about the same size. The change was broad, too. Of 32 defenses, 22 used less nickel in 2025 than in 2024. The data can't say why.
How you sort the rarer lineups nudges the split, so we counted three ways. Every one lands near half for each side, between about four and five plays in every 100.
However you count the lineups, each side gets about half
Plays in every 100 that nickel lost from 2023 to 2025, counted three ways.
Nickel fell 9.1 points. Depending on how rare groupings are sorted, the offensive mix accounts for 3.6–4.9 points and what defenses used against the same groupings for 3.6–4.7: about half each.
Count only the main lineups and the defense side comes out a little ahead. Sort out every mix of backs, tight ends, receivers and extra linemen, and the offense edges in front. Start the comparison from 2025 instead and both parts grow by the same sliver, so the order stays the same. With the lead depending on how the lineups are counted, half and half is the fair call.
The league number hides a wide spread. Some defenses cut their nickel by a third or more in a single season, and Seattle went the other way.
Detroit and Minnesota led the retreat. Seattle went the other way
Detroit went furthest. The Lions played nickel on more than four plays in five in 2018, under the old charting company. After three straight drops from 2022, they were at about one play in three in 2025, the fewest in the league. Minnesota made the biggest one-season drop of any defense in 2025, from about four plays in five in 2024 to a little over two in five in 2025.
Seattle traveled the other way. In 2019 it was the league's base-defense holdout. Pro Football Focus's Sam Monson wrote the next spring that Seattle "left base defense just 31.2% of the time." Our count, from the old charting company, has the Seahawks in nickel on under one play in three that season. By 2025, under Mike Macdonald, they kept a fifth defensive back out on more than nine plays in ten, the most in the league, while most defenses pulled back. NFL.com described one way they did it, with rookie safety Nick Emmanwori covering the slot receiver and also rushing the quarterback from near the line, before the Seahawks met the Patriots in Super Bowl LX.
Seattle rose to the most nickel as Detroit and Minnesota fell to among the least
Share of plays each defense faced with 5 or more defensive backs, 2016–2025, with the league line for comparison.
Show data
| Year | Seahawks | Lions | Vikings | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 67.7% | 74.9% | 72.6% | 68.7% |
| 2017 | 70.9% | 66.6% | 77.5% | 65.8% |
| 2018 | 68.2% | 84.2% | 77.5% | 74.2% |
| 2019 | 29.9% | 80.1% | 72.9% | 71.8% |
| 2020 | 61.4% | 80.0% | 63.9% | 74.6% |
| 2021 | 60.8% | 71.4% | 65.8% | 75.2% |
| 2022 | 73.0% | 79.3% | 81.8% | 73.4% |
| 2023 | 86.2% | 68.4% | 90.4% | 78.2% |
| 2024 | 80.2% | 55.2% | 81.9% | 75.6% |
| 2025 | 92.9% | 34.2% | 43.2% | 69.0% |
The dashed line is the league. Seattle climbed back after 2019 and passed it in 2023. Detroit dropped under it from 2023, and Minnesota fell through it in 2025.
| Defense | Nickel or dime | Plays |
|---|---|---|
| Lions | 34.2% | 1032 |
| Raiders* | 43.0% | 1049 |
| Vikings | 43.2% | 1016 |
| Cardinals | 57.9% | 1049 |
| Steelers | 60.9% | 1096 |
| Seahawks | 92.9% | 1056 |
| Ravens | 88.0% | 1072 |
| Bears | 85.5% | 1017 |
The Lions, Raiders and Vikings used the least nickel, though the Raiders’ figure is mostly the Jamal Adams label. Seattle, Baltimore and Chicago used the most.
| Defense | 2024 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | 81.9% | 43.2% | −38.7 |
| Raiders* | 72.8% | 43.0% | −29.8 |
Continues below
| Defense | 2024 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | 93.4% | 70.9% | −22.5 |
| Lions | 55.2% | 34.2% | −21.0 |
| Cardinals | 77.4% | 57.9% | −19.5 |
| Seahawks* | 80.2% | 92.9% | +12.7 |
| Colts | 68.6% | 81.0% | +12.4 |
| Rams | 63.1% | 74.8% | +11.7 |
Minnesota, Las Vegas, Washington, Detroit and Arizona fell furthest from 2024 to 2025. Seattle, Indianapolis and the Rams rose. On the starred rows, a rough count by weight tells a different story.
The retreat reached well past these tables. Line up all 32 defenses by how much their nickel changed from 2024 to 2025, and the one in the middle dropped about seven plays in every 100. Sort them by how much nickel they played instead, and the middle team went from about three plays in four in 2024 to a little over seven in ten in 2025. In 2025, 12 defenses were below the 2016 league rate. That comparison crosses the change in charting companies.
Our data starts in 2016, so it misses the nickel's earlier rise. This is two seasons of decline, most of it in 2025. Nothing here says why defenses used bigger players, or that Seattle's approach caused its season.
Base came back to its 2016 share
Dubin’s line from that April still describes the league. In 2025, five defensive backs were still out on about seven plays in ten.
The old base defense made a round trip. In 2016, the year Dubin wrote his column, defenses lined up in base, four or fewer defensive backs, on 31.3% of plays. By 2023 it was down to about one play in five. In 2025 it was 31.0%, about three plays in ten counted by position, back to its 2016 share.
How we measured it
- Plays: every regular-season scrimmage play (passes and runs, no two-point tries) from 2016 to 2025 with a full list of 11 tracked defenders in nflverse participation data: 323,832 plays. 4,308 plays without that list were dropped.
- Defensive backs are players listed CB, S, SS, FS, DB or SAF. Nickel = 5 or more (dime included), dime = 6 or more, base = 4 or fewer.
- Offensive groupings count running backs (fullbacks included), then tight ends: 11 = one back, one tight end, three receivers; 12 = one back, two tight ends; 13 = one back, three tight ends; 21 = two backs, one tight end. 3+ WR = three or more wide receivers.
- Close games: first and second down, quarters 1–3, win probability 20–80%, more than two minutes left in the half.
- Weight count: five or more defenders under 215 lb by season roster weight. Roster positions are season listings, so a player listed at safety counts as a defensive back wherever he lines up.
Splitting the drop: "offense" swaps in the 2025 offensive mix and keeps each grouping's 2023 nickel rate; "defense" keeps the 2023 mix and uses 2025 rates. Nickel fell 9.1 points from 2023 to 2025, on unrounded shares (the rounded 78.2% and 69.0% differ by 9.2). The offense part is 3.6 to 4.9 points and the defense part 3.6 to 4.7, across three ways of grouping personnel (six main groupings + other: offense 3.6, defense 4.7; every rb/te/wr count: offense 4.7, defense 3.7; every ol/rb/te/wr count: offense 4.9, defense 3.6). The other 0.7–0.9 points come from both changes happening together. Finer groupings give more of the change to the offense, because the catch-all "other" group shifted toward lineups with extra linemen.
Defense tools
Live Edgehalla tools on the same subject.
Show the work
- Tests written down
- Not in advance (exploratory)
- Results computed
Every regular-season scrimmage play from 2016 to 2025 with on-field personnel in nflverse participation data: 323,832 plays. 4,308 plays without a full list of 11 defenders were dropped. Descriptive only; no model and no holdout.
| Test | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Count defensive backs from each defender joined to the season roster, not the personnel string | 77.7% (2023) vs 68.9% (2025); the two methods agree on more than 99% of plays every season | Same |
| Count defenders under 215 lb instead of positions | 65.6% vs 55.3% | Same turn |
| Neutral early downs only (1st/2nd, Q1–3, win prob 20–80%) | 70.8% vs 59.5% | Same turn |
| Weeks 1–9 vs weeks 10+ of 2025 | 70.2% vs 67.9% (2023: 78.0% vs 78.3%) | Both halves lower |
More tests below
| Test | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Pass plays and run plays separately | Pass 85.5% → 79.3%; run 68.0% → 55.6% | Both lower |
| Compare 2024 with 2025 only (both FTN data) | 75.6% → 69.0%; 22 of 32 defenses lower | Not a source change |
| Fall from 2023 inside one data source | 78.2% → 75.6% → 69.0% (all FTN) | Not a source change |
Frequently asked questions
How often do NFL defenses play nickel?
On 69.0% of regular-season plays in 2025, counting dime (six defensive backs). That was down from 78.2% in 2023.
Is nickel the new base defense?
Yes, and it has been since at least 2016, when 68.7% of plays had five or more defensive backs. The old base defense (four or fewer) came back to 31.0% of plays in 2025, from 21.8% in 2023, about its 2016 share counted by position.
Why did NFL defenses play less nickel in 2025?
About half of the drop came with offenses using bigger lineups (more tight ends and extra linemen), and about half with defenses using bigger players against the same lineups. Against three wide receivers, nickel barely moved, at 95.2%. The data does not say why defenses made the change.
How often do NFL offenses use 11 personnel?
11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, three wide receivers) was on the field for 56.6% of plays in 2025, the lowest share from 2016 to 2025. Two-tight-end 12 personnel was 22.0%.
Which NFL defense plays the most base?
In 2025 it was the Lions. They had five or more defensive backs on only 34.2% of plays, so base on about 66%. The Seahawks were the opposite, with nickel or dime on 92.9%.
Is the drop in nickel real, or a change in the data?
The drop is real. The climb shows up in the old data alone, and the fall from 2023 to 2025 is charted by one data company in all three seasons. It also shows when defenders are counted by weight instead of position, in both halves of the season and in close games. How big the last step up was, in 2023, is uncertain, because the data company changed that year, and so is exactly how 2025 compares with 2016. Counted by listed weight instead of position, the league did not fall back to its 2016 level.
More in The long arc
Sources and method
- nflverse participation, play-by-play and rosters (CC-BY 4.0)
- NFL Next Gen Stats via nflverse: on-field personnel, 2016–2022 (CC-BY-SA 4.0)
- FTN Data via nflverse: on-field personnel, 2023–2025 (CC-BY-SA 4.0)
- Licence for the NFL Next Gen Stats and FTN Data used here: Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 (CC-BY-SA 4.0)
- CBS Sports (Jared Dubin, April 4, 2016): "Here's why the nickel defense is the new base defense in the NFL"
- PFF (Sam Monson, May 22, 2020): Seattle's base defense in 2019
- NFL.com (Kevin Patra, February 2026): Seahawks rookie Nick Emmanwori before Super Bowl LX
Research and analysis, not betting advice. Past results do not guarantee future returns; bet only what you can afford to lose.