How Football ChangedThe long arc
The Pass Revolution Ended Before You Noticed
NFL offenses have not dropped back more often than in 2015 overall. In 2025 the dropback rate was back at its 1999 level, and quarterbacks scrambled more than in any play-by-play season.
By Edgehalla ResearchPublished 7 min read
More takeaways below
- Scrambles nearly doubled, from about 2.9% of dropbacks in 2006–09 to 5.5% in 2025. Sacks barely moved.
- The real revolution came earlier. Pass plays rose from 42.3% of offensive plays in 1977 to 57.4% in 1995. Since 1999 PFR's figure has ranged from 54.9% to 59.3%, a new high in 2016.
On this page
Passing peaked in 2015 and has drifted back
The NFL is not passing more every year. In 2025, 60.1% of scrimmage plays were dropbacks. That is slightly below the 60.4% of 1999, the first season in nflverse play-by-play.
Share of NFL scrimmage plays that were dropbacks, 1999–2025
Regular season. Dropbacks = pass attempts + sacks + scrambles. Kneels, spikes and two-point tries excluded.
Show data
| Year | All scrimmage plays | Neutral game states |
|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 60.4% | 57.9% |
| 2000 | 59.3% | 57.5% |
| 2001 | 58.6% | 56.6% |
| 2002 | 59.6% | 57.8% |
| 2003 | 57.3% | 54.7% |
| 2004 | 57.6% | 55.5% |
| 2005 | 57.3% | 54.8% |
| 2006 | 57.1% | 54.9% |
| 2007 | 58.6% | 56.0% |
| 2008 | 57.7% | 55.9% |
| 2009 | 58.4% | 55.5% |
| 2010 | 59.4% | 57.0% |
| 2011 | 59.7% | 56.6% |
| 2012 | 60.3% | 57.8% |
| 2013 | 61.3% | 58.7% |
| 2014 | 61.0% | 58.2% |
| 2015 | 62.0% | 59.3% |
| 2016 | 61.9% | 58.8% |
| 2017 | 60.5% | 57.8% |
| 2018 | 61.9% | 58.9% |
| 2019 | 61.9% | 59.4% |
| 2020 | 61.4% | 58.7% |
| 2021 | 61.2% | 58.3% |
| 2022 | 60.1% | 57.2% |
| 2023 | 61.2% | 58.9% |
| 2024 | 60.3% | 57.5% |
| 2025 | 60.1% | 57.7% |
- The climb: 2006 to 2015
- 2006: Low: 57.1%
- 2015: Peak: 62.0%
- 2021: 17-game season
The rise was real but brief. Dropbacks bottomed at 57.1% in 2006, climbed over nine seasons to 62.0% in 2015, then hovered around 61% through 2023 before easing. Neutral game states, where the score does not force a choice, follow the same path a few points lower. They fell from 59.3% in 2015 to 57.7% in 2025.
The real revolution: 1978 to 1995
Play-by-play starts in 1999, so for earlier seasons we use league totals from Pro-Football-Reference. Those totals have no scramble flag, so this chart counts pass attempts and sacks against all offensive plays. Kneels and scrambles count as runs. On that measure the modern era looks small next to what came before.
Pass attempts and sacks as a share of NFL offensive plays, 1963–2025
Regular season. Kneels and scrambles count as runs here, so the modern line sits below the dropback rate above.
Show data
| Year | League totals (PFR) | Play-by-play |
|---|---|---|
| 1963 | 49.2% | – |
| 1964 | 49.8% | – |
| 1965 | 49.6% | – |
| 1966 | 50.7% | – |
| 1967 | 50.5% | – |
| 1968 | 48.1% | – |
| 1969 | 50.3% | – |
| 1970 | 48.3% | – |
| 1971 | 46.4% | – |
| 1972 | 44.4% | – |
| 1973 | 42.9% | – |
| 1974 | 45.5% | – |
| 1975 | 45.2% | – |
| 1976 | 43.8% | – |
| 1977 | 42.3% | – |
| 1978 | 44.4% | – |
| 1979 | 48.0% | – |
| 1980 | 50.6% | – |
| 1981 | 51.2% | – |
| 1982 | 52.6% | – |
| 1983 | 51.8% | – |
| 1984 | 53.1% | – |
| 1985 | 53.6% | – |
| 1986 | 53.7% | – |
| 1987 | 52.5% | – |
| 1988 | 52.8% | – |
| 1989 | 54.2% | – |
| 1990 | 54.0% | – |
| 1991 | 54.9% | – |
| 1992 | 54.2% | – |
| 1993 | 54.9% | – |
| 1994 | 56.0% | – |
| 1995 | 57.4% | – |
| 1996 | 55.7% | – |
| 1997 | 55.5% | – |
| 1998 | 55.2% | – |
| 1999 | – | 57.5% |
| 2000 | – | 56.3% |
| 2001 | – | 56.0% |
| 2002 | – | 57.1% |
| 2003 | – | 55.2% |
| 2004 | – | 55.4% |
| 2005 | – | 55.6% |
| 2006 | – | 55.4% |
| 2007 | – | 56.9% |
| 2008 | – | 56.0% |
| 2009 | – | 56.8% |
| 2010 | – | 57.4% |
| 2011 | – | 57.5% |
| 2012 | – | 58.2% |
| 2013 | – | 59.0% |
| 2014 | – | 58.8% |
| 2015 | – | 59.8% |
| 2016 | – | 59.9% |
| 2017 | – | 58.3% |
| 2018 | – | 59.5% |
| 2019 | – | 59.5% |
| 2020 | – | 58.8% |
| 2021 | – | 58.5% |
| 2022 | – | 57.4% |
| 2023 | – | 58.1% |
| 2024 | – | 57.2% |
| 2025 | – | 56.8% |
- The real revolution: 1977 to 1995
- 1970: AFL–NFL merger
- 1978: 1978 rule changes
In 1977, pass attempts and sacks were 42.3% of offensive plays. The next season the league limited contact with receivers past five yards and let blockers extend their arms. It rose in 14 of the 18 seasons from 1978 to 1995, to 53.6% in 1985 and 57.4% in 1995. That is a 15.1-point swing in 18 seasons.
The climb was not the first change. Passing had already fallen from 50.3% in 1969 to 42.3% in 1977. The 1970 merger also changed which teams the totals cover. On the play-by-play version (kneels excluded), the same measure has stayed between 55.2% and 59.9% since 1999. PFR's own count first passed the 1995 mark in 2012 and peaked at 59.3% in 2016. The pass revolution happened, but it was mostly over before play-by-play began.
Fewer passes per game, not more runs
Pass attempts, designed runs and scrambles per team-game
Regular season. Pass attempts exclude sacks and scrambles.
plays
Show data
| Year | Pass attempts | Designed runs | Sacks + scrambles |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 33.2 plays | 24.6 plays | 4.3 plays |
| 2000 | 32.5 plays | 25.2 plays | 4.3 plays |
| 2001 | 32.6 plays | 25.9 plays | 4.0 plays |
| 2002 | 33.8 plays | 25.5 plays | 3.9 plays |
| 2003 | 32.1 plays | 26.5 plays | 3.4 plays |
| 2004 | 31.8 plays | 26.1 plays | 3.7 plays |
| 2005 | 32.0 plays | 26.3 plays | 3.3 plays |
| 2006 | 31.8 plays | 26.4 plays | 3.3 plays |
| 2007 | 33.1 plays | 25.6 plays | 3.1 plays |
| 2008 | 32.1 plays | 25.8 plays | 3.1 plays |
| 2009 | 33.1 plays | 25.8 plays | 3.1 plays |
| 2010 | 33.6 plays | 25.3 plays | 3.5 plays |
| 2011 | 33.8 plays | 25.3 plays | 3.7 plays |
| 2012 | 34.6 plays | 25.2 plays | 3.6 plays |
| 2013 | 35.3 plays | 24.8 plays | 4.0 plays |
| 2014 | 34.8 plays | 24.6 plays | 3.8 plays |
| 2015 | 35.7 plays | 24.1 plays | 3.7 plays |
| 2016 | 35.6 plays | 24.0 plays | 3.5 plays |
| 2017 | 34.1 plays | 24.7 plays | 3.8 plays |
| 2018 | 34.4 plays | 23.6 plays | 4.1 plays |
| 2019 | 34.7 plays | 23.8 plays | 4.0 plays |
| 2020 | 35.0 plays | 24.4 plays | 3.9 plays |
| 2021 | 34.3 plays | 24.2 plays | 4.0 plays |
| 2022 | 33.2 plays | 24.8 plays | 4.1 plays |
| 2023 | 33.6 plays | 24.2 plays | 4.5 plays |
| 2024 | 32.6 plays | 24.3 plays | 4.4 plays |
| 2025 | 31.9 plays | 24.0 plays | 4.4 plays |
- 2015: Peak: 35.6 attempts
Teams threw 31.9 pass attempts per game in 2025. That is 3.7 fewer than in 2015, and the fewest since 2006. The 2003–05 average was 32.0.
Designed runs did not take up the slack: 24.0 a game in 2025 against 24.6 in 1999. The bigger change is fewer snaps. Teams ran 60.3 scrimmage plays per game in 2025, the fewest of any season since 1999. Our punting story looks at the drives that disappeared.
On neutral early downs, passing just levelled off
Early-down dropback rate in neutral game states
1st and 2nd down, quarters 1–3, win probability 20–80%, more than two minutes left in the half.
Show data
| Year | Neutral early downs |
|---|---|
| 1999 | 50.1% |
| 2000 | 49.3% |
| 2001 | 48.7% |
| 2002 | 50.7% |
| 2003 | 46.9% |
| 2004 | 47.7% |
| 2005 | 46.6% |
| 2006 | 46.8% |
| 2007 | 48.4% |
| 2008 | 48.6% |
| 2009 | 47.6% |
| 2010 | 48.7% |
| 2011 | 48.3% |
| 2012 | 50.0% |
| 2013 | 50.3% |
| 2014 | 50.5% |
| 2015 | 50.7% |
| 2016 | 50.9% |
| 2017 | 49.7% |
| 2018 | 51.8% |
| 2019 | 51.8% |
| 2020 | 52.3% |
| 2021 | 51.8% |
| 2022 | 50.7% |
| 2023 | 52.2% |
| 2024 | 50.9% |
| 2025 | 51.3% |
- 2020: Peak: 52.3%
Strip out late-game chasing and third-down obligation, and the picture changes. On 1st and 2nd down in close games, teams dropped back 51.3% of the time in 2025, above 50.1% in 1999.
So the slide since 2015 is not about game states. In neutral games, across all downs, the rate still fell from 59.3% to 57.7%. On early downs before the fourth quarter, coaches have stopped adding passes. The drop sits on later downs and late in games.
The scramble is the part that grew
What happens on a dropback: sack and scramble share
Share of dropbacks. The rest (88–91%) are pass attempts. Scrambles before 2006 use different coding (dashed).
Show data
| Year | Sacks | Scrambles, pre-2006 | Scrambles |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 6.6% | 4.8% | – |
| 2000 | 6.6% | 5.1% | – |
| 2001 | 6.6% | 4.4% | – |
| 2002 | 6.1% | 4.3% | – |
| 2003 | 6.0% | 3.6% | – |
| 2004 | 6.6% | 3.9% | – |
| 2005 | 6.5% | 2.9% | – |
| 2006 | 6.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| 2007 | 5.9% | – | 2.7% |
| 2008 | 5.8% | – | 3.0% |
| 2009 | 5.9% | – | 2.7% |
| 2010 | 5.9% | – | 3.4% |
| 2011 | 6.2% | – | 3.8% |
| 2012 | 6.0% | – | 3.5% |
| 2013 | 6.4% | – | 3.8% |
| 2014 | 6.1% | – | 3.6% |
| 2015 | 5.9% | – | 3.6% |
| 2016 | 5.6% | – | 3.3% |
| 2017 | 6.2% | – | 3.8% |
| 2018 | 6.5% | – | 4.0% |
| 2019 | 6.4% | – | 4.0% |
| 2020 | 5.7% | – | 4.3% |
| 2021 | 6.0% | – | 4.4% |
| 2022 | 6.4% | – | 4.5% |
| 2023 | 6.8% | – | 5.0% |
| 2024 | 6.5% | – | 5.3% |
| 2025 | 6.5% | – | 5.5% |
- 2006: Scramble flag matches play text
Sacks have been remarkably stable: 6.6% of dropbacks in 1999, 6.5% in 2025. Scrambles are the moving piece. They rose in eight of the nine seasons after 2016 and reached 5.5%, the highest in the data.
Real passes, attempts that leave the hand, fell to 88.0% of dropbacks in 2025, the lowest share of any season. Part of the "decline" in passing is quarterbacks taking off.
A warning about early scramble data
Flagged scrambles whose play text says "scrambles"
Share of nflverse qb_scramble plays by season, 1999–2007.
From 2006 every flagged scramble says so in the official play text; before that the match ranges from 0% to 67%, so the early scramble series is not comparable.
The headline holds without scrambles. Counting only pass attempts and sacks, the 2025 rate was 56.8% of plays against 57.5% in 1999.
The teams at the edges
| Team-season | Passer | Neutral dropback rate | Points vs league | Neutral plays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 Raiders | R.Gannon | 71.9% | +14.1 | 491 |
| 2022 Bengals | J.Burrow | 69.4% | +12.2 | 533 |
| 2024 Bengals | J.Burrow | 69.3% | +11.8 | 649 |
| 2021 Bills | J.Allen | 69.8% | +11.5 | 527 |
| 2011 Broncos | T.Tebow | 40.0% | -16.6 | 630 |
| 2012 Chiefs | M.Cassel | 44.5% | -13.4 | 580 |
| 2020 Patriots | C.Newton | 46.3% | -12.3 | 531 |
| 2018 Seahawks | R.Wilson | 46.8% | -12.1 | 648 |
| 2025 Cardinals | J.Brissett | 65.7% | +8.0 | 516 |
| 2025 Jets | J.Fields | 48.5% | -9.1 | 441 |
| 2025 Ravens | L.Jackson | 50.5% | -7.1 | 550 |
The pass-heaviest neutral offense in the data is the 2002 Raiders with R.Gannon: 71.9%, 14.1 points above the league. The run-heaviest is the 2011 Broncos with T.Tebow, at 40.0%.
The most and least pass-happy teams still sit 14–27 points apart every season. In 2025 the Jets and Ravens leaned hardest on the run; the Cardinals passed the most.
How sure is the 2025 number?
What is solid: the overall dropback rate has not topped its 2015 peak. On neutral early downs it rose until about 2020 and has been flat since. Pass attempts per game are clearly down, and scrambles are clearly up.
Show the work
- Tests written down
- Not in advance (exploratory)
- Results computed
Every regular-season scrimmage play from 1999 to 2025 in nflverse play-by-play: 867,908 plays, 519,753 dropbacks, 6,964 games, 861 team-seasons. Seasons 1963–1998 use 36 league-total rows hand-copied from Pro-Football-Reference. Descriptive only; no model and no holdout.
| Test | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Include snaps erased by penalty (no_play) that nflverse marks as pass or run | 61.0% (1999) vs 60.9% (2025) | 2025 still lower |
| Drop scrambles (pass attempts + sacks only) | 57.5% vs 56.8% | 2025 lower |
| Weeks 1–9 only | 59.6% vs 61.3% | Reverses: 2025 higher |
| Weeks 10 and later only | 61.1% vs 59.0% | 2025 lower |
| Neutral early downs (1st/2nd, Q1–3, win prob 20–80%) | 50.1% vs 51.3%; peak 52.3% in 2020 | Reverses: plateau, not decline |
| Peak season without 2020 (no crowds) | 2015 at 62.0% | Unchanged |
Frequently asked questions
Do NFL teams pass more than they used to?
Not since 2015. Dropbacks made up 62.0% of scrimmage plays in 2015 and 60.1% in 2025, about the same as the 60.4% of 1999.
When did the NFL become a passing league?
Mostly between 1978 and 1995. Pass attempts and sacks rose from 42.3% of offensive plays in 1977 to 57.4% in 1995, using Pro-Football-Reference league totals. On PFR's count it has stayed between 54.9% and 59.3% since 1999, with a new high in 2016.
What counts as a pass play here?
A dropback: a pass attempt, a sack or a quarterback scramble. Designed runs are every other scrimmage play. Kneels, spikes, two-point tries and plays erased by penalties are left out.
What is a neutral situation?
A snap where the offense has a 20–80% chance to win and more than two minutes remain in the half. The stricter version also requires 1st or 2nd down in the first three quarters.
Are scrambles really up?
Yes, from 2006 on, where the coding is reliable. Scrambles were 2.7% of dropbacks in 2009 and 5.5% in 2025. Scramble flags before 2006 do not match the official play text, so we do not compare against them.
Sources and method
- nflverse play-by-play, rosters, combine and schedules (CC-BY 4.0)
- Pro-Football-Reference: NFL season-by-season team offense (league totals, 1963–1998)
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