Edgehalla

How Football ChangedEndangered roles

The Backfield Committee's Peak Was Brief

Lead backs lost share from 2002 to about 2015, held near 58% through 2019, then dipped sharply in 2020–21. Since 2022 they are back at the 2010s level, and catch more passes than ever. Here is who led it, and how much is the 17th game.

Verdict: Data story

By Edgehalla ResearchPublished 7 min read

More takeaways below

  • A new high: the lead back drew 51.6%–53.3% of his team's RB targets in 2023–25. No season before 2023 topped 49.2%.
  • Part of the 300-carry rebound is the 17th game. 6 backs reached 300 in 2024, but only 2 matched the old 16-game pace.
On this page

A slow decline, a short dip, a quick return

In 2002 the average NFL team gave its lead back 69.6% of the carries that went to running backs. By 2021 that was down to 53.6%, the lowest in our data. Since 2022 it has held near 59.9%. But 2019 was already 60.3%, so this is a rebound from a two-year dip.

Lead back's share of his team's running-back carries

League mean, regular season, 1999–2025. Band: middle half of teams

Show data
The lead back's share fell from 69.6% in 2002 to 53.6% in 2021, then rose back to about 59.9%, the 2010s level.
YearTop back's share of team RB carries (league mean)Top back's share of team RB carries (league mean) (range)
199962.7%49.4% to 73.6%
200068.6%56.6% to 82.7%
200165.6%52.9% to 81.6%
200269.6%55.5% to 79.9%
200364.5%47.8% to 78.9%
200463.5%54.4% to 75.7%
200563.7%51.6% to 77.1%
200666.6%56.4% to 77.3%
200760.2%49.7% to 71.4%
200860.0%46.6% to 75.4%
200958.8%48.2% to 66.1%
201061.5%50.4% to 74.8%
201156.9%46.2% to 68.8%
201261.3%51.0% to 72.5%
201359.6%46.4% to 70.9%
201457.0%47.6% to 65.9%
201556.3%47.6% to 65.0%
201658.7%47.6% to 71.4%
201756.9%48.0% to 67.8%
201857.6%47.1% to 70.8%
201960.3%47.9% to 72.0%
202054.7%44.8% to 59.1%
202153.6%45.2% to 60.6%
202258.8%50.1% to 67.6%
202360.1%51.9% to 67.7%
202460.8%52.3% to 68.9%
202560.2%48.5% to 72.2%
  • Trough: 2020 to 2021
  • 2021: Low point, 2021
Lead back = most RB carries on his team. RB = listed at RB or FB on that season's nflverse roster. QB runs, kneels and receiver jet sweeps are left out. n 861 team-seasons.

Shares beat raw counts here. The season grew from 16 games to 17 in 2021, which adds carries without changing how teams split them.

Teams with a true lead back

Teams whose lead back had 60%+ of RB carries

Count of teams, regular season (31 teams 1999–2001, 32 since)

Show data
The number of teams with a 60% back fell from 23 in 2002 to 7 in 2020, then climbed back to 18 in 2024.
Year60%+ teams
199917 teams
200022 teams
200119 teams
200223 teams
200320 teams
200420 teams
200518 teams
200621 teams
200715 teams
200817 teams
200916 teams
201015 teams
201115 teams
201216 teams
201314 teams
201411 teams
201511 teams
201616 teams
201712 teams
201811 teams
201918 teams
20207 teams
20219 teams
202214 teams
202317 teams
202418 teams
202517 teams
  • 2020: 7 teams

In 2002, 23 of 32 teams leaned on one back for at least 60% of their running-back carries. In 2020 only 7 did. By 2024 the count was back to 18, and 17 in 2025.

The 2021 low point still had real bellcows. Pittsburgh gave rookie Najee Harris 85.5% of its running-back carries. They were just rarer.

The 300-carry back, and the 17th game

300-carry backs per season

Backs with 300+ regular-season carries, and backs at the old 16-game pace

Show data
300-carry backs fell from 13 in 2003 to one a year in 2015–18; the 2024 rebound to 6 shrinks to 2 at the 16-game pace.
Year300+ carries16-game pace
19996 backs6 backs
20008 backs8 backs
200110 backs10 backs
20029 backs9 backs
200313 backs13 backs
20049 backs9 backs
200510 backs10 backs
200610 backs10 backs
20076 backs6 backs
20085 backs5 backs
20096 backs6 backs
20107 backs7 backs
20112 backs2 backs
20125 backs5 backs
20132 backs2 backs
20142 backs2 backs
20151 backs1 backs
20161 backs1 backs
20171 backs1 backs
20181 backs1 backs
20192 backs2 backs
20202 backs2 backs
20212 backs1 backs
20223 backs2 backs
20230 backs0 backs
20246 backs2 backs
20254 backs1 backs
  • 2021: 17 games
16-game pace = 18.75 carries per team game: 300 over 16 games, 319 over 17. Carries from play-by-play, all teams combined.

In 2003, 13 backs carried 300 times or more, led by Ricky Williams (392). From 2015 to 2018 there was exactly one a year. In 2024 there were 6, led by Saquon Barkley (345) and Derrick Henry (325).

The backs who led the rebound

Biggest rises in lead-back share, 2021 to 2025

Lead back's share of team RB carries; label = 2025 lead back

Show data
The teams that moved most toward one back went from lead-back shares of 35–63% in 2021 to 60–87% in 2025.
20212025Change
PHI (Saquon Barkley)35.0%76.9%+41.9 pts
BAL (Derrick Henry)41.2%78.3%+37.1 pts
TEN (Tony Pollard)45.4%73.8%+28.4 pts
NYJ (Breece Hall)45.1%73.0%+27.9 pts
LV (Ashton Jeanty)62.5%86.6%+24.1 pts
ATL (Bijan Robinson)43.5%65.4%+21.9 pts
DET (Jahmyr Gibbs)38.7%59.9%+21.2 pts
SF (Christian McCaffrey)58.1%76.8%+18.7 pts
Carries by players listed at WR or TE are left out, so Deebo Samuel Sr.'s 59 carries for SF in 2021 do not count. That raises the 2021 SF share.

In 2025, Indianapolis gave Jonathan Taylor 86.6% of its running-back carries (322 carries). Las Vegas gave rookie Ashton Jeanty 86.6%.

In 2024, Derrick Henry took 81.9% of Baltimore's running-back carries and Saquon Barkley took 76.2% of Philadelphia's. Both teams went from a split to one lead back.

The lead back catches the passes too

Lead back's share of RB targets and RB touches

League mean; 2003–2008 left out (missing receiver data)

Show data
The lead back's share of RB targets jumped from about 43.2% in 2021 to at least 51.6% in each of 2023–25, so the third-down specialist is losing work too.
YearShare of RB targetsShare of RB touches
199937.9%57.0%
200047.7%64.2%
200140.3%60.3%
200249.2%64.5%
2003––
2004––
2005––
2006––
2007––
2008––
200942.1%55.6%
201046.2%58.5%
201138.9%53.7%
201243.8%57.6%
201343.8%56.6%
201444.1%54.0%
201534.3%51.0%
201644.7%55.6%
201737.0%52.3%
201838.7%53.4%
201943.8%56.6%
202044.5%52.4%
202143.2%51.9%
202244.7%55.9%
202351.6%58.2%
202453.3%59.6%
202552.1%58.8%
Touches = carries + targets to running backs. Lead back for targets = the most-carries back. 2003–2008 play-by-play lacks a receiver on about 40% of passes.

For fantasy players this matters most. In 2021 the lead back drew 43.2% of his team's running-back targets. In 2024 he drew 53.3%. Each season from 2023 to 2025 beat the old high of 49.2% (2002). Unlike the carry share, this is new. The pass-catching specialist is the one losing work.

There are fewer passes to backs overall, though. Teams threw 6.5 times a game to running backs in 2021 and 5.4 in 2024. The lead back has a bigger slice of a smaller pie.

Healthier, or busier?

Lead back's share, all games vs games he played

League mean, regular season

Show data
In games the lead back played, his share fell less (from 73.7% in 2002 to 63.4% in 2021) and recovered less, to 66.6% in 2024.
YearAll team gamesGames he played
199962.7%70.1%
200068.6%72.9%
200165.6%72.3%
200269.6%73.7%
200364.5%70.3%
200463.5%72.7%
200563.7%71.8%
200666.6%72.2%
200760.2%69.3%
200860.0%65.6%
200958.8%64.5%
201061.5%66.5%
201156.9%65.2%
201261.3%67.5%
201359.6%66.2%
201457.0%61.7%
201556.3%64.2%
201658.7%65.7%
201756.9%64.7%
201857.6%64.5%
201960.3%68.0%
202054.7%62.8%
202153.6%63.4%
202258.8%65.0%
202360.1%66.2%
202460.8%66.6%
202560.2%65.4%
Games he played = games with at least one carry. The gap between the lines is work lost to missed games.

Some of the swing is availability. In 2021 lead backs lost about 10 points of share to games they missed; in 2024, about 6. In the games they played, the rebound was 63.4% to 66.6%.

How we counted

  • Carries are regular-season run plays in nflverse play-by-play, minus QB kneels, two-point tries and aborted snaps. Plays erased by penalty are not counted.
  • Running backs are players listed at RB or FB on that season's nflverse roster. QB runs and receiver jet sweeps drop out by position.
  • Lead back is the back with the most RB carries for that team that season. A traded back counts separately for each team.
  • Targets are non-sack passes with a named receiver. 2003–2008 files miss the receiver on about 40% of passes, so target charts skip those years.
  • Position limits. Carries by players listed at WR or TE drop out, such as Deebo Samuel Sr. (59 in 2021) and Taysom Hill (95 as a TE in 2022). That raises a few team shares.
  • Era tests pool team-seasons and treat them as independent, which makes the intervals a little too narrow.

Show the work

Tests written down
Not in advance (exploratory)
Results computed

nflverse play-by-play, regular season, 1999–2025: 861 team-seasons. Positions from each season's nflverse roster. Descriptive history; no holdout because nothing is being predicted.

Every test we graded
TestResultVerdict
Lead-back share 0.695 (2002) to 0.537 (2021) to 0.608 (2024)0.696, 0.536, 0.608Held
Teams with a 60%+ back: 23, 7, 1823 (2002), 7 (2020), 18 (2024)Held
300-carry backs: 13 (2003), 1 a year 2015–18, 6 (2024)13, 1, 6; at 16-game pace 2024 = 2Held; pace version much smaller
Rebound is more than chance2020–21 54.2% vs 2022–25 59.9%: +5.8 pts, 95% CI 1.8 to 9.7, z = 2.85Held
Recent level beats 2016–1958.4% vs 59.9%: +1.6 pts, CI -1.8 to 5.0, z = 0.9No: noise
Rebound beats the 2010s2022–25 59.9% vs 2010–19 58.6%: +1.3 pts, CI -1.3 to 4.0, z = 0.97No: a return to normal
Lead-back RB target share is a new high2023–25 51.6%–53.3%; earlier max 49.2% (2002)Held
Rebound holds in games the lead back played63.4% (2021) to 66.6% (2024)Partly: about half is availability

Frequently asked questions

Are workhorse running backs coming back in the NFL?

They are back to the 2010s level. The lead back's share of RB carries dipped to 53.6% in 2021 and has been about 59.9% since 2022, level with 2016–19 (58.4%). It is not back to the 65.6% of 1999–2006.

When did running back by committee peak?

Briefly, in 2020 and 2021. Only 7 teams had a back with 60% of their RB carries in 2020, and the average lead-back share hit its low of 53.6% in 2021.

How many running backs had 300 carries in 2024?

6, the most since 2010 (7). Only 2 of them matched the old 16-game pace of 18.75 carries per game, because 2024 had 17 games.

Do lead backs catch more passes now?

They get more of the backfield's targets than ever: 53.3% in 2024 against 43.2% in 2021. But teams throw to backs less, 5.4 times a game in 2024.

Keep reading

Sources and method

  1. nflverse play-by-play, rosters, combine and schedules (CC-BY 4.0)

Research and analysis, not betting advice. Past results do not guarantee future returns; bet only what you can afford to lose.