Edgehalla

How Football ChangedThe market remembers

Home field over 100 years, and the line that kept up

NFL home teams win less often than they used to. The betting line noticed, shrank its home edge, and stayed level with the results.

Verdict: Data story

By Edgehalla ResearchPublished 7 min read

More takeaways below

  • 2019 was already weak (-0.1 points a game at home), and the spread's home edge was already falling (1.8 points).
  • The 1920s look highest (67.4%, +7.2 points), but 1920s hosts were usually the stronger side.
On this page

A century of home wins

Home teams won 57.7% of NFL regular-season games from the 1970 merger to 2018. Since 2019 that has dropped to 53.2%, level with 1962–68 (53.2%) as the weakest seven-season stretch on record.

NFL home win %, regular season, 1920–2025

Ties count as half a win; neutral-site games excluded

Show data
Home teams won between about 54% and 60% of games for most of the century, then fell to 53.2% from 2019 to 2025.
YearEach seasonFive-season average
192068.3%–
192168.9%–
192275.0%–
192368.8%–
192470.6%70.3%
192579.3%72.5%
192658.6%70.5%
192763.9%68.2%
192858.9%66.3%
192958.6%63.9%
193063.7%60.7%
193167.0%62.4%
193256.3%60.9%
193362.3%61.6%
193451.7%60.2%
193550.9%57.6%
193657.4%55.7%
193748.2%54.1%
193851.8%52.0%
193962.7%54.2%
194065.5%57.1%
194156.4%56.9%
194250.0%57.3%
194361.3%59.2%
194457.0%58.0%
194563.0%57.5%
194653.6%57.0%
194759.5%58.9%
194854.7%57.6%
194952.5%56.7%
195057.7%55.6%
195149.3%54.7%
195250.0%52.8%
195354.9%52.9%
195461.1%54.6%
195564.6%56.0%
195659.7%58.1%
195756.3%59.3%
195860.4%60.4%
195953.5%58.9%
196054.5%56.9%
196155.2%56.0%
196251.0%54.9%
196357.8%54.4%
196454.9%54.7%
196551.6%54.1%
196656.9%54.4%
196754.0%55.0%
196847.0%52.9%
196960.4%54.0%
197058.0%55.2%
197157.1%55.3%
197250.8%54.7%
197361.8%57.6%
197454.7%56.5%
197555.5%56.0%
197657.4%56.0%
197757.7%57.4%
197858.3%56.7%
197958.9%57.5%
198054.7%57.4%
198162.3%58.4%
198254.4%57.7%
198353.4%56.7%
198457.8%56.5%
198564.3%58.4%
198653.1%56.6%
198754.5%56.6%
198858.7%57.7%
198957.4%57.6%
199058.5%56.4%
199158.9%57.6%
199260.7%58.8%
199354.9%58.1%
199457.1%58.0%
199560.0%58.3%
199662.1%59.0%
199760.8%59.0%
199862.9%60.6%
199959.7%61.1%
200055.7%60.2%
200154.8%58.8%
200258.0%58.2%
200361.6%58.0%
200456.6%57.3%
200558.8%58.0%
200653.1%57.6%
200757.7%57.6%
200857.3%56.7%
200957.3%56.8%
201055.9%56.2%
201156.9%57.0%
201257.5%57.0%
201360.3%57.6%
201457.3%57.6%
201553.8%57.1%
201657.7%57.3%
201757.0%57.2%
201860.5%57.3%
201952.0%56.2%
202050.4%55.5%
202151.1%54.2%
202256.6%54.1%
202355.8%53.2%
202452.4%53.3%
202553.8%53.9%
  • 1970: AFL–NFL merger
  • 2020: No fans (2020)
  • Reference: Even (50.0%)
FiveThirtyEight game file to 1998 (includes AAFC 1946–49 and AFL 1960–69), nflverse from 1999. n 10,612 (1920–98) and 6,901 (1999–2025) games. 2026 is partial and left out.

Single seasons are noisy. One season is about 250 games, so a home win rate moves by roughly three points from luck alone. The five-season line is the one to read.

Decade by decade

Home win % by decade

Regular season, neutral sites excluded

The 1920s peak of 67.4% gave way to a long plateau near 57%, and the 2020s so far sit at 53.4%.

1920sn 816, margin +7.2
67.4%
1930sn 569, margin +2.5
57.5%
1940sn 750, margin +2.2
56.6%
1950sn 726, margin +3.1
56.8%
1960sn 1,611, margin +2.0
54.3%
1970sn 1,932, margin +3.0
57.1%
1980sn 2,128, margin +2.6
57.2%
1990sn 2,328, margin +2.9
59.6%
2000sn 2,538, margin +2.5
57.1%
2010sn 2,529, margin +2.3
56.9%
2020sn 1,586, margin +1.8
53.4%
The 2020s cover 2020–2025. FiveThirtyEight to the 1990s, nflverse from the 2000s.

In the 1920s home teams outscored visitors by 7.2 points a game. Schedules were unbalanced: travelling teams that rarely hosted were often weak, so the 1920s figure overstates home field itself. Before kickoff, 1920s home teams were rated +36 Elo points above visitors (+1 in the 1960s), and 48 team-seasons played at most a third of their games at home. From the 1930s to the 2010s the edge held between about 2 and 3 points.

Playoffs are left out. Playoff home teams won 66.7% from 1920 to 2020 (n 535), but the better seed hosts, so that mixes home field with team quality.

The spread shrank its home edge

Every team plays about as many home games as road games. So across a season, team quality cancels out of the average spread. What is left is the home edge the market prices in.

Actual home margin vs the home edge in the spread

Points per game, regular season, 1999–2025

Show data
The spread's home edge fell from about 2.5 points to 1.6, tracking the actual home margin as it fell.
YearActual home marginPriced home edge
19993.1 pts2.4 pts
20002.8 pts2.6 pts
20012.0 pts2.3 pts
20022.3 pts2.2 pts
20033.6 pts2.5 pts
20042.5 pts2.5 pts
20053.6 pts2.5 pts
20060.9 pts2.9 pts
20072.9 pts2.5 pts
20082.6 pts2.7 pts
20092.3 pts2.6 pts
20102.0 pts2.4 pts
20113.3 pts2.5 pts
20122.6 pts2.4 pts
20133.3 pts2.6 pts
20142.5 pts2.4 pts
20151.5 pts2.2 pts
20162.6 pts2.2 pts
20172.5 pts2.1 pts
20182.3 pts2.4 pts
2019−0.1 pts1.8 pts
20200.1 pts1.1 pts
20211.6 pts1.7 pts
20222.1 pts1.7 pts
20232.7 pts1.7 pts
20241.7 pts1.5 pts
20252.2 pts1.6 pts
  • 2020: No fans
Mean nflverse spread_line (positive = home favoured) over 6,901 non-neutral games. A season's actual margin has a standard error near 0.9 points.

From 1999 to 2018 the spread gave home teams 2.4 points. Home teams actually won by 2.6. In 2021–25 the spread gave 1.6, and home teams won by 2.1.

A fit with a separate strength for every team in every season gives the same answer. For 2025 it puts the priced home edge at 1.5 points, against 1.6 from the simple average.

Home teams against the spread

Home team cover rate by era

Regular season, pushes excluded

Home teams covered just under half the time in every era, never near the 52.4% needed to profit at −110.

1999–2008n 2,456, 95% CI 47.1–51.0%
49.1%
2009–2018n 2,462, 95% CI 47.2–51.1%
49.1%
2019–2020n 494, 95% CI 42.2–51.0%
46.6%
2021–2025n 1,300, 95% CI 46.6–52.0%
49.3%
All, 1999–2025n 6,712, 95% CI 47.8–50.1%
49.0%
Wilson 95% intervals. Betting lines from nflverse.

Home teams covered 49.3% in 2021–25 (641 of 1,300). Across all 27 seasons they covered 49.0%. Covers ran just under 50% even though average home margins slightly beat the line. The 2019–20 bar (46.6%, road 53.4%) is noise: its 95% range of 42.2–51.0% includes 50%.

2020: empty stadiums, after an already weak 2019

Home teams around the no-fans season

Home teams were outscored in 2019, broke even in 2020 and recovered only part of the old edge after fans returned.

2019 home margin-0.1 pts
52.0% wins, n 251
2020 home win %50.4%
margin +0.1, n 253
2020 spread home edge1.1 pts
lowest in the data (1999 on)
2021–25 home win %53.9%
n 1,333

In 2020 most games had no fans. Home teams won 50.4% and outscored visitors by 0.1 points. Bookmakers cut the home edge to 1.1 points, and home teams covered 49.8%.

It is often said that 2020 was the first season since the merger in which road teams won more. That depends on three games. The FiveThirtyEight file counts San Francisco's three Arizona "home" games as home games, giving 49.8%. The nflverse file marks them neutral, giving 50.4%.

The bigger surprise is 2019. With full stadiums, home teams were outscored (-0.1 points) for the first time since 1968. One season is noisy (standard error 0.9 points). But the priced home edge also fell, from 2.4 points in 1999–2018 to 1.8 in 2019. Fans may not explain the whole decline.

Domes and time zones

Regular season, 1999–2025, non-neutral games. Cover rate excludes pushes.
GroupGamesHome win %Home marginHome cover %
Outdoors5,04956.6%+2.448.9%
Dome1,13956.4%+2.450.2%
Retractable, closed58553.7%+1.347.7%
Retractable, open12854.7%+1.846.8%
Same time zone2,80455.2%+2.148.3%
One zone apart2,46556.8%+2.349.4%
Two zones apart89159.4%+3.550.8%
Three zones apart74154.4%+1.547.9%

Dome home teams won about as often as outdoor ones (56.4% vs 56.6%). Visitors from two time zones away fared worst, but visitors from three zones away fared better than that. A real travel effect should grow with distance. Denver's altitude could lift the two-zone group, but Denver and Arizona host only 186 of its 891 games; Pacific–Central games won 59.6% on their own. Arizona is counted as Mountain time, though for most of the season its clocks match the Pacific zone.

How we measured it

  • Home win % is home wins plus half of ties, divided by games. Neutral-site games (Super Bowls, London, Mexico City, Germany, Brazil, Ireland, Spain and relocated games) are excluded.
  • Regular season only. Playoff home teams are usually the better team, which would inflate the number.
  • Two sources, one check. In the 1999–2020 overlap, FiveThirtyEight shows a 56.8% home win rate and nflverse 56.8%, over 5,571 and 5,568 games. Seasons differ only where the files disagree on a game's site, such as the Saints' 2005 Katrina games or the Bills' Toronto games.
  • 2026 is excluded from every chart. Through 100 regular-season games, home teams have won 51.5% against a priced edge of 1.7 points, too few games to say anything.

Show the work

Tests written down
Not in advance (exploratory)
Results computed

Regular-season games, neutral sites excluded: FiveThirtyEight 1920–1998 (n 10,612; 16,183 through 2020 for the overlap check) and nflverse 1999–2025 (n 6,901). Priced home edge is the mean point spread over non-neutral games, checked with a team-season fixed-effects fit. Descriptive history; no holdout because nothing is being predicted.

Every test we graded
TestResultVerdict
Home win % fell after 201857.4% (1999–2018) vs 53.2% (2019–25)Held
Spread home edge fell from ~2.5 to ~1.62.5 (1999–2008) to 1.6 (2021–25)Held
Home teams covered 49.3% in 2021–2549.3%, n 1,300, CI 46.6–52.0%Held; no edge
2020: road teams won more, first since the merger49.8% (538) vs 50.4% (nflverse)Partly: depends on 3 relocated games
Dome or time-zone splits differcover rates 46–51% in every groupNoise

Frequently asked questions

How many points is home field advantage worth in the NFL?

The betting market prices it at about 1.6 points in 2021–25, down from about 2.4 in 1999–2018. Home teams actually won by 2.1 points a game in 2021–25.

Is NFL home field advantage declining?

Yes. Home teams won 57.4% from 1999 to 2018 and 53.2% from 2019 to 2025. The 1920s were higher still, at 67.4%, though uneven schedules inflate that figure.

Did home teams lose more than they won in 2020?

It depends on the file. Counting San Francisco's three Arizona games as home games gives 49.8%. Treating them as neutral gives 50.4%. Either way, 2020 was the weakest home season since 1968.

Should you bet on home teams against the spread?

History says no. Home teams covered 49.0% from 1999 to 2025 and 49.3% in 2021–25, below the 52.4% break-even at −110. The road side does not clear it either.

Keep reading

Sources and method

  1. FiveThirtyEight NFL Elo game file, 1920–2021 (MIT)
  2. nflverse games file (scores, spreads, roof)

Research and analysis, not betting advice. Past results do not guarantee future returns; bet only what you can afford to lose.