Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W9 | Ian ThomasTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 7.2 | 5.1 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 8.0 | 4.6 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 24.6 | 23.6 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 12.8 | 7.3 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 3.1 | 1.6 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 18.0 | 4.8 | −13.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 5.5 | 0.0 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.6 | 2.3 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.4 | 1.5 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.4 | 0.7 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Marquez CallawayWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 12.3 | 8.9 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 6.1 | 0.0 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 5.8 | 2.1 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 3.6 | 1.4 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | DeeJay DallasRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.6 | 0.2 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 10.5 | 7.6 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Brock WrightTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.6 | 1.1 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 7.1 | 2.6 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Trey SermonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 4.0 | 2.3 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 12.3 | 10.4 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 17.1 | 11.9 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Deven ThompkinsWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.3 | -0.2 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 4.1 | 0.0 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 8.3 | 0.0 | −8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 19.5 | 10.5 | −9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 17.4 | 13.7 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Will MalloryTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Xavier GipsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 9.8 | 0.0 | −9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Josh WhyleTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 3.6 | 2.2 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 5.7 | 5.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Rakim JarrettWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 3.9 | 1.9 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 10.4 | 7.2 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyler ScottWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jonathan MingoWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 6.5 | 0.0 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 8.9 | 4.8 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 10.3 | 2.1 | −8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 11.2 | 9.7 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 14.1 | 11.5 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 9.3 | 5.3 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 3.0 | 0.7 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Isaiah WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 4.8 | 0.0 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jalen CokerWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 7.4 | 5.6 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 11.1 | 3.4 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Javon BakerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.8 | 0.9 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 15.0 | 6.2 | −8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 12.1 | 5.1 | −7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 15.9 | 9.2 | −6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Malachi CorleyWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.9 | -0.2 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.3 | 1.7 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Geno SmithQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 16.0 | 8.1 | −7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 11.5 | 1.3 | −10.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 14.6 | 12.7 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 3.6 | 2.1 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyler LockettWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 14.6 | 1.9 | −12.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 18.3 | 15.5 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 4.7 | 2.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 18.1 | 11.5 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tim PatrickWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 6.1 | 0.0 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Pharaoh BrownTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 5.1 | 0.0 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.2 | 1.3 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Equanimeous St. BrownWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 4.3 | 0.0 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ian ThomasTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 8.9 | 5.6 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Olamide ZaccheausWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 5.4 | 0.0 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.3 | 1.9 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.4 | 0.3 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 5.1 | 3.3 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Noah FantTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 7.3 | 5.2 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.4 | 0.9 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 8.7 | 3.7 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 12.2 | 2.6 | −9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Josiah DeguaraTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 11.8 | 8.5 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Dyami BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 3.0 | 1.6 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse