Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2024 W4Hassan HaskinsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Treylon BurksWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA)3.32.3−1.0❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Chig OkonkwoTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA)4.81.5−3.3❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Calvin Austin IIIWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND)4.62.7−1.9❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Skyy MooreWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC)1.80.0−1.8❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Breece HallRB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN)17.63.8−13.8❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Will MalloryTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT)2.10.0−2.1❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Brady RussellRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs DET)0.50.0−0.5❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Bijan RobinsonRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO)16.611.4−5.2❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Josh WhyleTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA)2.51.5−1.0❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Jalin HyattWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL)2.40.0−2.4❌Backtest ·
2024 W4De'Von AchaneRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN)16.15.9−10.2❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Zach CharbonnetRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs DET)14.010.4−3.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W4British BrooksRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX)1.70.0−1.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Braelon AllenRB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN)7.35.6−1.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Jared WileyTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W3James ConnerRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET)15.73.5−12.2❌Backtest ·
2024 W3Raheem BlackshearRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest ·
2024 W3Trey McBrideTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET)11.35.5−5.8❌Backtest ·
2024 W3Emari DemercadoRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET)3.70.7−3.0❌Backtest ·
2024 W3Elijah HigginsTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET)2.92.1−0.8❌Backtest ·
2024 W3Ja'Tavion SandersTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV)3.40.0−3.4❌Backtest ·
2024 W3Tip ReimanTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET)0.80.0−0.8❌Backtest ·

NewerPage 22 of 22 · 2,123 calls

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse