Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W12 | James RobinsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dalton KeeneTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 9.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | AJ DillonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Anthony McFarlandRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | DeeJay DallasRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Mike StrachanWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Hunter KampmoyerTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Michael BandyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Samori ToureWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Keaontay IngramRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ethan FerneaWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tyreik McAllisterRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tyquan ThorntonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Will MalloryTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Evan HullRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Bryce Ford-WheatonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brycen TremayneWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Malik CunninghamWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Chris CollierRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jalen CokerWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 8.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | British BrooksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | MarShawn LloydRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jared WileyTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brandon BoldenRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Marquise GoodwinWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brandin CooksWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 7.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 12.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Melvin GordonRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Phillip DorsettWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Robbie ChosenWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 11.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Byron PringleWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Braxton BerriosWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Michael GallupWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Hunter RenfrowWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zach GentryTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | David SillsWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Andy IsabellaWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jesper HorstedTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | N'Keal HarryTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cody WhiteWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | James ProcheWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zack MossRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 11.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Chase ClaypoolWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ben MasonTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Chris EvansRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jaelon DardenWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 3.0 | -0.7 | −3.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Justin FieldsQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 17.4 | 1.7 | −15.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Michael BandyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Dareke YoungWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | David BellWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse