Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W11 | Tyreik McAllisterRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Johnny Johnson IIIWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cole FotheringhamTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 7.3 | 1.3 | −6.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brycen TremayneWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | John ShenkerTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Chris CollierRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kendall MiltonRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Julio JonesWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Darren WallerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Damiere ByrdWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Blake BellTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tyler KroftTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Matt BreidaRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Anthony FirkserTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | John RossWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 16.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jason CabindaRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Cody ThompsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Devine OzigboRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tyree JacksonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Joseph FortsonTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Parris CampbellWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jakob JohnsonRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Salvon AhmedRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Lawrence CagerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Marquez CallawayWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Donovan Peoples-JonesWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Quez WatkinsWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Deon JacksonRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Hunter KampmoyerTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tre' McKittyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Britain CoveyWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Greg DulcichTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jashaun CorbinRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Antoine GreenWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Dante MillerRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Sione VakiRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kameron JohnsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jared WileyTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jalen McMillanWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 7.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Randall CobbWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Latavius MurrayRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Damien WilliamsRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | DeVante ParkerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 6.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | DeAndre CarterWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Damiere ByrdWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ty MontgomeryWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Chris MooreWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dwayne WashingtonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse