Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W6 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | 4.2 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Russell GageWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 9.3 | 6.6 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.3) | 19.8 | 19.6 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 21.1 | 15.4 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Malik TurnerWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 16.5 | 20.0 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Steven SimsWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 7.2 | 9.4 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 3.4 | 1.9 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | 3.5 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.8) | 14.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 3.2 | 1.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 11.4 | 6.7 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Trayveon WilliamsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4) | 4.0 | 9.9 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 16.5 | 19.5 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 12.2 | 20.5 | +8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Cody WhiteWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 8.4 | 1.5 | −7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 14.2 | 33.9 | +19.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Gabe DavisWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 9.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 14.7 | 6.6 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Zack MossRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 10.6 | 1.7 | −8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 13.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 10.3 | 9.3 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | 0.0 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | DeeJay DallasRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Quintin MorrisTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Dyami BrownWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 9.7 | 4.0 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Zach DavidsonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Simi FehokoWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jack StollTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jaelon DardenWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.6) | 16.6 | 19.2 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Mac JonesQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.3) | 15.4 | 11.2 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Elijah MooreWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Josh PalmerWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 6.9 | 8.0 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Hunter LongTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 2.8 | 3.9 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 5.9 | 7.9 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Dareke YoungWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Justyn RossWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Greg DulcichTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 11.7 | 6.3 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 6.5 | 10.8 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Montrell WashingtonWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | James MitchellTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Mike WoodsWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 2.4 | 1.8 | −0.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kaden DavisWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Raheem BlackshearRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 3.3 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 6.6 | 10.6 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 4.1 | 2.6 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 19.8 | 16.7 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Skyy MooreWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyquan ThorntonWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 9.0 | 0.0 | −9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 8.1 | 10.1 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Thomas OdukoyaTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jason BrownleeWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Nikko RemigioWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 20.3 | 35.8 | +15.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 19.1 | 30.2 | +11.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4) | 6.4 | 8.4 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 11.9 | 8.9 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 7.5 | 4.9 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jalen BrooksWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Elijah CooksWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | 5.7 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 3.5 | 6.1 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | 10.3 | +8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse