Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W7 | Terrance FergusonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 10.1 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Elijah ArroyoTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | 6.2 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Aaron RodgersQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 14.3 | 17.5 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 8.1 | 9.2 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 6.3 | 14.0 | +7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jacoby BrissettQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.8) | 12.0 | 20.7 | +8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Johnny MundtTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | 2.4 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kendrick BourneWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 9.9 | 19.2 | +9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tim PatrickWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | 9.6 | +7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Samaje PerineRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | 5.2 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 7.4 | 8.7 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.6) | 21.1 | 31.5 | +10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Evan EngramTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 7.5 | 9.9 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4) | 2.9 | 12.9 | +10.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | 4.2 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 16.5 | 20.0 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 7.2 | 9.4 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | 3.5 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4) | 4.0 | 9.9 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 16.5 | 19.5 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 12.2 | 20.5 | +8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 14.2 | 33.9 | +19.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.6) | 16.6 | 19.2 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Josh PalmerWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 6.9 | 8.0 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Hunter LongTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 2.8 | 3.9 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 5.9 | 7.9 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 6.5 | 10.8 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 3.3 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 6.6 | 10.6 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 8.1 | 10.1 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 20.3 | 35.8 | +15.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 19.1 | 30.2 | +11.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4) | 6.4 | 8.4 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | 5.7 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 3.5 | 6.1 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | 10.3 | +8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 5.3 | 9.0 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 17.1 | 31.0 | +13.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 16.2 | 18.5 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 3.3 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | 22.8 | +20.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 7.1 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 2.2 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 4.3 | 5.3 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 15.7 | 23.0 | +7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Mitchell EvansTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | 3.1 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 5.7 | 11.8 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Gage LarvadainWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 4.2 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Konata MumpfieldWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | 1.7 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 13.3 | 31.0 | +17.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tyler LockettWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | 7.6 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Sterling ShepardWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 7.0 | 11.9 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 16.4 | 28.3 | +11.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 5.0 | 10.6 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Evan EngramTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 6.9 | 13.3 | +6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 10.9 | 11.9 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 8.0 | 18.7 | +10.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tyler ConklinTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 3.2 | 5.0 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 8.7 | 11.0 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Christian KirkWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 8.7 | 10.4 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 9.5 | 12.1 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Calvin RidleyWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 9.5 | 18.1 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.6) | 16.2 | 26.7 | +10.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.3) | 15.8 | 27.6 | +11.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 7.5 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jake BrowningQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.3) | 12.6 | 19.1 | +6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | 1.9 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 12.4 | 15.4 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected −0.3) | 15.2 | 22.7 | +7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 23.2 | 31.6 | +8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Harrison BryantTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | 1.5 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 15.3 | 16.0 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 11.5 | 23.0 | +11.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 10.8 | 14.7 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 16.6 | 29.0 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Justin FieldsQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 20.0 | 25.9 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 19.0 | 26.9 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dareke YoungWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 4.6 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 16.0 | 23.1 | +7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 10.2 | 11.0 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 1.3 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 2.4 | 6.8 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 18.8 | 31.1 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 12.0 | 23.9 | +11.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | 2.0 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 6.3 | 12.1 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 17.6 | 27.2 | +9.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 9.8 | 11.1 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | 16.8 | +12.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 4.2 | 13.2 | +9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 2.0 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 8.2 | 16.8 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected −0.8) | 15.9 | 28.8 | +12.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | 18.4 | +15.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brenden BatesTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 0.3 | 4.3 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | British BrooksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | 1.5 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | 6.6 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 13.4 | 14.4 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Emeka EgbukaWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 14.9 | 31.3 | +16.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jayden HigginsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | 7.2 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse