Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W10 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 12.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 3.9 | 3.1 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 4.5 | 0.0 | −4.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 8.5 | 9.4 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Justin WatsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Braxton BerriosWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Christian KirkWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 6.6 | 1.3 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Steven SimsWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | 2.2 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 3.7 | 6.2 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 9.0 | 12.9 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 12.0 | 6.5 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 14.1 | 3.3 | −10.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Cody WhiteWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 4.4 | 1.7 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Gabe DavisWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 8.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 14.6 | 3.9 | −10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 11.9 | 19.8 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 12.2 | 22.6 | +10.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 14.2 | 19.4 | +5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Simi FehokoWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jaelon DardenWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 17.8 | 16.9 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 21.2 | 16.8 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Elijah MooreWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 4.2 | 2.8 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Josh PalmerWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 5.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Britain CoveyWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 11.6 | 23.9 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 12.5 | 12.8 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Mike WoodsWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 6.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kaden DavisWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Rashid ShaheedWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 12.0 | 3.3 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 12.9 | 18.4 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | 0.0 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 9.1 | 3.4 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 13.9 | 12.2 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Xavier GipsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 22.1 | 20.3 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 7.5 | 7.4 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 10.8 | 5.5 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jalen BrooksWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | 3.4 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jared WayneWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Shedrick JacksonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tank DellWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 8.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 6.6 | 3.1 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 11.0 | 1.3 | −9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | 11.5 | +8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 11.7 | 14.3 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 7.4 | 9.3 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tahj WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 11.1 | 13.6 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Malachi CorleyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 3.2 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Darius CooperWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jayden HigginsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 3.9 | 15.2 | +11.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jaylin NoelWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | 7.5 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Dominic LovettWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Gage LarvadainWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ke'Shawn WilliamsWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 5.2 | 1.4 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tory HortonWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ricky White IIIWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Isaac TeSlaaWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | 2.1 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jack BechWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Keenan AllenWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 13.4 | 6.1 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Brandin CooksWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 4.3 | 3.6 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tyler LockettWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Demarcus RobinsonWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 4.9 | 0.0 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse