Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W16 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 7.6 | 20.5 | +12.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 3.9 | 8.2 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 5.3 | 9.5 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 8.4 | 21.6 | +13.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 15.9 | 31.0 | +15.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.3 | 7.9 | +5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 13.8 | 16.1 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 12.9 | 18.2 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Sione VakiRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.7 | 4.0 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 8.2 | 10.1 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 0.6 | 1.6 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 14.8 | 21.0 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 3.6 | 9.3 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 12.5 | 17.4 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 15.5 | 22.8 | +7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 12.3 | 20.2 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.5 | 5.1 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 18.8 | 41.1 | +22.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 16.0 | 18.6 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tim PatrickWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 7.5 | 13.0 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 10.9 | 19.8 | +8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 25.3 | 36.1 | +10.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 14.3 | 15.0 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 15.7 | 28.0 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 9.3 | 17.8 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 4.5 | 17.3 | +12.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 13.1 | 14.9 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Mason KinseyWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 0.6 | 2.1 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Devin DuvernayWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 3.2 | 7.2 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 18.4 | 28.1 | +9.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 15.7 | 19.8 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 5.4 | 8.4 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 9.6 | 23.0 | +13.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 15.4 | 17.7 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 5.0 | 9.0 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 17.7 | 37.3 | +19.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Mac JonesQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 11.9 | 18.7 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.8 | 3.7 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 16.4 | 26.3 | +9.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 4.0 | 8.0 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 6.2 | 13.9 | +7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Josh WhyleTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.7 | 14.7 | +12.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 18.4 | 26.3 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 5.4 | 8.4 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 8.1 | 9.3 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 7.2 | 27.2 | +20.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 10.8 | 18.1 | +7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jalen CokerWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 6.3 | 21.0 | +14.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Cam GrandyTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.3 | 3.2 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 3.2 | 4.0 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.0 | 9.1 | +8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.9 | 3.3 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 5.1 | 10.9 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 14.9 | 32.5 | +17.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 13.6 | 17.6 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 15.0 | 25.9 | +10.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 13.5 | 28.1 | +14.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 10.9 | 21.1 | +10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 6.5 | 9.1 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 9.0 | 18.1 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 5.4 | 6.0 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 14.0 | 19.4 | +5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 18.1 | 24.6 | +6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Drew LockQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 10.5 | 15.0 | +4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 6.7 | 15.0 | +8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 13.5 | 15.1 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 17.3 | 23.5 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 12.2 | 20.2 | +8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Devin DuvernayWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.4 | 3.1 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 16.6 | 21.4 | +4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 0.9 | 2.1 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 21.4 | 24.6 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 10.3 | 20.9 | +10.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 5.5 | 6.6 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 18.8 | 45.1 | +26.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.7 | 6.0 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 5.4 | 7.3 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 6.7 | 10.6 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 6.1 | 12.3 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 6.6 | 10.9 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 15.4 | 18.4 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 16.1 | 22.1 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 16.3 | 23.7 | +7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 17.3 | 20.1 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 3.5 | 9.2 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 5.9 | 13.2 | +7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 5.9 | 8.1 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 9.3 | 13.1 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Michael MayerTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 4.0 | 13.8 | +9.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 10.6 | 12.5 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 13.2 | 14.9 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.1 | 2.0 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.7 | 3.4 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 12.1 | 16.6 | +4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Russell WilsonQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 14.0 | 26.9 | +12.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Adam ThielenWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 11.6 | 23.9 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 10.7 | 12.5 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 11.9 | 24.3 | +12.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | DeAndre HopkinsWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 8.9 | 13.0 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.6 | 8.3 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse