Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Philip RiversQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 8.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.8) | 19.5 | 0.0 | −19.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Malik WillisQB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.6) | 15.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.3) | 13.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyrod TaylorQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 13.3 | -1.8 | −15.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Daniel JonesQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 17.0 | 0.8 | −16.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Trey LanceQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 13.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 10.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Mac JonesQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 18.8 | -0.3 | −19.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 15.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3) | 12.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Carson WentzQB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.3) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.6) | 19.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tyler HuntleyQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 20.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 11.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Cooper RushQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected −0.6) | 13.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Michael Penix Jr.QB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 17.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.8) | 14.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6) | 17.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jacoby BrissettQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 10.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cooper RushQB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 11.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 16.4 | 0.0 | −16.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 11.3 | 6.0 | −5.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 12.4 | 0.0 | −12.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 12.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jameis WinstonQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 9.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 15.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 16.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 13.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Aidan O'ConnellQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 12.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 16.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tommy DeVitoQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 11.5 | 0.0 | −11.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 15.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tommy DeVitoQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 10.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Daniel JonesQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 12.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Justin FieldsQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 17.4 | 1.7 | −15.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jacoby BrissettQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 11.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Skylar ThompsonQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 12.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Will LevisQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 16.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Marcus MariotaQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 15.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Deshaun WatsonQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 14.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyler HuntleyQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 15.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Skylar ThompsonQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 13.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Aidan O'ConnellQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 9.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Dorian Thompson-RobinsonQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 11.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Joe FlaccoQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 15.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Justin FieldsQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 14.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Skylar ThompsonQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 11.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jayden DanielsQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 24.5 | 5.2 | −19.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jacoby BrissettQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 10.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Mason RudolphQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 12.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jake HaenerQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 11.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Skylar ThompsonQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 11.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Skylar ThompsonQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 11.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Will LevisQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 11.2 | -0.5 | −11.7 | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse