Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W6 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jacob SaylorsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 11.0 | 16.5 | +5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 2.5 | 1.7 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 23.4 | 4.8 | −18.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 18.7 | 7.5 | −11.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 2.8 | 22.8 | +20.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 6.3 | 6.3 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Brenden RiceWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 0.9 | 1.2 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jaylen JohnsonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Cody SchraderRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 4.7 | 2.3 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 4.3 | 5.3 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 13.7 | 23.0 | +9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 1.1 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 5.7 | 11.8 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Dominic LovettWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jackson MeeksTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jaydon BlueRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Konata MumpfieldWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | 1.7 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 17.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Isaac TeSlaaWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tre HarrisWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 2.2 | 6.7 | +4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Terrance FergusonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Adam ThielenWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | 0.0 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Nick VannettTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 5.1 | 0.0 | −5.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Carson WentzQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 12.3 | 14.7 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected −0.5) | 16.4 | 28.3 | +11.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.5) | 19.4 | 20.1 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 10.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Anthony FirkserTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ross DwelleyTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 8.7 | 11.0 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Justin WatsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Braxton BerriosWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Christian KirkWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 8.7 | 10.4 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 9.5 | 12.1 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 7.0 | 9.8 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 6.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 1.8 | 11.5 | +9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Parker HesseTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Parris CampbellWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 12.6 | 18.2 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jakob JohnsonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Trishton JacksonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected +0.0) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Harrison BryantTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 0.6 | 1.5 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected +0.0) | 13.2 | 19.3 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 3.5 | 5.3 | +1.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 15.3 | 16.0 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jermar JeffersonRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 1.8 | 8.9 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 20.1 | 18.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 19.0 | 26.9 | +7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 13.2 | 2.0 | −11.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 19.0 | 13.7 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 3.2 | 2.1 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected +0.0) | 5.2 | 7.2 | +2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 10.5 | 12.6 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 9.5 | 0.0 | −9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 12.0 | 23.9 | +11.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 6.4 | -0.2 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 2.6 | 1.3 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | 16.8 | +12.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jared WayneWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 1.3 | 2.0 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jacob SaylorsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected +0.0) | 9.2 | 15.1 | +5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 11.4 | 20.2 | +8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 23.0 | 16.7 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.5) | 15.9 | 28.8 | +12.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 3.4 | 18.4 | +15.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brenden BatesTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | 4.3 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | British BrooksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 0.9 | 1.5 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse