Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W5 | Jayden HigginsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | 7.2 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jaylin NoelWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | 9.8 | +8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tai FeltonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dominic LovettWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jackson MeeksTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Myles PriceWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ben YurosekTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 6.9 | 2.4 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Isaac TeSlaaWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 2.4 | 8.2 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Adam ThielenWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 7.3 | 3.1 | −4.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Keenan AllenWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 13.7 | 8.7 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Brandin CooksWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 4.8 | 5.2 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Nick VannettTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Carson WentzQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 13.8 | 21.2 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 12.4 | 11.2 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tyler ConklinTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 3.7 | 1.3 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Equanimeous St. BrownWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Dante PettisWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.4) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 9.4 | 7.9 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Trayveon WilliamsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Trishton JacksonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.4) | 8.5 | 5.8 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 16.6 | 22.6 | +6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.5) | 19.4 | 12.5 | −6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Dez FitzpatrickWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jack StollTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.4) | 1.3 | 1.7 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 12.0 | 9.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 6.2 | 9.2 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 10.4 | 10.2 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 8.6 | 9.2 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Velus Jones Jr.RB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Evan HullRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 3.8 | 16.4 | +12.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 13.6 | 23.8 | +10.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 3.0 | 12.5 | +9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ronnie BellWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 4.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 9.9 | 15.4 | +5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Audric EstiméRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 11.8 | 13.9 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Bub MeansWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Brenden RiceWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Devaughn VeleWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Treyton WelchTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.4) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.4) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jermaine JacksonWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jaylen JohnsonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 13.3 | 2.1 | −11.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tai FeltonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 6.9 | 3.6 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Devin NealRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Moliki MatavaoTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.4) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Myles PriceWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 13.9 | 27.5 | +13.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tre HarrisWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 14.4 | 13.8 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Geno SmithQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.5) | 15.0 | 26.1 | +11.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Brandin CooksWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 5.0 | 5.4 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 16.1 | 14.6 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 7.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 4.8 | 1.4 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.5) | 17.3 | 12.0 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.5) | 17.6 | 12.7 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 6.0 | 0.0 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Pharaoh BrownTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.4) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Anthony FirkserTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected −0.2) | 14.6 | 6.7 | −7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | 4.5 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse