Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W15 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 6.4 | 0.0 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 3.5 | 5.1 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 14.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Isaiah McKenzieWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Cooper RushQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 13.3 | 19.1 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 14.4 | 0.0 | −14.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Michael GallupWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | D.J. MontgomeryWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 13.1 | 14.9 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 12.5 | 10.1 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 3.9 | 4.1 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 13.8 | 9.8 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 14.4 | 26.6 | +12.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 5.7 | 1.6 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 3.1 | 7.7 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Trey SermonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 3.2 | 3.2 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 0.8 | 3.7 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 2.8 | 0.3 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ethan FerneaWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 9.6 | 0.0 | −9.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 6.3 | 8.1 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 4.3 | 2.7 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 16.4 | 13.2 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 7.4 | 4.3 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Will MalloryTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Evan HullRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 2.9 | 8.7 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 10.3 | 6.2 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 16.6 | 17.8 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Anthony RichardsonQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 15.8 | 14.4 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.4 | 1.2 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 3.2 | 4.0 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.9 | 3.3 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 5.6 | -3.0 | −8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brandon BoldenRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Derek CarrQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 15.2 | 12.0 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 9.3 | 0.8 | −8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 23.6 | 12.9 | −10.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 3.7 | 3.5 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 8.2 | 3.9 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 4.8 | 9.6 | +4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 6.5 | 9.1 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Equanimeous St. BrownWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Keith KirkwoodWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 3.6 | 2.8 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.9 | 1.9 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Dante PettisWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 14.7 | 13.7 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 5.4 | 6.0 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Hunter RenfrowWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Keelan DossWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Zach GentryTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jalen GuytonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 6.7 | 15.0 | +8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 11.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Harrison BryantTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 14.0 | 13.7 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Lynn BowdenWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.7 | 1.4 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Simi FehokoWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Hunter KampmoyerTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.5 | 1.6 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Josh PalmerWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 8.0 | 13.8 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 6.9 | 1.5 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 11.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyreik McAllisterRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.2 | 8.4 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Cole FotheringhamTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse