Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W9 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 0.7 | 2.2 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 12.2 | 17.5 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Will MalloryTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected −0.2) | 18.8 | 17.6 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 11.6 | 15.3 | +3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Dylan DrummondWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 11.1 | 17.7 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 12.6 | 3.0 | −9.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected −0.2) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Brenden RiceWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jaylen JohnsonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 4.0 | 1.7 | −2.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 14.6 | 9.6 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Michael Penix Jr.QB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected −0.5) | 13.1 | 22.7 | +9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 12.5 | 7.6 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | DJ GiddensRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 10.9 | 11.8 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ulysses Bentley IVRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Nate CarterRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected −0.2) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 15.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tre HarrisWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 3.2 | 3.8 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 18.3 | 6.6 | −11.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Parris CampbellWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 13.6 | 14.6 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 17.1 | 17.9 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 14.5 | 14.8 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Malik DavisRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 0.8 | 0.3 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 5.5 | 12.7 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 4.8 | 0.8 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4) | 11.0 | 0.0 | −11.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | 4.5 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 2.4 | 0.2 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 4.3 | 1.7 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4) | 0.8 | 1.9 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jaydon BlueRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 2.3 | 2.9 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.5) | 17.1 | 27.4 | +10.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Geno SmithQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.5) | 10.1 | 2.8 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Brandin CooksWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 4.3 | 1.3 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 23.7 | 26.5 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 2.5 | 1.2 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 8.5 | 4.9 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 14.0 | 5.9 | −8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Equanimeous St. BrownWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Ian ThomasTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 9.5 | 18.8 | +9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Justin WatsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Braxton BerriosWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 2.0 | 0.9 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 8.7 | 2.1 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Dante PettisWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 10.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | David SillsWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jakob JohnsonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 7.1 | 12.9 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Harrison BryantTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 3.4 | 7.7 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.0) | 8.9 | 9.8 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Albert OkwuegbunamTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.4) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 16.8 | 6.7 | −10.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jack StollTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Feleipe FranksTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 6.4 | 0.0 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected −0.2) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.4) | 9.1 | 13.2 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.0) | 20.3 | 8.2 | −12.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 12.6 | 26.8 | +14.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected −0.2) | 6.6 | 1.6 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Teagan QuitorianoTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.4) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Deven ThompkinsWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 9.3 | 8.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 6.3 | 0.0 | −6.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 19.3 | 8.5 | −10.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse