Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W16 | Myles PriceWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jack BechWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 3.3 | 3.7 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 13.3 | 13.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | 1.3 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jayden HigginsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 6.4 | 6.4 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jaylin NoelWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 3.5 | 3.3 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dominic LovettWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | 2.4 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 7.5 | 7.4 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Devaughn VeleWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 2.6 | 2.5 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Isaac TeSlaaWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 2.0 | 2.1 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 14.5 | 14.8 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 6.3 | 6.3 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 1.1 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Brandin CooksWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 4.8 | 5.2 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Brandin CooksWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 5.0 | 5.4 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | John Metchie IIIWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 4.8 | 4.4 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brandin CooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 9.6 | 9.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.9 | 1.9 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.5 | 1.6 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.3 | 2.1 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 3.8 | 3.5 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | John Metchie IIIWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 3.6 | 3.6 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 16.8 | 16.8 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 9.9 | 9.6 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.2 | 2.1 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 12.9 | 12.5 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 9.9 | 10.1 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Trent SherfieldWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.1 | 1.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.2 | 2.3 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 3.6 | 3.3 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse