Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W17 | Zack MossRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.9) | 9.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | AJ DillonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.9) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 12.3 | 12.1 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.7) | 3.6 | 5.0 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 17.2 | 40.1 | +22.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.5) | 15.4 | 8.9 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 2.4 | 1.2 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.4) | 10.9 | 10.1 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 25.5 | 19.2 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 1.4 | 2.3 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 6.1 | 1.9 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 8.6 | 10.1 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 12.7 | 2.0 | −10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −1.3) | 8.0 | 1.8 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 12.0 | 16.2 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 7.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +1.1) | 18.3 | 11.3 | −7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +1.0) | 18.3 | 4.4 | −13.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.4) | 1.5 | 1.3 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 11.4 | 5.5 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.5) | 6.3 | 1.9 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.6) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 8.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 10.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 13.7 | 17.6 | +3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 14.3 | 30.3 | +16.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 8.9 | 7.9 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.5) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 10.5 | 18.1 | +7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −1.0) | 12.3 | 6.3 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +1.0) | 2.5 | 5.8 | +3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −1.0) | 17.6 | 24.8 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.8) | 9.8 | 2.9 | −6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −1.1) | 20.2 | 13.1 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 6.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 6.2 | 9.6 | +3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 4.3 | 8.9 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 8.9 | 4.4 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 4.6 | 5.4 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 8.3 | 7.3 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 15.1 | 5.8 | −9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 17.2 | 5.1 | −12.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.7) | 10.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 10.8 | 1.6 | −9.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 15.9 | 10.6 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 13.7 | 36.1 | +22.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.4) | 13.4 | 14.6 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +1.1) | 15.8 | 23.0 | +7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +1.3) | 11.8 | 9.3 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 10.6 | 2.4 | −8.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 3.9 | 2.6 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rasheen AliRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 2.4 | -0.3 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 3.5 | 5.3 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 5.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 5.9 | 2.3 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 10.6 | 22.9 | +12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 15.8 | 29.4 | +13.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 13.1 | 8.0 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Latavius MurrayRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 3.3 | 8.2 | +4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jerick McKinnonRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 16.1 | 19.8 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Melvin GordonRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.7) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −1.9) | 15.3 | 20.9 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.7) | 18.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Samaje PerineRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 3.3 | 8.0 | +4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +1.2) | 22.7 | 26.6 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 10.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 15.3 | 8.1 | −7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 13.1 | 5.4 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 13.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +1.0) | 10.8 | 15.9 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | -1.9 | −4.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 6.1 | 20.1 | +14.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Nick BawdenRB NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Christian KirkWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 8.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Nick ChubbRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 6.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.6) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.8) | 21.3 | 27.0 | +5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Justice HillRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.8) | 8.7 | 3.0 | −5.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mecole HardmanWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.9) | 13.9 | 8.0 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 5.8 | 3.0 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 3.0 | 1.8 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 13.2 | 14.7 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 10.5 | 9.5 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.8) | 21.3 | 20.7 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 10.9 | 25.1 | +14.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse