Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W16 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −1.0) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 14.7 | 39.8 | +25.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | AJ DillonRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.4) | 7.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.6) | 5.0 | 5.6 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.9) | 11.3 | 12.3 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −1.0) | 12.6 | 4.2 | −8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | 9.8 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rondale MooreWR ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.5) | 12.0 | 5.7 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +1.4) | 8.6 | 3.5 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.8) | 9.7 | 14.2 | +4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.2) | 19.4 | 27.6 | +8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.7) | 15.2 | 11.0 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 11.9 | 4.2 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 7.7 | 4.1 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 9.8 | 24.1 | +14.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 9.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 14.1 | 11.4 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 17.0 | 5.0 | −12.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 7.8 | 11.9 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +1.4) | 18.3 | 19.9 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.1) | 14.9 | 14.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −1.0) | 13.0 | 13.9 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −1.2) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.9) | 21.0 | 24.3 | +3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 14.4 | 24.0 | +9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.9) | 6.6 | 10.1 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 7.9 | 7.9 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | 3.9 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 9.1 | 5.5 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 5.6 | 2.2 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 8.4 | 21.6 | +13.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.6) | 16.9 | 15.3 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.7) | 10.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.6) | 16.9 | 13.6 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.7) | 29.0 | 25.4 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.3) | 10.6 | 11.1 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.6) | 10.9 | 3.3 | −7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | George HolaniRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.8) | 12.9 | 18.2 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 6.4 | 2.4 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 3.6 | 1.4 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 4.5 | 2.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 4.8 | 1.2 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.6) | 6.6 | 3.9 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.7) | 15.1 | 28.2 | +13.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 10.2 | 20.5 | +10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 9.6 | 2.7 | −6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 16.2 | 14.7 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 12.3 | 20.2 | +7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +1.1) | 6.1 | 5.1 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.7) | 20.8 | 6.7 | −14.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.6) | 15.0 | 5.6 | −9.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 3.5 | 5.1 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.7) | 18.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 12.8 | 10.1 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −1.0) | 16.0 | 18.6 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.4) | 20.6 | 30.8 | +10.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.6) | 12.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 10.9 | 19.8 | +8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.5) | 18.3 | 10.6 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.9) | 17.1 | 17.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 8.7 | 5.9 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 8.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 10.2 | 2.4 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Boston ScottRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 14.3 | 15.0 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −2.6) | 21.0 | 9.4 | −11.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 9.3 | 17.8 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Khari BlasingameRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Miles SandersRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.5) | 4.6 | 13.1 | +8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 13.6 | 8.5 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Myles GaskinRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | 0.7 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.6) | 16.0 | 25.0 | +9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −1.4) | 14.4 | 7.5 | −6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse