Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W12 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 24.7 | 27.2 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.5) | 11.4 | 8.7 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 9.4 | 8.1 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 16.1 | 12.1 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 12.6 | 5.2 | −7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.5) | 6.1 | 4.2 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 10.8 | 13.1 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 6.9 | 5.6 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.6) | 24.0 | 55.4 | +31.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 2.8 | 3.3 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 10.4 | 5.6 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 9.8 | 4.7 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.4) | 8.0 | 3.8 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LV, expected −0.3) | 18.7 | 10.3 | −8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 8.3 | 10.5 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.6) | 17.2 | 16.6 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 21.2 | 30.3 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 9.6 | 6.7 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 5.7 | 2.8 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 3.4 | 2.8 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 4.8 | 1.8 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −1.8) | 21.5 | 17.6 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.5) | 15.1 | 13.1 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.4) | 11.5 | 15.3 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LV, expected −0.3) | 15.3 | 9.4 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 13.7 | 14.8 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 10.0 | 8.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.6) | 21.1 | 38.2 | +17.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 22.8 | 34.3 | +11.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | 1.2 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −1.0) | 11.9 | 0.7 | −11.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 8.0 | 3.4 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 17.9 | 20.0 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 11.7 | 6.9 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.4) | 9.0 | 1.7 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 19.1 | 7.3 | −11.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 16.3 | 19.2 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 9.6 | 2.7 | −6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 13.4 | 12.7 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.6) | 17.0 | 19.1 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.5) | 19.7 | 9.8 | −9.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 11.5 | 5.9 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.5) | 6.8 | 9.4 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 6.4 | 5.5 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 16.3 | 5.2 | −11.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.5) | 14.0 | 20.8 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.7) | 14.7 | 6.5 | −8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.8) | 19.3 | 8.5 | −10.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.9) | 15.0 | 12.8 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Bhayshul TutenRB JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 4.3 | 2.2 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.8) | 13.2 | 26.4 | +13.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 4.4 | 6.5 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 14.2 | 33.9 | +19.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kenny GainwellRB PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 13.3 | 9.6 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 15.1 | 8.3 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.7) | 17.2 | 8.7 | −8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 14.8 | 5.9 | −8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.4) | 10.7 | 4.7 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 10.5 | 4.7 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.4) | 15.4 | 9.3 | −6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 9.5 | 12.1 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 13.6 | 32.4 | +18.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.4) | 10.4 | 8.6 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brian RobinsonRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 3.5 | 1.2 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 16.6 | 17.5 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 6.4 | -0.2 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 5.5 | 1.4 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | 6.3 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected +0.4) | 13.5 | 15.9 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 13.7 | 14.4 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.6) | 3.3 | 8.3 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs KC, expected −0.3) | 17.3 | 7.8 | −9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 17.1 | 31.7 | +14.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.6) | 18.6 | 14.6 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 9.9 | 12.8 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 14.8 | 16.1 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.4) | 12.7 | 12.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 21.1 | 17.7 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.6) | 13.7 | 33.5 | +19.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.4) | 8.2 | 21.5 | +13.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 14.6 | 6.6 | −8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 9.2 | 7.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 19.1 | 9.5 | −9.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 6.6 | 8.3 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 19.8 | 32.8 | +13.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 13.0 | 9.6 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 19.7 | 20.8 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 15.2 | 6.0 | −9.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected −0.4) | 16.4 | 14.4 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 15.3 | 26.5 | +11.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 19.1 | 8.5 | −10.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 21.4 | 25.0 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 11.7 | 15.6 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 23.4 | 31.3 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 8.0 | 1.8 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 10.8 | 15.6 | +4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3) | 13.9 | 8.0 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 21.0 | 24.3 | +3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 12.9 | 18.2 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 21.0 | 9.4 | −11.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse