Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W8 | AJ DillonRB GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.5) | 13.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs KC, expected −0.3) | 15.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 22.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
NewerPage 5 of 5 · 406 calls
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse