Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected −0.6) | 21.8 | 15.9 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −1.2) | 21.4 | 16.0 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 21.3 | 22.7 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.4) | 15.5 | 25.9 | +10.4 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.7) | 22.1 | 27.7 | +5.6 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 7.7 | 3.1 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Kaelon BlackRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 4.9 | 1.3 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LV, expected −0.3) | 8.4 | 5.1 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 18.4 | 9.2 | −9.2 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.7) | 14.9 | 10.8 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Travis EtienneRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LV, expected −0.6) | 13.2 | 9.0 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 17.9 | 8.9 | −9.0 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 6.9 | 3.5 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 9.0 | 3.1 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 6.0 | 5.3 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 14.7 | 3.6 | −11.1 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.4) | 19.9 | 20.9 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2025 W18 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.8) | 22.2 | 11.7 | −10.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 7.4 | 10.6 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 5.8 | 19.6 | +13.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.9) | 12.4 | 5.9 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 15.1 | 35.3 | +20.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 16.2 | 9.4 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs SF, expected +0.3) | 13.7 | 17.3 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 8.7 | 2.7 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −1.0) | 19.8 | 19.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 15.4 | 27.9 | +12.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 6.6 | 2.0 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 9.7 | 2.9 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Bhayshul TutenRB JAX | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 4.9 | 8.3 | +3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 14.3 | 4.3 | −10.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 13.3 | 17.3 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 4.9 | 3.8 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.7) | 9.1 | 6.0 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 12.3 | 9.3 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 7.5 | 2.8 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jaret PattersonRB LAC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | 0.1 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 14.9 | 27.2 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kenny GainwellRB PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.6) | 11.9 | 6.8 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 6.5 | 3.2 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.7) | 13.6 | 6.4 | −7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.7) | 19.1 | 8.7 | −10.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.7) | 18.4 | 16.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −1.3) | 25.5 | 6.4 | −19.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 8.7 | 1.8 | −6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.9) | 8.9 | 22.5 | +13.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.5) | 17.2 | 21.2 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.7) | 14.6 | 9.0 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kenny GainwellRB PIT | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 11.8 | 23.8 | +12.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.5) | 18.1 | 6.3 | −11.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 6.6 | 13.5 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.4) | 12.8 | 29.1 | +16.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.8) | 14.1 | 11.5 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected +0.5) | 24.9 | 29.8 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 18.8 | 32.9 | +14.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 12.0 | 9.8 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +1.1) | 10.4 | 16.5 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | 6.1 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 10.6 | 3.0 | −7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 9.7 | 9.2 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.6) | 19.2 | 15.1 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 9.0 | 3.6 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.6) | 17.7 | 21.8 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.9) | 19.2 | 29.5 | +10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 6.5 | 0.3 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.7) | 22.0 | 9.8 | −12.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.8) | 14.0 | 8.1 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 13.9 | 24.7 | +10.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 12.2 | 8.2 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.7) | 8.9 | 3.3 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 8.8 | 15.6 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.5) | 11.2 | 10.5 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | 1.2 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.4) | 9.8 | 9.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.9) | 11.4 | 14.3 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 16.4 | 17.2 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.7) | 12.9 | 11.2 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 11.3 | 6.4 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 6.8 | 3.0 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 7.0 | 11.2 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 14.1 | 3.8 | −10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.6) | 19.8 | 9.4 | −10.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +1.4) | 25.3 | 37.0 | +11.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.5) | 13.7 | 16.1 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −1.2) | 14.2 | 5.8 | −8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dylan SampsonRB CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 3.5 | 9.8 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 8.0 | 3.2 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −1.6) | 19.6 | 17.4 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Andrew BeckRB NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.6) | 12.0 | 9.9 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.9) | 20.4 | 15.1 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 17.4 | 18.7 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Brian RobinsonRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 4.0 | 2.6 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −1.4) | 23.9 | 11.6 | −12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.8) | 7.7 | 2.0 | −5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Bhayshul TutenRB JAX | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 5.8 | 8.9 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 9.4 | 21.2 | +11.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 10.8 | 11.6 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
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How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse