Edgehalla

Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C

Pre-snap motion: every call

Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.

2024 backtest

84–83–9

50.3% vs 48.6% baseline

Win rate 50.3% (95% 42.8%–57.8%) vs baseline 48.6%

2025 backtest

550–530–68

50.9% vs 50.8% baseline

Win rate 50.9% (95% 47.9%–53.9%) vs baseline 50.8%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

44–51–3

46.3% vs 53.8% baseline

Win rate 46.3% (95% 36.6%–56.3%) vs baseline 53.8%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR316–306–3450.8%50.5%
RB205–209–2549.5%50.6%
TE113–98–1853.5%50.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.5455–443–6250.7%50.2%
0.5–1163–151–1451.9%51.0%
1+16–19–145.7%53.1%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Pre-snap motion calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Jake TongesTE SFFade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5)2.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2025 W18Zach ErtzTE WASFade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3)6.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Hunter LongTE JAXBoost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jake TongesTE SFFade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.4)5.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tucker KraftTE GBFade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −1.0)5.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Luke MusgraveTE GBFade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3)2.80.0−2.8voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Zach ErtzTE WASBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7)8.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17MyCole PruittTE PITFade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Tyler HigbeeTE LARFade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3)6.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Foster MoreauTE NOBoost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Brock WrightTE DETFade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3)3.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Darnell WashingtonTE PITFade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3)4.83.5−1.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Dalton KincaidTE BUFFade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.4)7.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Sam LaPortaTE DETFade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.7)10.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Brock BowersTE LVBoost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3)12.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Zach ErtzTE WASFade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3)8.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tyler HigbeeTE LARFade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3)5.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tyler ConklinTE LACBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Hayden HurstTE LACBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Hunter LongTE JAXFade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16James MitchellTE CARBoost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Zach ErtzTE WASBoost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3)9.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Cade OttonTE TBFade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.4)6.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tucker KraftTE GBFade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −1.0)7.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Sam LaPortaTE DETFade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4)10.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14David NjokuTE CLEBoost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.5)5.07.1+2.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Tucker KraftTE GBBoost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3)8.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Sam LaPortaTE DETBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.8)12.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Hunter LongTE JAXBoost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13James MitchellTE CARFade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3)1.10.0−1.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tucker KraftTE GBBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3)9.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Sam LaPortaTE DETFade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.8)12.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Tucker KraftTE GBFade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3)9.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Sam LaPortaTE DETBoost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.4)12.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Michael MayerTE LVFade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3)5.22.4−2.8voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Darren WallerTE MIABoost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.3)5.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Peyton HendershotTE KCFade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Tucker KraftTE GBBoost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3)9.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Jake TongesTE SFFade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.8)4.50.0−4.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Darren WallerTE MIAFade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3)6.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jake TongesTE SFFade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.5)6.90.0−6.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Brenton StrangeTE JAXFade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4)7.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Tyler ConklinTE LACBoost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3)3.30.0−3.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Dalton KincaidTE BUFFade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.4)8.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5George KittleTE SFFade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.8)9.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Stone SmarttTE NYJBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Brock BowersTE LVBoost (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected +0.4)11.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4George KittleTE SFFade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.8)10.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3George KittleTE SFFade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.5)10.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Stone SmarttTE NYJBoost (Pre-snap motion vs BUF, expected +0.3)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2024 W11George KittleTE SFBoost (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected +0.3)11.2––voidBacktest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse