Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W17 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 11.7 | 22.4 | +10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected −0.3) | 13.4 | 14.6 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.6) | 13.2 | 20.9 | +7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.6) | 12.8 | 10.1 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected +0.3) | 13.5 | 6.5 | −7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 13.6 | 9.5 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 6.8 | 17.1 | +10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 13.7 | 7.8 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 11.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 8.2 | 2.4 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.3) | 15.4 | 14.7 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 7.5 | 10.5 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 9.0 | 15.2 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | 9.2 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3) | 9.2 | 5.7 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 10.1 | 2.1 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 11.2 | 24.8 | +13.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 8.3 | 16.8 | +8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 7.8 | 17.2 | +9.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 8.5 | 24.0 | +15.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse