Edgehalla

Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C

Pre-snap motion: every call

Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.

2024 backtest

84–83–9

50.3% vs 48.6% baseline

Win rate 50.3% (95% 42.8%–57.8%) vs baseline 48.6%

2025 backtest

550–530–68

50.9% vs 50.8% baseline

Win rate 50.9% (95% 47.9%–53.9%) vs baseline 50.8%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

44–51–3

46.3% vs 53.8% baseline

Win rate 46.3% (95% 36.6%–56.3%) vs baseline 53.8%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR316–306–3450.8%50.5%
RB205–209–2549.5%50.6%
TE113–98–1853.5%50.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.5455–443–6250.7%50.2%
0.5–1163–151–1451.9%51.0%
1+16–19–145.7%53.1%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Pre-snap motion calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Travis KelceTE KCFade (Pre-snap motion vs LV, expected −0.3)11.23.5−7.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Darren WallerTE CARBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.4)7.26.6−0.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4George KittleTE SFFade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.8)14.017.0+3.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Dalton SchultzTE HOUBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3)11.62.9−8.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Kyle PittsTE ATLBoost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3)8.37.7−0.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jake TongesTE SFFade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5)2.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Nate AdkinsTE DENFade (Pre-snap motion vs SF, expected −0.3)2.60.0−2.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Matthew HibnerTE BALFade (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected −0.3)2.05.4+3.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Travis KelceTE KCBoost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3)11.913.9+2.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Noah FantTE NOFade (Pre-snap motion vs LV, expected −0.3)3.819.3+15.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Juwan JohnsonTE NOFade (Pre-snap motion vs LV, expected −0.5)9.123.3+14.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Colby ParkinsonTE LARFade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3)6.30.0−6.3✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Kyle PittsTE ATLFade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3)8.01.5−6.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Trey McBrideTE ARIFade (Pre-snap motion vs SF, expected −0.3)14.816.5+1.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Colston LovelandTE CHIFade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3)7.37.1−0.1pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLEBoost (Pre-snap motion vs CAR, expected +0.3)8.224.1+15.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Terrance FergusonTE LARFade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3)5.81.9−3.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Kyle PittsTE ATLBoost (Pre-snap motion vs CAR, expected +0.5)8.72.5−6.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Trey McBrideTE ARIFade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3)12.918.1+5.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Dalton KincaidTE BUFBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3)8.922.5+13.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse