Edgehalla

Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C

Pre-snap motion: every call

Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.

2024 backtest

84–83–9

50.3% vs 48.6% baseline

Win rate 50.3% (95% 42.8%–57.8%) vs baseline 48.6%

2025 backtest

550–530–68

50.9% vs 50.8% baseline

Win rate 50.9% (95% 47.9%–53.9%) vs baseline 50.8%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

44–51–3

46.3% vs 53.8% baseline

Win rate 46.3% (95% 36.6%–56.3%) vs baseline 53.8%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR316–306–3450.8%50.5%
RB205–209–2549.5%50.6%
TE113–98–1853.5%50.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.5455–443–6250.7%50.2%
0.5–1163–151–1451.9%51.0%
1+16–19–145.7%53.1%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Pre-snap motion calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Davante AdamsWR LARFade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.5)18.17.2−10.8✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Courtland SuttonWR DENFade (Pre-snap motion vs SF, expected −0.3)11.51.4−10.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Rashod BatemanWR BALFade (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected −0.3)10.66.6−4.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Nico CollinsWR HOUBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3)15.230.8+15.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4John Metchie IIIWR CARBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3)5.06.7+1.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Marvin Mims Jr.WR DENFade (Pre-snap motion vs SF, expected −0.3)3.82.0−1.8✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Troy FranklinWR DENFade (Pre-snap motion vs SF, expected −0.3)5.80.0−5.8✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Ladd McConkeyWR LACFade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3)8.90.0−8.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tetairoa McMillanWR CARBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3)16.845.2+28.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jordan WatkinsWR SFFade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4)3.30.0−3.3✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Stefon DiggsWR WASFade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.5)10.37.3−3.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETFade (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected −0.3)20.911.9−9.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Kevin Austin Jr.WR NOFade (Pre-snap motion vs LV, expected −0.3)2.70.0−2.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Garrett WilsonWR NYJBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.4)15.326.7+11.3✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Rashee RiceWR KCBoost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4)13.015.8+2.8✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Devaughn VeleWR NOFade (Pre-snap motion vs LV, expected −0.3)9.46.9−2.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Rome OdunzeWR CHIFade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3)9.17.4−1.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Jakobi MeyersWR JAXFade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3)11.13.8−7.3✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Wan'Dale RobinsonWR TENFade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3)8.61.9−6.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse