Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LV, expected −0.3) | 11.2 | 3.5 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 18.1 | 7.2 | −10.8 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected −0.6) | 21.8 | 15.9 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −1.2) | 21.4 | 16.0 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SF, expected −0.3) | 11.5 | 1.4 | −10.1 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 21.3 | 22.7 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 10.6 | 6.6 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 15.2 | 30.8 | +15.6 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.4) | 15.5 | 25.9 | +10.4 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | John Metchie IIIWR CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 5.0 | 6.7 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.7) | 22.1 | 27.7 | +5.6 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SF, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SF, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | 2.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 7.7 | 3.1 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SF, expected −0.3) | 5.8 | 0.0 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 8.9 | 0.0 | −8.9 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Tetairoa McMillanWR CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 16.8 | 45.2 | +28.4 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Jordan WatkinsWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Kaelon BlackRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 4.9 | 1.3 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 11.9 | 13.9 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Stefon DiggsWR WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.5) | 10.3 | 7.3 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LV, expected −0.3) | 8.4 | 5.1 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 18.4 | 9.2 | −9.2 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 6.3 | 0.0 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.7) | 14.9 | 10.8 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 20.9 | 11.9 | −9.0 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 8.0 | 1.5 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Travis EtienneRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LV, expected −0.6) | 13.2 | 9.0 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LV, expected −0.3) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.4) | 15.3 | 26.7 | +11.3 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 17.9 | 8.9 | −9.0 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 13.0 | 15.8 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Devaughn VeleWR NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LV, expected −0.3) | 9.4 | 6.9 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 6.9 | 3.5 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 9.1 | 7.4 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 9.0 | 3.1 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 6.0 | 5.3 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 8.2 | 24.1 | +15.9 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Terrance FergusonTE LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 5.8 | 1.9 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 11.1 | 3.8 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 14.7 | 3.6 | −11.1 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.4) | 19.9 | 20.9 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 8.6 | 1.9 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 8.9 | 22.5 | +13.6 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse