Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W17 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0) | 16.6 | 15.3 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 4.9 | 3.8 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 9.1 | 6.0 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Adam PrenticeRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | 0.3 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 19.6 | 11.4 | −8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 6.5 | 3.2 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 5.0 | 4.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 25.5 | 6.4 | −19.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 14.1 | 11.5 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Robbie OuztsRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 9.0 | 3.6 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.0) | 6.1 | 1.8 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 14.0 | 8.1 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 20.9 | 17.4 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 12.1 | 9.0 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0) | 16.7 | 10.1 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 10.6 | 5.3 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 20.4 | 18.3 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0) | 10.3 | 1.4 | −8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0) | 23.9 | 11.6 | −12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 5.8 | 0.0 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 6.0 | 2.5 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jakob JohnsonRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 8.5 | 7.9 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Andrew BeckRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | 0.6 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.0) | 12.4 | 8.4 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.0) | 4.7 | 1.1 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.0) | 15.3 | 9.4 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.0) | 8.8 | 3.8 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 18.7 | 13.1 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Justice HillRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 8.1 | 3.5 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 18.0 | 16.6 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ollie Gordon IIRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 3.7 | 1.9 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 8.4 | 5.0 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 14.3 | 1.6 | −12.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Samaje PerineRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 3.7 | 3.1 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kenny GainwellRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 11.3 | 3.5 | −7.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 14.0 | 12.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 17.2 | 8.7 | −8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Fade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 3.2 | 1.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Fade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 7.4 | 0.6 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Fade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brian RobinsonRB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 3.5 | 1.2 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.0) | 4.8 | 1.3 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 12.7 | 12.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Brady RussellRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 6.3 | 3.1 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 16.7 | 16.1 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0) | 11.0 | 4.4 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 16.4 | 14.4 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0) | 6.4 | 1.7 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 14.6 | 5.9 | −8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 11.0 | 8.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 10.9 | 10.1 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 8.0 | 1.8 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 5.8 | 4.6 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 4.3 | 0.5 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 15.9 | 10.6 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rasheen AliRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.4 | -0.3 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 6.4 | 2.4 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 16.4 | 13.2 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 5.7 | 0.4 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 6.1 | 2.3 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 13.0 | 9.4 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 1.9 | 0.4 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 5.0 | 2.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 21.8 | 10.4 | −11.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 2.7 | -0.2 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 12.9 | 7.4 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 9.0 | 3.7 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 2.9 | 1.6 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 20.1 | 14.1 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Justice HillRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 8.4 | 1.8 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 4.6 | -0.1 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 17.6 | 16.6 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 16.9 | 10.5 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 5.7 | 0.9 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 2 · 122 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse