Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.5% (95% 56.6%–66.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 59.8% (95% 54.8%–64.7%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

Win rate 50.8% (95% 38.4%–63.2%) vs baseline 61.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR211–119–2163.9%63.7%
TE104–73–3358.8%60.9%
RB122–71–2163.2%61.8%
QB29–39–542.6%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag241–151–4161.5%61.4%
0.25–0.5214–130–3562.2%62.4%
0.5–111–21–434.4%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Short week calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W17Robert TonyanTE KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2)0.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Ross DwelleyTE DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Brock WrightTE DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)3.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Lucas KrullTE DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Peyton HendershotTE KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Princeton FantTE DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Sam LaPortaTE DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)10.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Zach HortonTE DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jackson MeeksTE DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Nick VannettTE LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tyler HigbeeTE LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)5.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Nick KallerupTE SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2)0.40.0−0.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Elijah ArroyoTE SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Feleipe FranksTE ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.2)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ko KieftTE TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.2)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Cade OttonTE TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.2)6.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Shane ZylstraTE DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Peyton HendershotTE KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.2)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Princeton FantTE DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tucker KraftTE GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.2)9.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Sam LaPortaTE DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2)12.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Baylor CuppTE KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.2)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tanner McLachlanTE CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Cam GrandyTE CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jackson MeeksTE DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Irv SmithTE HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Harrison BryantTE HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Mitchell WilcoxTE NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.2)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Kenny YeboahTE NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.2)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Stone SmarttTE NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.2)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jelani WoodsTE NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.2)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Zack KuntzTE NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.2)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jaheim BellTE NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.2)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Albert OkwuegbunamTE LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2)4.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Lucas KrullTE DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.2)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10John ShenkerTE LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Carter RunyonTE LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Darren WallerTE MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)6.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Eric TomlinsonTE LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Nick VannettTE MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Will DisslyTE LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Hayden HurstTE LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Josh OliverTE MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2)2.50.0−2.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Nick MuseTE MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Ben SimsTE MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7MyCole PruittTE PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Tanner McLachlanTE CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.2)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Erick AllTE CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.2)4.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6C.J. UzomahTE PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.2)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Zach DavidsonTE NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.2)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6E.J. JenkinsTE PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.2)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Tyler HigbeeTE LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.2)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5George KittleTE SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2)9.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Pharaoh BrownTE ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Tyler MabryTE SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.2)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Josiah DeguaraTE ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Travis VokolekTE ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Tip ReimanTE ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)1.90.0−1.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Greg DulcichTE MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Josh WhyleTE GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Ben SimsTE GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Blake BellTE KCFade (Short week vs PIT)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Anthony FirkserTE KCFade (Short week vs PIT)0.1––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Joseph FortsonTE KCFade (Short week vs PIT)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Tyler MabryTE SEAFade (Short week vs CHI)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Brevin JordanTE HOUFade (Short week vs BAL)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Ben MasonTE BALFade (Short week vs HOU)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Teagan QuitorianoTE HOUFade (Short week vs BAL)0.1––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Charlie KolarTE BALFade (Short week vs HOU)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Baylor CuppTE KCFade (Short week vs PIT)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Jared WileyTE KCFade (Short week vs PIT)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W16Eric TomlinsonTE LACFade (Short week vs DEN)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W16Stephen AndersonTE LACFade (Short week vs DEN)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2024 W16Donald ParhamTE LACFade (Short week vs DEN)4.5––voidBacktest ·
2024 W15Brycen HopkinsTE LARFade (Short week vs SF)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2024 W15Jake TongesTE SFFade (Short week vs LAR)0.1––voidBacktest ·
2024 W15Brayden WillisTE SFFade (Short week vs LAR)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W13Darren WallerTE NYGFade (Short week vs DAL)4.2––voidBacktest ·
2024 W13Tyler KroftTE MIAFade (Short week vs GB)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2024 W13Gerald EverettTE CHIFade (Short week vs DET)1.50.0−1.5voidBacktest ·
2024 W13Tyree JacksonTE NYGFade (Short week vs DAL)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2024 W13Parker HesseTE DETFade (Short week vs CHI)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2024 W13Sean McKeonTE DALFade (Short week vs NYG)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2024 W13Lawrence CagerTE NYGFade (Short week vs DAL)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2024 W13Jack StollTE MIAFade (Short week vs GB)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2024 W13Greg DulcichTE NYGFade (Short week vs DAL)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2024 W13James MitchellTE DETFade (Short week vs CHI)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2024 W13John FitzPatrickTE GBFade (Short week vs MIA)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2024 W13Tanner ConnerTE MIAFade (Short week vs GB)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2024 W13Henry PearsonTE GBFade (Short week vs MIA)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2024 W13Luke MusgraveTE GBFade (Short week vs MIA)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2024 W12Brenden BatesTE CLEFade (Short week vs PIT)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W11Logan ThomasTE WASFade (Short week vs PHI)5.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W11Noah TogiaiTE PHIFade (Short week vs WAS)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2024 W11Albert OkwuegbunamTE PHIFade (Short week vs WAS)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2024 W11Cole TurnerTE WASFade (Short week vs PHI)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2024 W11E.J. JenkinsTE PHIFade (Short week vs WAS)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2024 W11Colson YankoffTE WASFade (Short week vs PHI)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2024 W10Ben MasonTE BALFade (Short week vs CIN)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2024 W10Erick AllTE CINFade (Short week vs BAL)4.5––voidBacktest ·

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How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse