Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth

Wind 15+ mph: every call

Outdoor games with wind of 15 mph or more cost passers and receivers points.

2024 backtest

134–87–21

60.6% vs 61.2% baseline

Win rate 60.6% (95% 54.1%–66.8%) vs baseline 61.2%

2025 backtest

206–90–24

69.6% vs 61.1% baseline

Win rate 69.6% (95% 64.1%–74.6%) vs baseline 61.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

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first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

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no graded calls

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR194–90–1868.3%63.7%
QB38–25–360.3%50.4%
TE108–62–2463.5%60.9%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag134–87–2160.6%61.2%
0.25–0.5119–42–1173.9%63.7%
0.5–164–34–1265.3%60.9%
1+23–14–162.2%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Wind 15+ mph calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W16Nick VannettTE LARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs SEA, expected +0.5)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tyler HigbeeTE LARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs SEA, expected +0.5)5.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jordan AkinsTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected +0.5)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Zach DavidsonTE NYGFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN, expected +0.5)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Nick KallerupTE SEAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected +0.5)0.40.0−0.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Thomas Fidone IITE NYGFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN, expected +0.5)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Keleki LatuTE BUFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ben YurosekTE MINFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected +0.5)0.40.0−0.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Elijah ArroyoTE SEAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected +0.5)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15C.J. UzomahTE PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV, expected +0.5)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ian ThomasTE LVFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Albert OkwuegbunamTE LVFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15E.J. JenkinsTE PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV, expected +0.5)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Carter RunyonTE LVFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13MyCole PruittTE PITFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected +0.5)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13C.J. UzomahTE PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI, expected +0.5)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Geoff SwaimTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs SF, expected +0.5)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Gerald EverettTE CHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jordan AkinsTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs SF, expected +0.5)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Stephen CarlsonTE CHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Kylen GransonTE PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI, expected +0.5)0.80.0−0.8voidBacktest ·
2025 W13E.J. JenkinsTE PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI, expected +0.5)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Brayden WillisTE SFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Dalton KincaidTE BUFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected +0.5)7.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11MyCole PruittTE PITFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CIN, expected +0.5)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11C.J. UzomahTE PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET, expected +0.5)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Geoff SwaimTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected +0.5)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Anthony FirkserTE DETFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ross DwelleyTE DETFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5)1.50.0−1.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jordan AkinsTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected +0.5)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Mike GesickiTE CINFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected +0.5)5.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Shane ZylstraTE DETFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Zach DavidsonTE NYGFade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected +0.5)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ko KieftTE TBFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected +0.5)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11E.J. JenkinsTE PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET, expected +0.5)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Cameron LatuTE PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET, expected +0.5)0.10.0−0.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Blake WhiteheartTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected +0.5)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Tucker KraftTE GBFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected +0.5)9.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Tanner McLachlanTE CINFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected +0.5)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Cam GrandyTE CINFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected +0.5)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Erick AllTE CINFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected +0.5)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Thomas Fidone IITE NYGFade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected +0.5)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Jordan MatthewsTE CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NO, expected +0.5)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Stephen SullivanTE CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NO, expected +0.5)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Jack StollTE NOFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10James MitchellTE CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NO, expected +0.5)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Treyton WelchTE NOFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Dallin HolkerTE NOFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Moliki MatavaoTE NOFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jordan MatthewsTE CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected +0.5)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Stephen SullivanTE CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected +0.5)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9James MitchellTE CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected +0.5)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Josh WhyleTE GBFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Geoff SwaimTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected +0.5)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jordan AkinsTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected +0.5)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Mitchell WilcoxTE NEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected +0.5)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Greg DulcichTE MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Thomas OdukoyaTE TENFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NE, expected +0.5)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jaheim BellTE NEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected +0.5)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Jordan MatthewsTE CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected +0.5)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Colby ParkinsonTE LARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected +0.5)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Stephen SullivanTE CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected +0.5)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Princeton FantTE DALFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Ja'Tavion SandersTE CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected +0.5)4.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Kenny YeboahTE NYJFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected +0.5)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Greg DulcichTE MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ, expected +0.5)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Stone SmarttTE NYJFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected +0.5)2.10.0−2.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Zack KuntzTE NYJFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected +0.5)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Darren WallerTE NYGFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI)4.5––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18C.J. UzomahTE PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Geoff SwaimTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Ben MasonTE BALFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Theo JohnsonTE NYGFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI)4.9––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Geoff SwaimTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Tyler KroftTE MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Evan EngramTE JAXFade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN)9.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Kevin RaderTE TENFade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Trevon WescoTE TENFade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Zach DavidsonTE BUFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Josh PedersonTE JAXFade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Jack StollTE MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE)0.40.0−0.4voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Tanner ConnerTE MIAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Thomas OdukoyaTE TENFade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Zack KuntzTE NYJFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W16Ben MasonTE BALFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2024 W16Charlie KolarTE BALFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2024 W15Blake BellTE KCFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2024 W15Geoff SwaimTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2024 W15David NjokuTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC)10.6––voidBacktest ·
2024 W15Joseph FortsonTE KCFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W15Peyton HendershotTE KCFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2024 W15Baylor CuppTE KCFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2024 W15Brenden BatesTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2024 W15Jared WileyTE KCFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W14Jordan MatthewsTE CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2024 W14Ian ThomasTE CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2024 W14Noah TogiaiTE PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2024 W14Albert OkwuegbunamTE PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2024 W14Stephen SullivanTE CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2024 W14Feleipe FranksTE CARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI)0.50.0−0.5voidBacktest ·

Page 1 of 2 · 123 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse