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Do NFL Player Props Hit the Over or Under More Often?
Unders win more often in most NFL prop markets. We graded three seasons of consensus lines to see why, and whether betting every under actually makes money.
By Edgehalla ResearchPublished 7 min read
The short answer: unders, but not by enough
If you graded every NFL player prop over the last three seasons, the under would win more often in most markets. That part is real. It has held in every season we checked.
But “unders hit more” is not the same as “unders make money.” Sportsbooks know which side the public likes. They set the line a touch high, then charge a little more for the under. What is left is close to zero.
We used consensus lines from the major U.S. books, snapshotted 60 minutes before kickoff, for every game from 2023 through 2025. Each line was graded against the player’s real stat line. Pushes and voids were dropped.
How often the over hit, market by market
Here is the over rate in each market by season. Anything under 50% means the under won more often. Four markets only have lines in our data for 2025.
Over hit rate by market and season
Consensus line at kickoff − 60 min, NFL regular season
Overs hit below 50% in almost every market and season, with passing yards and passing TDs the closest to a coin flip.
- 2023
- 2024
- 2025
Rushing yards is the cleanest case. The over hit 46.4%, 45.9% and 47.3% across the three seasons. Receiving yards and receptions drifted further toward the under each year, bottoming out in 2025.
Passing yards behaved differently. The over hit 51.4% in 2023 and 50.3% in 2025. One possible reason: quarterback lines draw the most sharp money, which may leave less room to shade them.
The pattern has carried into 2026 so far. Through Week 4, rushing-yard overs hit 44.3%, receptions 47.1% and receiving yards 48.5%. Passing-yard overs hit 53.1%. Four weeks is a small sample, so read that as a hint, not a trend.
What happens if you bet every under?
Most props are priced near −110. You risk $110 to win $100, so you need to win 52.4% of your bets to break even. A pure coin-flip bettor loses about 4.5 cents per dollar staked.
Unders often cost more than −110. When an under is priced at −125, the break-even rate climbs to 55.6%. So we graded blind unders at their real consensus prices, not at a flat −110.
Betting every under, by market
Win rate of the under at the consensus line, 2023–25
Unders won 52–54% in most markets, but only rush attempts finished above zero ROI once real prices were applied.
Every under-leaning market cleared 52.4% on win rate. Almost none of them made money. Rush attempts returned +0.4% on one season of data. Rushing yards returned −0.9%, receptions −1.4% and receiving yards −2.3%.
Passing touchdowns show how prices change the math. The under 1.5 is usually priced around −150, which needs a 60% win rate. Blind passing-TD unders won 50.7% and lost 8.7%.
Blind overs were far worse. They lost between 4.7% and 12.9% in every market, because you pay the juice and take the side that loses more often.
Anytime touchdown props: the most expensive bet on the board
Anytime touchdown props are fun. They also carry the heaviest juice we measured. Most books offer only the “yes” side, so the price includes the book’s whole margin.
The price of a prop bet
Break-even at −110 is 52.4%, and betting every anytime touchdown lost almost a quarter of every dollar staked.
Betting “yes” on every anytime TD from 2023 to 2025 returned −24.1% on 18,403 bets. Our own model’s favorite touchdown picks still lost 15.9%. If you enjoy these bets, treat them as entertainment with a known cost.
Why sportsbooks shade lines toward the over
Casual bettors like rooting for things to happen. A receiver going over 60 yards is more fun to watch than one staying under. So recreational money piles onto overs.
Books respond in two ways. They hang the line slightly high, which makes the over a bit less likely to hit. Then they price the under a little more expensively, so the bettors who take it pay for the privilege.
There may also be a shape effect. Yardage totals are skewed: most games are ordinary, and a few are huge. If a line sits near a player’s average rather than his typical game, the under wins more often even without any shading.
The result is a market where the under tilt is real and well known. That is exactly why it is priced. To profit, you need something the line does not already reflect. Our projection model tried and fell short.
Common over/under beliefs, tested
Each card below gets a verdict: myth, real but priced (true, but the market already knows), small but real, or unproven.
- Real, but priced in
“Everyone loves overs, so just bet every under.”
Unders won 52–54% in most yardage and volume markets, but blind-under ROI ran from −2.3% to +0.4% at real prices (2023–25).
- Myth
“Anytime touchdown props are a cheap way to win big.”
Betting every anytime-TD “yes” returned −24.1% on 18,403 bets from 2023 to 2025.
- Real, but priced in
“Big underdogs will be chasing, so bet the quarterback’s pass attempts over.”
Trailing teams do throw more, but the line already knows. Big-underdog QB attempt overs won just 37.2% (n 86, 2025).
- Real, but priced in
“Big favorites run the ball late, so bet the running back’s rush attempts over.”
Rush-attempt overs for backs on 6.5-point favorites won only 43.2% (n 155, 2025). The script is already in the line.
What this means if you bet props
- Lean under, but only at a fair price. The tilt helps you pick a side. It does not pay the juice on its own.
- Shop the price. Half a point or ten cents of juice is the whole edge in these markets.
- Be careful with “trend” angles. Any angle that bets unders will look good in an under-heavy season like 2025. Compare it with betting every under, not with 50%.
- Skip the anytime TD habit unless you are paying for fun.
Our player props page shows the consensus line and price for every player this week, so you can see where the juice sits before you bet.
Frequently asked questions
What percentage of NFL player props go under?
From 2023 to 2025, unders won about 52–54% of the time in rushing yards, receptions, receiving yards, rush attempts, pass attempts and longest reception. Passing yards were near 50/50. Over rates in those under-leaning markets ranged from 45% to 48%.
Is betting every NFL prop under profitable?
Not reliably. Unders cost more than overs, so blind under betting returned between −2.3% and +0.4% per dollar from 2023 to 2025, depending on the market. Only rush attempts finished slightly positive, on one season of lines.
Do passing yards props go over or under more often?
Neither, really. The passing-yards over hit 51.4% in 2023, 48.7% in 2024 and 50.3% in 2025. Betting every passing-yards under lost 7.4% at consensus prices.
Why do sportsbooks set player prop lines high?
Recreational bettors prefer overs, so books can hang a slightly higher line and charge more for the under. Yardage totals are also skewed by a few huge games, so a line near a player’s average can sit above his typical result.
Are anytime touchdown props a bad bet?
On average, yes. Betting “yes” on every anytime touchdown from 2023 to 2025 returned −24.1% on 18,403 bets. Most books price only the yes side, so the full margin is built into that price.
What win rate do you need to beat −110 player props?
52.4%. At −110 you risk $110 to win $100, so you must win 110 of every 210 bets to break even. If the under is priced at −125, you need 55.6%.
More in How prop markets are priced
Sources and method
- The Odds API (historical and live player prop lines)
- nflverse data (play-by-play, schedules, weather, injuries, combine)
- National Council on Problem Gambling (1-800-GAMBLER)
- Responsible Gambling Council (Canada)
Research and analysis, not betting advice. Past results do not guarantee future returns; bet only what you can afford to lose.