RB · BUF · 75 lines since 2023
Ray Davis Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Ray Davis, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 5% — we make it 12%
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 7, under 14 (21 graded)
- Receiving yards over 5, under 4 (9 graded)
- Receptions over 1, under 2 (3 graded)
- Anytime TD over 9, under 29 (38 graded)
- Rush attempts over 0, under 2 (2 graded)
- Longest reception over 0, under 1 (1 graded)
Our calls on him: model 11–24 · Missed tackles 3–3 · Short week 2–1 · Starters out on defense 1–2 · Big favourite (6.5+) 0–2 · Light boxes 2–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 5% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 7.5 | 14 | 65% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 11 | 54% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 5% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 11% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 13 | 50% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 4.5 | 5 | 50% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 17.5 | 19 | 53% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 0.5 | 0 | 42% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 0.5 | 0 | 42% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 0.5 | 0 | 43% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush att | 5.5 | 5 | 49% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 25.5 | 23 | 45% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 17.5 | 30 | 73% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rush yds | 25.5 | 24 | 47% / 48% | 9 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rush yds | 26.5 | 28 | 52% / 51% | 12 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 2.5 | 0.8 | 45% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rush yds | 20.5 | 25 | 58% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 14% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 0.5 | 1.0 | 51% / 46% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 52% / 51% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 20 | 59% / 49% | 63 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 19 | 62% / 49% | 11 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 1.5 | 5.1 | 61% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 65% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 21.5 | 26 | 59% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 2.5 | 2.7 | 51% / 51% | 70 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 20.5 | 27 | 62% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 3.4 | 46% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 24.5 | 26 | 52% / 50% | 29 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 21.5 | 30 | 67% / 49% | 41 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 1.7 | 31% / 49% | 55 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rush yds | 47.5 | 15 | 6% / 50% | 97 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 14 | 56% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 13 | 61% / 51% | 11 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 16% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 0.5 | 2.8 | 57% / 47% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 15 | 46% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 4.8 | 36% / 50% | 29 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 2.5 | – | – / 51% | 14 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rush yds | 16.5 | – | – / 50% | 13 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 7.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Over 7.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 7.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W17 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 9.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 13.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 4.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 4.5 rush attempts (Light boxes, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 4.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 17.5 rush yds (Light boxes, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 0.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 5.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 25.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 17.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Over 25.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 26.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Over 20.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Over 20.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Over 0.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Over 16.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Over 16.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Over 16.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Over 13.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Over 1.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Over 21.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Over 20.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Over 20.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Over 21.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W6 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Under 47.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W4 Over 9.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Over 0.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W2 Under 9.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W2 Under 9.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology