WR · TB · 53 lines since 2023
Tez Johnson Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Tez Johnson, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 13% — we make it 10%
- Line 11.5 yds longest rec — we project 10 (P(over) 47%)
- Line 12.5 rec yds — we project 13 (P(over) 51%)
- Line 1.5 receptions — we project 1 (P(over) 46%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 5, under 5 (10 graded)
- Receptions over 6, under 4 (10 graded)
- Anytime TD over 4, under 16 (20 graded)
- Longest reception over 3, under 6 (9 graded)
Our calls on him: Pre-snap motion 2–1 · Short week 0–0 · model 12–10 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0 · Starters out on defense 2–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 13% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 11.5 | 10 | 47% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 13 | 51% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 42% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 10 | 52% / 51% | 17 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 72% / 67% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 14.5 | 13 | 47% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 18 | 49% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 55% / 58% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 16.5 | 15 | 47% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 22 | 46% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 38% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 17.5 | 16 | 46% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 26 | 41% / 49% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 47% / 52% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 17.5 | 16 | 44% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 25 | 40% / 52% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 55% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 20.5 | 19 | 45% / 49% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 29 | 33% / 51% | 42 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 26% / 54% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 20.5 | 15 | 38% / 51% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 20 | 25% / 50% | 43 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 12% / 45% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 13% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 9.5 | 17 | 68% / 51% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 24 | 70% / 50% | 58 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 61% / 39% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 17.5 | 11 | 35% / 49% | 45 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 15 | 28% / 51% | 45 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 25% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 3.5 | 0 | 40% / 51% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 3.5 | 0 | 41% / 51% | 59 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 0.5 | 0 | 48% / 52% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 9% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Over 13.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W5 Under 13.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W4 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W16 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 18.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 32.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 32.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 32.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 32.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 44.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 42.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 42.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 11.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 3.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 3.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 3.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology