Who to start · 2025-26
Connor Hellebuyck vs Mackenzie Blackwood
In 2025-26, Connor Hellebuyck posted a .895 save percentage to Mackenzie Blackwood's .903.
Against our expected-goals model, Hellebuyck saved +1.1 goals and Blackwood +5.5.
This week Hellebuyck has 1 game left (about 0.2 expected starts); Blackwood has 1 left (about 0.7 expected starts). We project Blackwood for 1.6 ESPN points to Hellebuyck's 0.5.
Mackenzie Blackwood has the better number in 6 of the 11 stats both are ranked on.
Hellebuyck's biggest edges: Overtime losses 11, Saves 1,385, Games started 57.
Blackwood's biggest edges: Shutouts 3, Goals against 90, Goals-against average 2.50.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 W, .871 SV%.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Connor Hellebuyck
0.98
fantasy points per game
Mackenzie Blackwood
2.35
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Mackenzie Blackwood has the edge.
| Points per game from | Hellebuyck | Blackwood |
|---|---|---|
| Wins (+4) | 1.61 | 2.36 |
| Goals against (-2) | -5.68 | -4.62 |
| Saves (+0.2) | 4.86 | 4.32 |
| Shutouts (+3) | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| OT losses (+1) | 0.19 | 0.05 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Hellebuyck vs Blackwood
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2019-20 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Hellebuyck | Blackwood |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | WPG 4–2 COL | 21/23 SV | 17/20 SV |
| 2026-03-26 | WPG 2–3 COL | 32/35 SV | 22/24 SV |
| 2026-03-14 | WPG 3–1 COL | 28/29 SV | 16/18 SV |
| 2025-12-19 | WPG 2–3 COL | 23/26 SV | 0/0 SV |
| 2025-01-22 | WPG 3–2 COL | 25/27 SV | 22/25 SV |
| 2025-01-11 | WPG 3–0 COL | 22/22 SV | 26/28 SV |
| 2024-12-31 | WPG 2–5 COL | 0/0 SV | 20/22 SV |
| 2024-10-18 | WPG 8–3 SJS | 19/22 SV | 13/18 SV |
| 2024-02-14 | WPG 1–0 SJS | 17/17 SV | 0/0 SV |
| 2024-01-04 | WPG 2–1 SJS | 27/28 SV | 28/30 SV |
| 2023-12-12 | WPG 1–2 SJS | 0/0 SV | 36/37 SV |
| 2023-04-02 | WPG 6–1 NJD | 31/32 SV | 4/6 SV |
Latest 12 of 16 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Connor Hellebuyck
2games (1 left)
0.5proj. ESPN pts
About 0.2 expected starts
- Fri, Oct 2 vs BOSOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to GLikely vs Jeremy Swayman (.908)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ DET20% to start0.5 ptsLikely vs John Gibson (.901)
Mackenzie Blackwood
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
About 0.7 expected starts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows 12th-most FP to GLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL74% to start1.6 ptsSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Connor Hellebuyck or Mackenzie Blackwood?
- In 2025-26, Connor Hellebuyck posted a .895 save percentage to Mackenzie Blackwood's .903. Against our expected-goals model, Hellebuyck saved +1.1 goals and Blackwood +5.5. Confirm the starter on game day; workload and back-to-backs decide most goalie starts.
- Who is better, Connor Hellebuyck or Mackenzie Blackwood?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Mackenzie Blackwood leads in 6 of 11 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Hellebuyck and Blackwood done against each other?
- In 16 games against each other in our data, Hellebuyck's team went 10–6.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →