Who to start · 2025-26
Connor Hellebuyck vs Philipp Grubauer
In 2025-26, Connor Hellebuyck posted a .895 save percentage to Philipp Grubauer's .909.
Against our expected-goals model, Hellebuyck saved +1.1 goals and Grubauer +8.5.
This week Hellebuyck has 1 game left (about 0.2 expected starts) with 1 soft matchup; Grubauer has 2 left (about 0.5 expected starts) with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. We project Grubauer for 1.0 ESPN points to Hellebuyck's 0.5.
They split the 11 stats both are ranked on 5–5.
Hellebuyck's biggest edges: Saves 1,385, Games started 57, Overtime losses 11.
Grubauer's biggest edges: Goals against 79, Save % .909, Goals-against average 2.65.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Connor Hellebuyck
0.98
fantasy points per game
Philipp Grubauer
1.73
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Philipp Grubauer has the edge.
| Points per game from | Hellebuyck | Grubauer |
|---|---|---|
| Wins (+4) | 1.61 | 1.63 |
| Goals against (-2) | -5.68 | -4.94 |
| Saves (+0.2) | 4.86 | 4.92 |
| Shutouts (+3) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| OT losses (+1) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Hellebuyck vs Grubauer
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Hellebuyck | Grubauer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | WPG 6–2 SEA | 22/24 SV | 15/18 SV |
| 2025-11-13 | WPG 3–5 SEA | 13/17 SV | 23/26 SV |
| 2025-03-16 | WPG 3–2 SEA | 5/6 SV | 0/0 SV |
| 2025-01-16 | WPG 2–1 SEA | 17/18 SV | 0/0 SV |
| 2024-10-24 | WPG 4–3 SEA | 29/32 SV | 0/0 SV |
| 2024-04-16 | WPG 4–3 SEA | 20/23 SV | 20/24 SV |
| 2024-03-08 | WPG 3–0 SEA | 0/0 SV | 0/0 SV |
| 2024-03-05 | WPG 3–4 SEA | 20/24 SV | 0/0 SV |
| 2022-12-18 | WPG 2–3 SEA | 0/0 SV | 15/17 SV |
| 2022-05-01 | WPG 4–3 SEA | 0/0 SV | 0/0 SV |
| 2022-02-17 | WPG 5–3 SEA | 0/0 SV | 24/28 SV |
| 2021-12-09 | WPG 3–0 SEA | 25/25 SV | 30/33 SV |
Latest 12 of 20 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Connor Hellebuyck
2games (1 left)
0.5proj. ESPN pts
About 0.2 expected starts
- Fri, Oct 2 vs BOSOpp allows 11th-fewest FP to GLikely vs Jeremy Swayman (.908)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ DET20% to start0.5 ptsOpp allows 3rd-most FP to GLikely vs John Gibson (.901)
Philipp Grubauer
3games (2 left)
1.0proj. ESPN pts
About 0.5 expected starts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ CGYOpp allows 4th-most FP to GLikely vs Dustin Wolf (.899)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ EDM11% to start0.1 ptsOpp allows 8th-fewest FP to GLikely vs Tristan Jarry (.882)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs CGYB2B43% to start0.8 ptsOpp allows 4th-most FP to GLikely vs Dustin Wolf (.899)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Connor Hellebuyck or Philipp Grubauer?
- In 2025-26, Connor Hellebuyck posted a .895 save percentage to Philipp Grubauer's .909. Against our expected-goals model, Hellebuyck saved +1.1 goals and Grubauer +8.5. Confirm the starter on game day; workload and back-to-backs decide most goalie starts.
- Who is better, Connor Hellebuyck or Philipp Grubauer?
- On 2025-26 numbers they split 5–5 across 11 stats where both qualify.
- How have Hellebuyck and Grubauer done against each other?
- In 20 games against each other in our data, Hellebuyck's team went 13–7.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →