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Stack Finder: best line and PP1 stacks for Wednesday, Feb 25

Every forward line and first power-play unit on the Wednesday, Feb 25 slate, ranked by expected goals tonight against the opponent's defense, penalty kill and likely goalie. Top stack: COL L1 (Lehkonen–MacKinnon–Nichushkin) vs UTA.

Data updated:

Stacks with a player who is

Top 10 stacks

  1. #1COLL1vs UTA0.85 xG

    Artturi Lehkonen77%, Nathan MacKinnon100%, Valeri Nichushkin52%

    Matchup factors →
  2. #2EDMPP1vs ANA0.73 xG

    Zach Hyman95%, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins74%, Leon Draisaitl100%, Connor McDavid100%, Evan Bouchard100%

    Matchup factors →
  3. #3TBLL2vs TOR0.70 xG

    Nikita Kucherov100%, Jake Guentzel100%, Brandon Hagel100%

    Matchup factors →
  4. #4DALPP1vs SEA0.69 xG

    Mikko Rantanen98%, Roope Hintz83%, Jason Robertson100%, Miro Heiskanen100%, Wyatt Johnston99%

    Matchup factors →
  5. #5TORL2vs TBL0.68 xG

    John Tavares95%, William Nylander99%, Matias Maccelli13%

    Matchup factors →
  6. #6TORL1vs TBL0.65 xG

    Max Domi4.9%, Auston Matthews99%, Bobby McMann49%

    Matchup factors →
  7. #7ANAL1vs EDM0.58 xG

    Alex Killorn5.1%, Mikael Granlund67%, Beckett Sennecke95%

    Matchup factors →
  8. #8WPGPP1vs VAN0.54 xG

    Mark Scheifele98%, Josh Morrissey98%, Kyle Connor99%, Gabriel Vilardi74%, Cole Perfetti83%

    Matchup factors →
  9. #9BUFL1vs NJD0.54 xG

    Jason Zucker22%, Ryan McLeod22%, Jack Quinn51%

    Matchup factors →
  10. #10COLL2vs UTA0.52 xG

    Parker Kelly20%, Jack Drury4.8%, Joel Kiviranta0.1%

    Matchup factors →

By game

BUF @ NJD

PHI @ WSH

TOR @ TBL

SEA @ DAL

COL @ UTA

WPG @ VAN

VGK @ LAK

EDM @ ANA

How it works

  1. Lines and PP1 come from each team's last three games of shift data: the forward trio with the most 5-on-5 time together, and the power-play five with the most time together.
  2. Unit strength is expected goals for per 60 minutes, recent games plus the season, shrunk toward league average so a hot two-game sample does not dominate.
  3. Matchup: the opponent's 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 (for lines) or its penalty-kill rate and shorthanded minutes (for PP1), relative to the league.
  4. Goalie: the likely opposing starter from our goalie start model, weighted by probability, with his save % shrunk toward league average; shot-class save % when available.
  5. Stack score = rate × minutes × P(unit intact) × matchup × goalie, in expected goals for tonight, so lines and power plays rank on one scale.

Methodology: How we detect lines · Expected goals · Goalie shot classes · Goalie start model

Frequently asked questions

What is a stack in fantasy hockey?

A stack is a group of teammates who play together, usually a forward line or the first power-play unit, so one goal pays several of your players at once. It is the main strategy in daily fantasy hockey.

How are stacks ranked?

Each unit gets an expected-goals number for tonight: how many chances it creates per 60 minutes (recent games plus season, shrunk toward league average), how many minutes it plays, how likely it is to stay together, how leaky the opponent is at 5-on-5 or shorthanded, and how good the likely opposing goalie is.

Where do the lines come from?

From the NHL shift charts of each team's last three games: the three forwards who share the most 5-on-5 ice time form a line, and the five skaters with the most power-play time together form PP1.

Why does it say "shot-based"?

While a season is being reprocessed with our expected-goals model, unit rates fall back to shots on goal times a league-average 0.075 xG per shot. The ranking logic is the same.