Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W8 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 9.6 | 29.1 | +19.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.5 | 3.9 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 8.5 | 14.1 | +5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 2.2 | 2.9 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.1 | 7.3 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 7.1 | 12.6 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 9.3 | 13.1 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 3.4 | 10.9 | +7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tank DellWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 11.5 | 13.5 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 5.7 | 28.9 | +23.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 10.3 | 22.2 | +11.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 8.2 | 16.8 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 8.6 | 13.6 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 8.3 | 11.4 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.2 | 19.2 | +16.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 19.3 | 29.8 | +10.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.2 | 5.4 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 5.8 | 9.2 | +3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 9.1 | 23.1 | +14.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 9.4 | 18.0 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jayden DanielsQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 19.5 | 22.2 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 13.7 | 29.1 | +15.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 10.6 | 14.0 | +3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 12.0 | 16.6 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 15.7 | 20.6 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 5.1 | 22.6 | +17.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.9 | 17.7 | +14.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 24.3 | 34.4 | +10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 15.4 | 26.7 | +11.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 19.8 | 21.0 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Olamide ZaccheausWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 5.6 | 6.5 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 16.7 | 20.2 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 5.9 | 7.5 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Noah FantTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 6.3 | 10.5 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 14.9 | 20.2 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Van JeffersonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 4.6 | 9.5 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 10.7 | 22.1 | +11.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 4.1 | 7.7 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 9.3 | 13.5 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 8.6 | 10.1 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 12.4 | 26.1 | +13.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 8.5 | 11.1 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 17.3 | 18.3 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | George PickensWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 13.2 | 22.1 | +8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 6.8 | 13.5 | +6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 3.3 | 7.1 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 10.2 | 17.4 | +7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 16.4 | 23.3 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 6.8 | 13.8 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 1.8 | 7.6 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 3.7 | 18.1 | +14.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 7.9 | 12.3 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 9.7 | 10.5 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 16.4 | 32.0 | +15.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Bub MeansWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 5.2 | 6.7 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 5.2 | 10.5 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.7 | 1.5 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.1 | 2.9 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 7.8 | 16.5 | +8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.2 | 8.6 | +8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 14.3 | 17.8 | +3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.7 | 10.6 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | DeAndre HopkinsWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 8.5 | 9.4 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyler LockettWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 10.8 | 16.5 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 7.2 | 13.1 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 5.6 | 7.4 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 12.3 | 22.8 | +10.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 8.6 | 18.2 | +9.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 3.5 | 6.6 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 12.6 | 15.3 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 9.1 | 23.4 | +14.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 17.4 | 25.9 | +8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 16.5 | 24.4 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 3.6 | 7.4 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 16.8 | 17.8 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.1 | 2.1 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 12.8 | 21.0 | +8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 13.3 | 20.7 | +7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.5 | 3.8 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 4.9 | 7.8 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.9 | 7.9 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Gabe DavisWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 8.8 | 21.5 | +12.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.3 | 6.0 | +4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 19.5 | 21.9 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 18.7 | 19.8 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 14.1 | 20.2 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Justin FieldsQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 15.6 | 23.7 | +8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 8.8 | 10.0 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 15.8 | 17.1 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.8 | 10.7 | +8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 8.0 | 19.8 | +11.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 1.2 | 2.0 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 16.0 | 24.7 | +8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 18.1 | 24.1 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 15.1 | 21.9 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 14.8 | 20.9 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 17.5 | 25.5 | +8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 8.6 | 14.4 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.3 | 14.9 | +12.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 7.7 | 21.2 | +13.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse